Hong Kong Golf Club is a par 70 measuring 6,710 yards. LIV will be using the “Fanling Course” for the event.

While speaking with Asian Tour player Travis Smyth, he gave me a rundown on what it takes to be successful at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“Hong Kong golf club, it’s pretty old school, like super short and tight. And I, I don’t think it falls into like a bomber’s hand. I think you’ll see a lot of guys hitting it to roughly the same spots on the majority of the holes. There’s a few holes where Bryson will be able to unleash a few but not many. When I played here, I hit Hybrid on Par 4’s off the tee maybe like seven times.”

Travis also said that the tight fairways and penal potential misses will keep the bombers at bay.

“It’s just that sort of course you’re hitting it like anywhere from 220 to 240 off the tee. And then from there you have a range of holes where it’s like kind of some sort of wedge or nine. It’s not very long.”

Around the green game will also be tremendously important at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“The greens are small as well and it’s usually quite hard to get up and down if you miss the greens. Someone like Cameron Smith I could see doing really well there. He played well in the international series. but just someone that’s, you know, pretty dolled in with their, their scoring clubs, he’s probably going to do well there.”

Players dialed in with their game from tee to green with control over the golf ball should fare extremely well.

“You can’t really scramble from the trees either. So, you really just have to. I’d, yeah, just whoever’s the best ball striker that week, you can’t really strap it around and fake it around there. You got to hit it straight. The tree lines are dead, there’s some hazards and stuff. It’s a short, tight quirky course, not what any of these guys are probably used to.”

Despite it being short, don’t be surprised if it gives players some real trouble.

“It should be fun viewing because there’ll be a lot of opportunities. They’ll feel like they can go low around there because it’s short but, you know, you make a few bogeys, and you get quite frustrated, and you start pushing off the tee and find some trouble and stuff. It can eat you up as well.”

Smyth finished 2nd at Hong Kong Golf Club to qualify for the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

Past Winners at Hong Kong Golf Club

• 2023: Ben Campbell (-19)
• 2022: Wade Ormsby (-17)
• 2018: Aaron Rai (-17)
• 2017: Wade Ormsby (-11)
• 2016: Sam Brazel (-13)
• 2015: Justin Rose (-19)
• 2014: Scott Hend (-13)
• 2013: Miguel Angel Jiminez (-12)

The top of the board once again will be a major threat this week. Jon Rahm is still in search of his first win on LIV and has been knocking at the door in each of his first three starts. Brooks Koepka hasn’t yet contended but is playing steady golf and has yet to shoot a round outside of the 60’s this season. Joaquin Niemann is the hottest player on the planet and has shown no signs of slowing down.

However, on a golf course that can neutralize the big hitters, this is an event that seems a bit more up for grabs than we’ve seen in the first three LIV events.

LIV Golf Stats YTD

2024 LIV Hong Kong Picks

Cameron Smith +2000 (Bet365, BetRivers)

It’s been a slow start for Cam Smith this season. In his three starts on LIV, he’s finished T8, T15, T41 and has yet to look like the Cam that is one of the best players in the world. Hong Kong Golf Club should be the perfect course fit to get the former Open Champion out of his slump.

Hong Kong Golf Club is tight off the tee, and many players won’t be able to hit driver. That will neutralize some of the best drivers of the golf ball in the field and propel players like Cam, who are almost unbeatable from fairway to green. Cam’s driver has been a weakness throughout his career, and it’s been especially pronounced this season. He’s tied for 51st in fairways hit thus far on the season. Taking driver out of his hand this week could be exactly what he needs to get on track.

Despite the poor tee balls, Smith still ranks 1st in putting and 5th in birdies made. He’s also a great scrambler, and with small greens at the course, having to get up and down is inevitable. If he can play from the fairway this week, he should have a major advantage in the other facets of the game.

Louis Oosthuizen +2000 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen should be an absolutely perfect fit for Hong Kong Golf Club. The South African has been remarkably consistent over the past few months dating back to the fall, where he won two consecutive DP World Tour events and also finished 2nd at the International Series Oman. In his three LIV starts this year, Louis has finished T8 at LIV Mayakoba, 50th at LIV Las Vegas and T2 at LIV Jeddah.

Louis is relatively short off the tee and that won’t hurt him this week. He is one of the best putters and scrambler on LIV, and his silky-smooth swing looks as dialed in as ever at the moment. He’s yet to win a LIV event, but a victory for Louis seems imminent.

Patrick Reed +5000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Reed is another play who’s yet to win a LIV event but has been a winner throughout his entire career. The former Masters champion should love Hong Kong Golf Club as it will play to his strengths on and around the greens.

Reed played on the Asian Tour this fall and finished T15 at the Hong Kong Open and T7 at the Indonesian Masters. The experience in Asia this season should be a benefit for Reed acclimating to the travel and conditions this week.

The 34-year-old should benefit from taking driver out of his hand and similar to Smith, can beat anyone in the world if the tournament become a short game competition.

*Featured Image and Stats Image courtesy of LIV Golf*

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par-72 measuring 7,454 yards featuring Bermudagrass greens. Bay Hill can play extremely difficult if the wind picks up, but the course certainly has teeth whether there is wind or not.

The event being “signature” just about guarantees that all of the top players on TOUR will be in attendance this week. Of the 55 players eligible entering last week, only Tony Finau will not be in the field. 

Past Winners at Bay Hill

• 2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
• 2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
• 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
• 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
• 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
• 2017: Marc Leishman (-11)
• 2016: Jason Day (-17)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats For Bay Hill

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for Bay Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach is often the most important statistic, and this week will be no different. This is a difficult golf course, and players will be penalized for missing greens in regulation.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

1. Matthieu Pavon (+1.61)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.31)
3. Tom Hoge (+1.18)
4. Adam Scott (+0.93)
5. Tom Kim (+0.78)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

To compete at Bay Hill, golfers will need an excellent performance off the tee. Distance is important due to the length of the course and its layout, but accuracy is just as important.

We have seen recent events in which golfers can get away with bad tee shots, but Bay Hill isn’t one of those courses. The rough is extremely thick and penal, so saving par after a poor tee shot isn’t likely.

SG: OTT Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Rory McIlroy (+1.12) 
2. Scottie Scheffler (+0.69)
3. Sam Burns (+0.69)
4. Xander Schauffele (+0.67)
5. Min Woo Lee (+0.66)

3. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Fast)

A major reason Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on TOUR is the incredibly fast greens. The Bermuda putting surfaces will be some of the fastest players see all season long.

SG: Putting (Bermuda and Fast) over past 24 rounds:

1. Mackenzie Hughes (+1.08)
2. Xander Schauffele (+0.93) 
3. Harris English (+0.82) 
4. Eric Cole (+0.77)
5. Adam Svensson (+0.69)

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

While ball-striking is in part off the tee and approach, I want the total tee-to-green package built into the model this week as it will take a well-rounded effort from tee to green to get it done at Bay Hill.

SG: BS Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Matthieu Pavon (+2.01)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.00)
3. Xander Schauffele (+1.38)
4. Adam Scott (+1.28)
5. Corey Conners (+1.21)

5. Strokes Gained: Florida

With certain players favoring different regions of the country, I’m once again going to incorporate Strokes Gained: Total in the state of Florida.

SG: Florida Over Past 36 Rounds

1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.10)
2. Viktor Hovland (+1.87)
3. Rory McIlroy (+1.82) 
4. Justin Thomas (+1.68)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.62)

Arnold Palmer Invitational Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories discussed above — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (25%), SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Lightning (18%), SG: Ball Striking (20%) and SG: Florida (12%).

1. Xander Schauffele 
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Adam Svensson 
4. Sam Burns 
5. Kurt Kitayama
6. Corey Conners
7. Justin Thomas
8. Cameron Young
9. Wyndham Clark
10. Tom Kim

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Rory McIlroy +900 (DraftKings)

Rory McIlroy is coming off a T22 finish at the Cognizant Classic where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (+6.44) and also gained 1.6 strokes on approach. Rory has played sparingly so far this season, so the solid finish last week in Florida was a good way for the Northern Irishman to gain some momentum heading into the signature event at Bay Hill.

Rory has been absolutely spectacular at Bay Hill throughout his career. In his last seven trips to the course, the four-time major champion is yet to finish worse than 13th. He won the event in 2018 and has finished 4th in 2017, 5th in 2020, and runner-up last season.

In his past 24 rounds, Rory ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (by a significant margin), 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida and 6th in Strokes Gained: Putting on firm and fast Bermudgrass greens.

Thus far in 2024, the big names haven’t been winning on the PGA Tour. I believe that changes with a Rory McIlroy victory at one of the world’s most iconic courses.

Tommy Fleetwood +2800 (FanDuel)

Tommy Fleetwood has played great golf in the state of Florida throughout his career. The Englishman has eight career top-10 finishes in the Sunshine State, including three of them at Bay Hill (2017, 2019 and 2021). 

Although Tommy hasn’t been known as a “winner” in the United States throughout his career, it seems as if the 33-year-old turned a last season. He had ten top-ten’s worldwide including some encouraging results in big events such as T5’s at the Wells Fargo Championship and the U.S. Open. He’s also started 2024 similarly to how he played in 2023, winning the Dubai Invitational back in January. In his most recent start, Fleetwood finished 10th at the Genesis Invitational. 

Tommy may have never won on American soil, but he’s taken his game to another level. He’s now one of the best players on the PGA Tour and a tough scoring, windy event in Florida would be a perfect scenario for Fleetwood to finally get that first victory in the United States. 

Royal Greens Golf & Country Club is a par-72 that measures 7,010 yards. There is plenty of water on the course and it features large greens and numerous sand traps. The fairways are Zoysia grass and the greens are Paspalum. The course has hosted several prestigious events in the past including the Saudi International, LIV Golf Jeddah, the Aramco Team Series and the Aramco Saudi Ladies International. The course is undoubtedly one of the best tracks that the Middle East has to offer. 

LIV Jeddah will be absolutely loaded with storylines this week. Perhaps the most exciting of them all is the return of Anthony Kim to professional golf.

Last seen at Quail Hollow in the 2012 Wells Fargo Championship, the golf world often wondered aloud what ever happened to the charismatic party boy who once played a major role in the United States 2008 Ryder Cup win at Valhalla, thrashing Ryder Cup legend Sergio Garcia 5&4 in a singles match.

Throwback to one of the most ultimate “in the zone” moments from golf history. After dispatching Sergio in the ‘08 Ryder Cup, Anthony Kim walked straight to the next tee without realising he had closed out the match. That’s focus!@ewanports

pic.twitter.com/0dDPtwzXYK

— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) August 28, 2023

Six months later, “AK” made eleven birdies in a single round at Augusta National, shooting a -7 (65). The following year, Kim would finish 3rd at The Masters.

Kim was a “can’t miss” star who was poised to be near the top of the world rankings for the next decade. Until he wasn’t.

Starting in around 2010, injuries started to derail AK, causing him to have surgery on his Achilles tendon in June of 2012.

Reportedly, the then 26-year-old cashed in on an insurance policy that paid him somewhere between $10 and $20 million, which would force him into retirement.

Twelve years later, Kim will be playing at Royal Greens Golf & Country Club beginning on Friday this week.

There is still a great deal of mystery regarding what’s occurred in the past twelve years, but reports indicate that Kim is receiving somewhere between $5 and $10 million to sign with LIV Golf.

Details aside, Kim’s return to golf should be absolutely captivating.

Anthony Kim hitting the range in Jeddah. ?

(?: @carters_golf) pic.twitter.com/smQc0lb5Ia

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 27, 2024

Past Winners at LIV Jeddah

• 2023: Brooks Koepka (-14)
• 2022: Brooks Koepka (-12)

Past Winners at the Saudi International

• • 2023: Abraham Ancer (-19)
  • 2022:Harold Varner III (-13)
  • 2021: Dustin Johnson (-15)
  • 2020: Graeme McDowell (-12)
  • 2019: Dustin Johnson (-19)

The top of the odds board will be tough to beat this week. Jon Rahm has played well to start the year but still hasn’t gotten in the winner’s circle. He ought to be hungry to get it done this week. Brooks Koepka has won the event two straight years and is a force to be reckoned with. Dustin Johnson has a staggering record at Royal Greens Golf & Country Club. In six trips to the course, he’s finished in the top-8 each time including two wins and a runner-up. 

Stats From LIV Las Vegas

2024 LIV Jeddah Picks

Sergio Garcia (+2500 FanDuel)

Sergio Garcia began his 2024 LIV Golf season with a bang, losing in a four-hole playoff to the Chilean superstar Joaquin Niemann at LIV Golf Mayakoba. Despite the runner-up finish, it was an encouraging start to the season for the former Masters Champion.

Garcia’s strong week didn’t directly follow him to LIV Las Vegas, where he finished 26th, but the unfamiliar course didn’t necessarily fit his skill set. Royal Greens Golf & Country Club is a relatively short course that can get extremely windy. Garcia still has the iron game to compete with the elite players in this field, and is a great wind player and shot maker. 

In Sergio’s seven trips to the course, he’s finished in the top-6 three times, and finished 3rd in both of LIV’s trips to Jeddah. 

The 44-year-old can still stripe it and my gut tells me he will be a part of the story late on Sunday. 

Paul Casey (+3500 DraftKings)

I’ve been extremely high on Casey to kick off 2024 and thus far things have gone extremely well for the Englishman. In his two starts this season, Casey has finished in a tie for 11th and a tie for 5th, and was the first-round leader at LIV Las Vegas. 

Casey has had success at Royal Greens Golf & Country Club and has finished 5th in two of his past three trips to the golf course. The 46-year-old is a superb ball striker and wind player when he’s healthy, and all signs point to him finally being back to full strength. 

In Vegas, Casey led the field in birdies made (tied with a few at the top), and finished in the top ten in both fairways hit and greens in regulation. 

Veterans have done well on LIV to date, and Casey may be next in line of players on the back nine of their careers who show they still have the game to compete with some of the world’s best. 

Matt Wolff (+4100 FanDuel)

The mercurial Matt Wolff has seemingly found a comfortable home with the RangeGoats and has been playing his best golf to date on LIV in his two starts this season. Wolff finished 4th at LIV Las Vegas and followed that up with a tie for 7th place finish at the Asian Tour’s International Series Oman. 

In his past four trips to the course, the 23-year-old (Wow! He’s still only 23?) has finished in the top-10 three times. 

The Oklahoma State product was once tabbed as a future superstar, and it’s still far too early to give up on such a talented player. A win is coming soon. 

Bubba Watson (+8000 FanDuel)

It’s been a long road back for Bubba Watson since he had surgery to repair his meniscus a few years ago, but the two-time Masters champion is beginning to show some signs that he may once again be healthy enough to complete.

In his two starts this season, Bubba has finished T21 (Mayakoba) and T15 (Vegas). Watson has always been a player who plays “his” tracks well, with multiple wins at Augusta, Riviera and TPC River Highlands. With a few more cracks at it, Royal Greens Golf & Country Club could certainly be one of those courses. He’s only played the course three times, but has a 2nd place finish in 2022 when he lost to Harold Varner III in a playoff.

In Vegas, Watson was 7th in the field in Greens in Regulation. When he’s on his game, there are few players more fun to watch than Bubba. 

The tournament will be a significant challenge for golfers, as PGA National is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA TOUR.

PGA National is a 7,054-yard par 71 and features Bermudagrass greens.  Originally a Tom Fazio design, it was redesigned by Jack Nicklaus. The course features the infamous “Bear Trap” on holes 15-17, three of the toughest holes on TOUR. Wind tends to play a factor, which makes the scoring even more challenging.

The field is solid and much stronger than we saw last year with the event being directly after two signature events. Some notable players in the field include Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Min Woo Lee, Russell Henley and Gary Woodland. 

Past Winners at PGA National

• 2023: Chris Kirk (-14)
• 2022: Sepp Straka (-10)
• 2021: Matt Jones (-12)
• 2020: Sungjae Im (-6)
• 2019: Keith Mitchell (-9)
• 2018: Justin Thomas (-8)
• 2017: Rickie Fowler (-12)
• 2016: Adam Scott (-9)
• 2015: Padraig Harrington (-6)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for PGA National

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for PGA National to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has been far and away the biggest indicator of the winner at PGA National. Hitting the target is especially important with all of the water at the course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Tom Hoge (+1.08) 
2. Mathieu Pavon (+1.07)
3. Chesson Hadley (+.68)
4. Michael Kim (+.67) 
5. Adam Svensson (+.66)

2. Strokes Gained: Putting Bermuda (Florida)

As we enter the Florida swing, players will have to adjust to the Florida Bermudagrass greens, which favors some golfers who are more accustomed to playing the surface over others.

Strokes Gained: Putting Bermuda (Florida) over past 24 Rounds:

1. Beau Hossler (+1.05)
2. Matt Fitzpatrick (+.87)
3. Sungjae Im (+.81)
4. Ben Martin (+.75)
5. Denny McCarthy (+.71)

3. Strokes Gained Total: Florida

This stat will bring in players who’ve played their best golf in the state of Florida.

Strokes Gained Total: Florida Over Past 36 Rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+1.72)
2. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.62)
3. Shane Lowry (+1.44)
4. Sungjae Im (+1.32) 
5. Chris Kirk (+1.30)

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Historically, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking has been much more indicative of success at PGA National than Strokes Gained: Short Game. The difficult track rewards a solid tee-to-green game, which is the key to avoiding trouble.

The winning score will likely stay close to single digits, so an extremely hot putter isn’t all that predictive. 

SG: BS Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Corey Conners (+21.1)
2. Jhonnatan Vegas (+19.5)
3. Adam Svensson (+19.3)
4. Mathieu Pavon (+18.6) 
5. Tom Hoge (+18.3) 

5. Strokes Gained: Difficult or Very Difficult Courses

PGA National is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA TOUR. Including this stat will highlight some players who thrive when scoring is difficult.

Strokes Gained: Difficult Courses Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Rory McIlroy (+2.62)
2. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.59) 
3. Tom Kim (+1.59) 
4. Jake Knapp (+1.55)
5. Shane Lowry (+1.34)

Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Putting Florida Bermuda (15.3%), SG: Florida 15.3%), SG: Ball Striking (27%) and SG: Difficult Scoring(15.3%).

1. Chris Kirk
2. Daniel Berger
3. Jhonnatan Vegas
4. Corey Conners
5. Adam Svensson
6. Rory McIlroy
7. Tom Hoge
8. Shane Lowry
9. Sepp Straka
10. Kevin Streelman

2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches Picks

(All odds are the best available at the time of writing)

Cameron Young +2200 (BetMGM)

Cameron Young has yet to break out with a PGA Tour win, but PGA National is a good course for the former PGA Tour Rookie of the Year to showcase his elite driving ability. In his past 24 rounds, Young ranks 1st in Total Driving.

PGA National isn’t the longest course, but with water lurking everywhere, it helps to hit approach shots with higher lofted clubs. Bombers such as Rory McIlroy, Keith Mitchell, and Brooks Koepka have thrived at the course in the recent years, and Young could look to replicate their play style here.

Young has had a strong start to his 2024 season, finishing in a tie for 8th at TPC Scottsdale and a tie for 16th at Riviera. In those two starts, he gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach. He also finished 16th in his debut at the Honda Classic in 2022. With two additional top-13 finishes at Bay Hill, the 26-year-old has shown he likes playing in Florida.

With the fields in 2024 weaker than in recent seasons, Young is one of the best players teeing it up this week and has the talent to come out on top.

Shane Lowry +3500 (DraftKings)

Shane Lowry has been very quiet this season, but he’ll now kick off the Florida swing, which is the part of the PGA Tour schedule that he’s had most success at over the course of his PGA Tour career.

In his past eight starts in the state of Florida, the Irishman has finished in the top-13 five times, including a runner-up at PGA National in 2022 and a tie for 5th here last year. The former Open champion is a resident of Jupiter, Florida and is extremely comfortable playing on these Bermudagrass greens.

Lowry is typically amongst the favorites at PGA National, but this year is being offered at a bit of a discount due to his underwhelming start to the season. If the course plays difficult, which it typically does, there are few players I’d rather have than Shane Lowry on my betting card.

Byeong Hun An +4000 (DraftKings)

I’ve bet Byeong Hun An a few times this year and it almost paid off when the South Korean lost in agonizing fashion in a playoff to Grayson Murray at the Sony Open. Given his current form and excellent course fit, I feel compelled to give the affable An one more shot at PGA National this week.

An is a great driver of the ball and ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 4th in Carry Distance. With danger lurking on almost every hole, longer hitters will have the advantage coming in with shorter irons. While not typically the most reliable putter, Benny ranks 18th in the field in his past eight rounds on Bermudagrass.

In addition to his strong start to the season, An has also had plenty of success at PGA National. He finished in a tie for 4th at the course in 2020 and tied for 5th in 2018. If he can avoid the water, we may finally get to celebrate a Benny An victory this week.

Corey Conners +5000 (FanDuel)

On a difficult course that produces relatively high scores such as PGA National, players who are accurate both off the tee and on approach will have the advantage. In his past 24 rounds, the Canadian ranks 4th in Total Driving and 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the tee.

Conners is another player who has thrived in Florida. In his past seven starts in the state, he’s finished in the top 21 five times. The course history at PGA National hasn’t been great, but I am willing to overlook that in favor of his overall form in the state and his apparent course fit.

A few weeks ago, at Riviera, Conners’ signature iron play came back to life as he gained 5.04 strokes on the field on approach. If he can make some putts on Bermudagrass, which has been his favorite surface to date, there’s no reason why he can’t contend at PGA National this week.

Alex Noren +5000 (FanDuel)

Despite never having won on the PGA Tour, Alex Noren has racked up 11 total wins professionally, and has come close many times in the United States. The Swede has played on a winning European Ryder Cup team (2018) and has won big events in Europe such as the BMW PGA Championship and British Masters.

Noren is a tremendous wind player who has enjoyed plenty of success at PGA National throughout his career. He finished in a tie for 5th at this event in 2022 and finished 3rd back in 2018. Noren ranks 15th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on Florida Bermudagrass and 20th in three putt avoidance on the surface.

If the course plays as difficult as expected, the 41-year-old is the type of grinder who can contend on one of his favorite tracks.

Matt Wallace +10000 (FanDuel)

Matt Wallace demonstrated his ability to play well on a tough Florida track at last year’s Valspar Championship, where he finished in a tie for 7th. The Englishman has also played reasonably well at PGA National, finishing 29th last year and tied for 20th in 2019.

Wallace played well last week in Mexico and was more involved than his T33 finish would indicate. He struggled in round 4, shooting 74, but indicated that he was “playing for the win” which brought a lot more trouble into play. Wallace is one of the better wind players in the field and has shown winning upside in the past.

The 33-year-old is a grinder with winning upside.

In the past two editions of the tournament, there have been seven first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the seven, six have come from the morning wave. At first glance, there certainly looks to be an advantage to having an early tee time this week in Mexico but with such a small sample size I won’t put too much stock in that and take a balanced approach.

As of Tuesday, the wind doesn’t look as if it will play a factor at all during round one. It will be about hot and sunny for most of the day with wind gusts never exceeding 7 MPH.

This week, I used the Betsperts Rabbit Hole to see each players floor/ceiling. You can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Mexico Open First-Round-Leader Selections

Jhonnatan Vegas +6000 (DraftKings)

First-Round Tee Time: 12:15 p.m. Local Time

After a long injury layoff, it certainly seems as if Jhonnatan Vegas is “back”. In his most recent start at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, the Venezuelan gained 7.2 strokes ball striking, which was his best performance in the category since June of 2022.

Vegas loves playing on Paspalum, and while he struggles with the putter often, he’s been consistent putting on these slow and spongey surfaces. I expect the big man to have a great week in Mexico.

Harry Hall +9000 (BetMGM)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:14 a.m. Local Time

While you wouldn’t expect an Englishman in a flat cap to play his best golf in tropical paradises, that’s certainly been the case for the 24-year-old throughout his career thus far. The 6’4″ UNLV product with a soft touch around the greens has shined in places such as Puerto Rico and Puntacana as well as at Vidanta Vallarta last year.

Hall is a fantastic putter, which never will hurt you in the first-round leader market.

Adrien Dumont de Chassart 100-1 (FanDuel)

First-Round Tee Time: 1:54 p.m. Local Time

Those who have been following me this season know that I’m high on this 23-year-old bomber from Belgium. With off the tee prowess being a major point of emphasis at Vidanta Vallarta, it makes sense to give him another crack at the first-round lead once again this week.

In his most recent start at TPC Scottsdale, ADDC gained 4.0 strokes off the tee.

Fred Biondi 130-1 (DraftKings)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:47 a.m. Local Time

Fred Biondi recently won a National Championship as a Florida Gator and has loved playing on coastal courses throughout the early part of his career. In the fall, the Brazilian finished 13th at the Butterfield Bermuda and 23rd at the RSM Classic, with both events having fields either stronger or comparable to this one.

Biondi is a good iron player and putter and should be comfortable playing in Mexico.

Scott Piercy 150-1 (BetMGM)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:25 a.m. Local Time

Scott Piercy got in the field this week after Will Zalatoris withdrew following a strong performance at the Genesis Invitational. Piercy may be well past his prime, but this is the type of event where the 47-year-old has thrived over the years.

Piercy has been prone to fast starts and has finished in the top-5 after the first round 32 times in his career and has been within two of the lead in the first round 45 times. He’s also been great on Paspalum, boasting finishes of 6th at the 2018 OHL, 7th at the 2015 CIMB Classic and 4th at the 2016 OHL.

Sebastian Vazquez 300-1 (DraftKings)

First-Round Tee Time: 1:21 p.m. Local Time

Sebastian Vasquez is a name that many golf fans won’t be familiar with but has played some good golf in South America over the course of his career. At last year’s Mexico Open, Vazquez shot an opening round 67. At last year’s World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal at Diamante in Cabo San Lucas, Vazquez closed his tournament with a Sunday 64, which was just two shots off the round of the day.

The Mexican has been playing this season on the Gira de Golf Profesional Mexicana and doing so relatively well. He also finished 38th at El Cardonal in a pretty strong PGA Tour field. Vazquez could come out and fire a low one while feeling extremely at ease playing in his home country.

The Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 measuring 7,456 yards. Prior to its inaugural event, the course was extended by over 250 yards to make it PGA TOUR ready, and there were nine new tee boxes and 106 new bunkers added to stiffen the test for the best players in the world.

The course features three par 5s. Also, the par-4 seventh will be drivable for the longer hitters, but the golfers will have to risk taking on some water if they want to go for it.

The field this week will consist of 132 players. Some notable players in the field include Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Keith Mitchell, Emiliano Grillo, Taylor Pendrith and Thorbjorn Olesen. 

Past Winners at Vidanta Villarta

• 2023: Tony Finau (-24)
• 2022: Jon Rahm (-17)

5 Key Stats For Vidanta Villarta

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Vidanta Vallarta to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Driving Distance

At almost 7,500 yards, Vidanta Villarta is a long par 71. The rough shouldn’t be much of a factor this week, which gives the advantage to the long hitters in the field.

Average Driving Distance Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Alejandro Tosti (+311.2)
2. Sam Stevens (+310.4)
3. Cameron Champ (+308.1)
4. Patrick Rodgers (+305.1)
5. Vincent Norrman (+304.7)

2. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

With the course playing long and greens likely being receptive, elite ball strikers should have an advantage more so than a good short game and strong putting.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Jhonnatan Vegas (+1.10)
2. Erik Van Rooyen (+.95)
3. Taylor Pendrith (+.86)
4. Tony Finau (+.81)
5. Doug Ghim (+.74)

3. Course History

The first two editions of the event have produced plenty of leaderboard similarity. I’m looking to target players who like the golf course. 

Course History over past 8 rounds:

1. Tony Finau (+4.05)
2. Brandon Wu (+3.43)
3. Davis Riley (+2.94)
4. Cameron Champ (+2.55)
5. Patrick Rodgers (+2.41)

4. Strokes Gained: Total in Weak Fields with Easy Scoring Conditions

Last year, the course played extremely easy, and this is one of the weakest fields we will see this year on the PGA Tour. 

SG: TOT Total in Weak Fields with Easy Scoring Conditions Past 24 Rounds

1. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.84) 
2. Mackenzie Hughes (+1.69) 
3. S.H. Kim (+1.43)
4. Michael Kim (+1.43)
5. Tyler Duncan (+1.26)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Caribbean

I’m not exactly sure if this part of Mexico would be considered “Caribbean”, but this statistic brings in all rounds from Corales, the Puerto Rico Open, and the Bermuda Championship, which all have close leaderboard correlation to the Mexico Open. This also brings in courses that feature Paspalum greens.

Strokes Gained: Total in Caribbean over past 24 Rounds

1. Mackenzie Hughes (+3.14)
2. Tony Finau (+2.73)
3. Nicolai Hojgaard (+2.40)
4. James Hahn (+2.35)
5. Chad Ramey (+2.05)

The Mexico Open at Vidanta Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — Driving Distance (22%), SG: Ball Striking (28%), SG: Paspalum (16%), SG: Total in Weak Fields with Easy Scoring Conditions (16%) and Strokes Gained: Total in Caribbean (16%)

1. Taylor Pendrith
2. Erik Van Rooyen
3. Carl Yuan
4. Stephan Jaeger
5. Mark Hubbard
6. Matti Schmid
7. Cameron Champ
8. Vincent Whaley
9. Ryan Moore
10. Michael Kim

Mexico Open Picks

(All listed odds are at the time of writing)

Stephan Jaeger +2800 (BetMGM)

Despite not yet winning an event, Stephan Jaeger has been one of the most prolific birdie makers on the PGA Tour. In the field this season, he ranks 5th in the field in Birdie or Better percentage. 13th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 27th in Driving Distance.

Jaeger has had a tough time closing events while in contention, but his recent T3 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open in a strong field should have helped him build the necessary scar tissue it takes to win on the PGA Tour. He shot a final round 72 at Torrey Pines, which wasn’t a horrible result, but left him two shots behind eventual champion Mathieu Pavon.

In his two starts at the course, Jaeger has finished 15th and 18th. At this point in his career, he’s one of the most talented players in the field and should have what it takes to earn his first PGA Tour victory.

Keith Mitchell +3500 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell took last week off after a strong start to his 2024 campaign. He finished in a tie for 9th at the American Express in January and in a tie for 17th in his most recent start at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Over his past 24 rounds, Mitchell ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 21st in Driving Distance in the field.

When betting on events that feature Paspalum greens, I always look to target players who’ve had some success on the surface before, as it is quite unique. Mitchell hasn’t played in a great deal of those events over the past few seasons but does have a 2nd place finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2018, which is a strong signal that he likes the surface and can take advantage of a weak field.

On a golf course where great drivers of the golf ball have a significant advantage, I’ll happily take a shot on Mitchell who’s gained strokes off the tee in every one of his starts this season.

Taylor Pendrith +3500 (DraftKings)

Over the past few seasons, Taylor Pendrith has been fantastic in the weaker field events on coastal tracks. In the fall, he finished 8th at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship and was 10th a few months ago at the Sony Open in Hawaii. In his past 24 rounds, the Canadian ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Total in events that have easy scoring conditions and weak fields and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in the Caribbean.

Vidanta Vallarta is a course where bombers thrive and Pendrith is one of the longer hitters on the PGA Tour. He ranks 19th in the field in Driving Distance as well as 4th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in his past 24 rounds. He also ranks 2ndin the field in Birdie or Better percentage.

In addition to the obvious course fit, Pendrith is starting to play some good golf of late. He finished 9th at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago and has two top 10’s in his last three starts. With fellow Canadian Nick Taylor winning in Phoenix, the 32-year-old will be motivated to get in the winner’s circle in a year where the Presidents Cup will be played in Canada.

Cameron Champ +6500 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ has become one of my favorite players to bet in the outright market over the years due to his volatility. In most circumstances, volatility is a bad thing in the gambling world, but in outright betting, it’s a trait that I target. Champ finishes at the bottom of the leaderboard far more often than he finishes at the top, but he wins golf tournaments at a much higher clip than his odds indicate.

One of the courses on Tour that Champ fits the most is Vidanta Vallarta. The 28-year-old absolutely pummels the ball and the course is set up for players who can get it out there off the tee. He ranks 4th in Driving Distance in the field and also ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total for the first two editions of the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

By any metric, Champ is a poor putter on just about every surface, with one notable exception: Paspalum. He gains an average of .4 strokes per event on Paspalum as opposed to losing roughly .3 strokes on other surfaces.

Many will be concerned with Champ’s horrible start to 2024 where he’s missed the cut in all four of his starts. However, last season, Champ missed the cut in eight straight events prior to finishing 8th at the Mexico Open.

Close your eyes and bet it. Embrace the volatility.

Jhonnatan Vegas +8000 (BetRivers)

Jhonnatan Vegas is one of my favorite players to bet on and I’m ecstatic to find a spot on the schedule that should suit the Venezuelan remarkably.

After an injury hiatus, Vegas is back playing consistent golf and has shown some flashes of his ceiling in his most recent start. At the Waste management Phoenix Open, the two-time Olympian finished 22nd and gained 7.2 two strokes ball striking comprised of 3.8 strokes off the tee and 3.2 on approach.

Coastal Paspalum is a surface Vegas has thrived at over the years. The 39-year-old has finishes 2nd (2021 Puerto Rico Open) and 4th (2022 Corales Puntacana) on Paspalum and should be extremely comfortable with the putter this week.

In his past 24 rounds, Vegas ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field and 22nd in Driving Distance. The big man will be letting it rip off the tee in Mexico this week.

Harry Hall +130000 (BetRivers)

Harry Hall has absolutely feasted on Paspalum greens over the course of his PGA Tour career. The Englishman absolutely loves playing on the coast and a good deal of his best finishes have come on this surface, including the 2023 Puerto Rico Open (7th), the 2023 Mexico Open (10th) 2023 Corales (13th), and the 2022 Great Exuma (19th).

Hall finished 10th at the event last year and arrives after a solid tied for 41st finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. We’ve seen longshots win this season with a hot putter and Hall is one of the best putters in the field.

Adrien Dumont De Chassart +20000 (FanDuel)

Adrien Dumont De Chassart is a young up-and-coming player I’ve committed to betting early in the 2024 season. That approach will certainly come with ebbs and flows but in the end, I am betting on the talent of the 23-year-old.

The Belgian possesses arguably the most desired trait in order to contend this week in Mexico: At his best, he’s an elite talent off the tee. ADDC gained 4.0 strokes off the tee in his last start at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and should be able to let his drive loose at Vidanta Vallarta this week.

De Chassart is a proven winner on the Korn Ferry Tour and has the upside to take advantage of a weaker field this week in Mexico.

From learning how to properly hold a golf club and position your body in the right way to set up a fundamentally sound golf swing, to understanding the sequence of motions that get you to the top of the backswing, to executing a reverse sequence of motions through impact into the follow-through, well, there is just nothing else you do in life that is even remotely close.

I have always been fascinated by the technique aspect of the game, and thoroughly enjoy visiting with experienced teaching professionals, sharing ideas and concepts of how to help golfers in the most efficient manner. Recently, I made my 41st annual trip to the PGA Show in Orlando and had the opportunity to interact with a number of both old and new acquaintances, wherein we engaged in discussions about the best way to help golfers learn.

It is essentially inarguable that each position you pass through in the golf swing is a direct result of the position you passed through immediately prior, and each position will determine what happens next. In essence, the golf swing is a constant reminder that “you can’t get “there” from “here.”

An improper hold on the golf club completely prohibits the ability of the wrists to hinge and rotate correctly throughout the swing. While you can see some subtle differences in grips on the professional tours, those are limited to a preference for overlap vs. interlock style and slight variations in how strong or weak the hands are rotated. But all accomplished players hold the club in essentially the same way.

Likewise, a fundamentally unsound posture and ball position effectively prevent the body from moving in a way as to affect a sound takeaway, transition, and downswing/follow-through. Again, if you watch professional golfers, you’ll see only slight variations in posture and ball position, other than the changes based on the club they are about to hit. The slight differences you do see are mostly as an accommodation for varying heights – a 6’3” golfer simply cannot take the same posture at address as a 5’6” golfer, given that their club length for any given shot is very close to the same. [NOTE:  The length and lie specifications of tour player clubs do not vary nearly as much as you see coming out of the “custom-fitting” world.]

Finally, what your body core, arms and hands, and the golf club are doing through the impact zone is really not that much different in a 30-yard pitch shot than they are in a full swing 8-iron shot – the range of motion is just smaller and slower.

So, the point of today’s post is this: If you will learn to master the core fundamentals of the 30-yard basic pitch shot, your entire golf game will benefit.

There are a ton of good instructional videos to help you fully understand how the body and club work together on a routine pitch shot, so I strongly encourage you to watch, mimic, and learn. And for those of you who are “snowed in” for the coming weeks or months, the best way to learn this is in slow motion, without a ball in the way.

Almost all teaching professionals agree that a new and improved motion technique needs to be understood and learned before you put a ball into the equation. The key is lots of reps without worrying about ball impact. The ball is an intimidator to your focus on making the correct move — if a ball is there, your goal becomes to “hit the ball,” rather than to execute the proper sequence of motions you are trying to learn.

So, if you really want to get better through the bag, commit to learning how to execute a solid, repeating technique for 30-yard pitch shots.

In the past five editions of the tournament, there have been six first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the six, all six have come from the morning wave. There were co-leaders from the PM in 2018, but there does seem to be a real advantage for AM starters at Riviera.

As of Tuesday, the wind doesn’t look as if it will play a factor during round one. It will be about 58 degrees and sunny for most of the day.

Wind such a small field this year, most of the golfers will be going out at roughly the same time, so I wouldn’t be too concerned with looking for a tee time advantage.

This week, I used the Betsperts Rabbit Hole to see each players floor/ceiling.  You can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Genesis Invitational First-Round-Leader Selections

Cameron Young +4000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:44 a.m. Local Time

Cameron Young was one of the players I considered adding to my outright betting card but ran out of room. Last year, Young finished in a tie for 20th at the event. Two years ago, he got off to a blazing start, shooting 66 in round one and eventually finishing in a tie for 2nd place.

At TPC Scottsdale last week, Young gained 4.0 strokes off the tee, demonstrating once again that he’s an elite driver of the golf ball. That should serve him well this week at Riviera.

Hideki Matsuyama +6000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 10:42 a.m. Local Time

Matsuyama is one of the players who has an incredibly high ceiling when things are going well. He finished 13th at Torrey Pines this year and 22nd last week in Phoenix, so he’s shown some signs of playing well early in 2024.

‘Deki finished 9th and 5th in two consecutive starts in 2019 and 2020 and is clearly a fit for the golf course when he is healthy. He also loves soft conditions as he showed in his 2021 Masters victory.

Emiliano Grillo +6600 (BetMGM)

First-Round Tee Time: 7:56 a.m. Local Time

Emiliano Grillo has finished in the top-22 in all three of his 2024 starts on the west coast. Last week at TPC Scottsdale, the Argentine gained 6.0 strokes on approach, which was his most since the Mexico Open in April.

Grillo is an excellent long iron player who should be able to take advantage of the par-5’s and drivable par 4 at Riviera Country Club.

Tom Hoge +8000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:08 a.m. Local Time

In his past two starts, Tom Hoge has finished 6th at Pebble Beach and 17th at TPC Scottsdale. He gained 3.7 strokes on approach in both of those starts and is one of the more consistent iron players on the PGA Tour.

Hoge hasn’t been great at Riviera in the past, but last season he finished 14th, which shows he could have figured something out. The 34-year-old shot a 67 in round one. Another strong start this year will put him in the conversation for the first round lead with the way he’s currently hitting it.

Taylor Moore +9000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 11:18 a.m. Local Time

Taylor Moore struggled early in the year but may have found some form last week at TPC Scottsdale. The Arkansas product gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 4.0 strokes around the green. He was horiffic on the greens, which caused him to fall to 38th on the leaderboard, but the way he hit the ball was encouraging.

Moore finished 21st at Riviera in 2022, shooting in the 60’s for the first three rounds.

Adam Svensson +10000 (BetMGM)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:32 a.m. Local Time

Adam Svensson finished 9th at this event last year, and though it’s been a slow start to his 2024 campaign, a return to Riviera may be what Svensson needs to get things on the right track. Svensson has some of the longest odds on the entire board this week which is enough for me to take a shot given his 2023 performance at the course.

Riviera Country Club is a par-71 that measures 7,322 yards. The fairways and rough consist of Kikuyu grass, and the greens are Poa Annua.

The Genesis Invitational field will consist of 70 players with the top-50 and ties making it to the weekend. 

65 of 67 eligible players for The Genesis Invitational via one of these categories are committed:
– 2022-23 FedExCup top 50
– Aon Next 10 (51-60 in 2022-23 FedExCup Fall)
– Race to Dubai (top player not otherwise exempt)
– 2024 winners
– Top 30 OWGR
– Sponsor exemptions (*) pic.twitter.com/ijWX8vO4mg

— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) February 9, 2024

Tiger Woods will also make his 2024 debut at Riviera this week. 

Past Winners at The Genesis Invitational

• 2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
• 2022: Joaquin Niemann (-19)
• 2021: Max Homa (-12)
• 2020: Adam Scott (-11)
• 2019: J.B. Holmes (-14)
• 2018: Bubba Watson (-12)
• 2017: Dustin Johnson (-17)
• 2016: Bubba Watson (-15)
• 2015: James Hahn (-6)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

This week, I find ball striking to be especially important. Riviera requires golfers to play well in all facets of their game.

Ball striking includes both off the tee and approach, as one or the other will not be enough this week. Golfers will need to excel with both the driver and irons this week if they want to contend.

Last year Jon Rahm gained 12.5 strokes ball striking. In 2022, Joaquin Niemann, gained 9.1 strokes ball striking.

Total Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in Past 24 Rounds (Average per round)

1. Adam Scott (+2.08)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.97)
3. Xander Schauffele (+1.54)
4. Justin Thomas (+1.30)
5. Chris Kirk (+1.18)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

While off the tee is included in the ball striking stat, I am double-dipping here by incorporating SG: Off the Tee. Driving distance is very important, as the course is long, and there are many fairway bunkers that require length to carry.

Driving accuracy is also important because the Kikuya rough can be quite penal.

SG: OTT Round in Past 24 Rounds (Average per round)

1. Kevin Yu (+0.98) 
2. Scottie Scheffler (+0.79) 
3. Rory McIlroy (+0.78)
4. Byeong Hun An (+0.67) 
5. Cameron Young (+0.62)

Strokes Gained: Putting (West Coast)

Riviera’s fast and firm greens are notoriously difficult. Putts from 10 feet and in are far from a guarantee, and this is an area where we will see many golfers struggle this week.

SG: Putting (West Coast) Past 24 Rounds (Average Per Round)

1. Nick Taylor (+24.2)
2. Brendon Todd (+23.1)
3. Sahith Theegala (+18.7)
4. Sam Burns (+18.5)
5. Taylor Montgomery (+17.7)

3-Putt Avoidance (West Coast)

Poa can get really bumpy late in the day, making tough par saves late in the tournament even more difficult. Average three-putts per round are much higher at Riviera than the TOUR average. 

3-Putt Avoidance: Gained in Past 24 Rounds (Average Per Round)

1. Sam Burns (0.8)
2. Kurt Kitayama (+0.8)
3. Keegan Bradley (+0.8)
4. Nick Taylor (+1.0)
5. Dabis Riley (+1.1)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

This event will be far from a birdie-fest. As mentioned, Riviera is a true all-around test.

With fairways relatively difficult to hit, playing out of the rough will create a lot of missed greens. Golfers will need to make some tricky up and downs to get away with par at Riviera.

SG: ARG: past 24 rounds (Average per round)

1. Justin Thomas (+.78)
2. Russell Henley (+.76) 
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+62)
4. J.J. Spaun (+.57)
5. Beau Hossler (+.56)

Course History (SG: Total) (Average per round)

1. Cameron Young
2. Adam Svensson
3. Mac Homa
4. Viktor Hovland
5. Patrick Cantlay
6. Collin Morikawa
7. Adam Scott
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Will Zalatoris
10. Rory McIlroy

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: BS (28%), SG: OTT (24%), SG: Putting West Coast (17%), SG: ARG (17%), Course History (7%) and 3-Putt Avoidance West Coast (7%).

1. Sahith Theegala (+3500)
2. Max Homa (+1600)
3. Justin Thomas (+2000)
4. Xander Schauffele (+1400)
5. Collin Morikawa (+1600)
6. Scottie Scheffler (+750)
7. Beau Hossler (+1800)
8. Adam Scott (+4500)
9. Viktor Hovland (+1200)
10. Luke List (+15000)

2024 Genesis Invitational Picks

Justin Thomas +2500 (Bet365)

Justin Thomas was my headline bet last week, and I’ll be going back to him once again at Riviera. Although it wasn’t a spectacular performance, JT played well enough, finishing in a tie for 11th.

Statistically, Thomas didn’t play extremely well, however, he was solid in all facets of his game, which is a key at Riviera. He gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and even putting. After making a putter switch after the first round, the two-time PGA Champion was positive on the greens for the rest of the week.

Thomas has had a great deal of success at Riviera, and history has shown that players who have a strong track record at the course are more likely to have a repeat performance. In his past six starts at the Genesis Invitational, Thomas has three top-10 finishes, including a second-place finish in 2019. In that event, JT lost to J.B. Holmes on a windy Sunday when he played 36 holes. He finished 20th last season. 

Although he’s yet to get in the winner’s circle since the 2022 PGA Championship, JT has finished 3rd, 6th and 12th in his three 2024 starts. I believe the win is coming, and one of his best chances of the year will be this week.

Tony Finau +3000 (BetRivers)

Despite not finishing extremely well, Tony Finau once again hit the ball great at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He gained 5.8 strokes ball striking, which should provide him much more of an advantage at a course like Riviera as opposed to the shorter track in Pebble Beach. Finau was also excellent at Torrey Pines, finishing 6th and gaining 7.0 strokes on approach, which was good for 2nd in the field.

Finau has a strong track record at Riviera. In 2021, he lost in a playoff to Max Homa and in 2019, he finished runner-up to Bubba Watson. He ranks 14th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total per round at Riviera. The 34-year-old has finished in the top-20 of the event in three of his last five tries.

It’s been a slow start for the bigger names at the top of the leaderboard this season, but I believe a player like Finau can get it done this week in a signature event.

Sahith Theegala +3500 (DraftKings)

This season, Sahith Theegala is playing like one of the best and most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour. In his past two starts, he’s finished 20th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am and 5th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Last week at TPC Scottsdale, Theegala gained 5.6 strokes on approach and 2.6 strokes off the tee.

In addition to the strong recent ball striking, the former Haskins award winner is an excellent putter on West Coast POA, ranking 3rd in the field in the category only behind some fantastic putters.

Theegala has proven that he’s extremely comfortable playing on the West Coast where he grew up and went to college at Pepperdine. He won the Fortinet Championship in the fall and can be another player, similar to Max Homa, who wins at Silverado and Riviera.

Adam Scott +4500 (FanDuel) 

This number is a little shorter than I was hoping for, but Scott’s combination of recent form and course history at Riviera is too difficult to ignore this week.

Last week at TPC Scottsdale, the Australian gained 6.5 strokes on approach, which was his best performance in the category since June of 2022. Scott has started his 2024 season finishing 20th and 8th in his two starts and a recent iron switch seems to be working out beautifuly for the veteran. He switched from Miura irons to the Srixon ZX Mk II (3, 4), Srixon ZX 7 Mk II (5-9), which are more of a cavity backed iron. He also switched to a TaylorMade driver and has gained 1.8 and 1.7 strokes off the tee in his two starts this season.

Scott’s history at Riviera is remarkable. In his last eight trips to the course, he’s finished in the top eleven five times, including a win (2020) and a runner-up (2016). In the field, he ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Riviera.

At his best, Scott can compete with all of the top players on Tour despite being in the back nine of his incredible career.

Adam Scott currently co-leading at Riviera #PGATour pic.twitter.com/WVr210v7AN

— PGA of Australia (@PGAofAustralia) February 16, 2019

Hideki Matsuyama +8000 (BetRivers) 

This is simply a “bet the number” play for me this week. Hideki Matsuyama has been a tough man to predict since his 2021 Masters victory and he’s been relatively inconsistent to kick off his 2024 campaign. In between some mixed results, the Japanese star has finishes of 13th at Torrey Pines and 22nd last week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

In the past, Matsuyama has played great at Riviera, however the results haven’t been as strong in the past three seasons. He has finishes of 4th (2015), 9th (2019) and 5th (2020), so he clearly has an eye for the layout.

Matsuyama is great with his long irons and is always one of the best players around the green, which are two of the most important factors at Riv. If Matsuyama can keep his driver in play, I think he will be around over the weekend.

Three holes played. Two chip-inskis. Class from Hideki. pic.twitter.com/87dN3v3EFC

— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) February 9, 2024

Other Considerations

I decided to add this blurb this week of some players that I strongly considered but couldn’t fit on my card. If you need a break from some of my stalwarts such as JT, Hideki or Scott, a bet on one of these players looks great.

Ludvig Aberg +2200: Riviera should be a perfect course fit.

Sam Burns +2500: Playing extremely well at the moment and figures to be in the mix.

Cameron Young +4000: Played great here last year and seems to be finding some form. Driver can be a weapon at Riv.

Will Zalatoris :+5500: Still working his way back from injury, which is my concern, but Riviera is a golf course that will suit Zalatoris for the next decade plus.

I have recently had the good fortune of playing the iconic Blackstone Golf Club at Mission Hills Resort in China, which is consistently ranked as one of the best courses in Asia. Blackstone is particularly famous for hosting the Tiger Woods vs. Rory McIlroy exhibition ‘The Match at Mission Hills’ in 2013. The event brought international attention to the sprawling luxury resort and boosted the level of interest in the game in the region.

Before delving into my amazing experience at Blackstone Golf Club, here is a little bit of information about the best golf resort you may never heard of.

Tiger and Rory faced off at the very course I was at in 2013. Don’t worry, I won’t spoil it by telling you who won.

The Best Golf Resort in The World?

Mission Hills Golf and Resort is located in the southern part of China on Hainan Island, which is about the size of Maine. Often referred to as the Hawaii of China, its tropical location gives the island year-round sunshine with temperatures between 75~90°F in the winter and 60~75°F in the summer. Along with dozens of other notable golf resorts and courses on the Island, the resort is a popular destination for golfers from Asia, Europe, and as far away as Australia and New Zealand.

Mission Hills first opened its doors in early 2010 with the aim of becoming the best resort in the world. I’m not sure if they achieved their goal, but before you smirk at their ambitiousness, Mission Hills is currently listed in the Guinness Book of Records as the World’s largest golf resort with a total of 10 world-class golf courses. That is an astounding 180 championship-class golf holes in one resort! The courses are designed by the talented Schmidt-Curley Design team who are behind some of the best courses in Asia and around the world.

The Blackstone Golf Club is considered the “crown jewel” course at Mission Hills Resort and gets its name from the plethora of black lava rock that is found all over the course as part of its beautiful charm. But don’t be fooled by its rugged beauty, as the monster-long Blackstone has hosted several World Cup of Golf championships (guess who teamed up for the US to win in 2011?) and the annual World Ladies Championships. It also hosts the annual World Celebrity Pro-Am attended by an amazing A-list of screen stars, pro golfers, and elite athletes from around the world.

So yeah, the course is quite good.

On top of that, the resort holds another world’s best distinction, with a total of 168 different hot springs and pools within the resort. Unfortunately, I was too immersed in playing golf to take advantage of a good hot soak, but it will be on the top of my list to do with my whole family next time.

Now, let’s take a close look at what the Blackstone course was all about, and keep in mind that the course descriptions and opinions are all my own from experience and perspective.

The early morning view outside the hotel room overlooking the course and resort is breathtaking

Greens

The green condition was quite superb, albeit a bit slow from Western standards. According to the caddie, the green speed was measured at about 2.9 meters, which translates to about 9.5 on the stimp meter. A speed of 7 is considered to be slow, and the average PGA Tour event is said to be about 12, so for us average folk the greens were rolling well.

The green size is quite large with nearly 5700 square feet average in size with less-than-subtle undulations and big rolling plateaus. The pins were placed slightly towards the front left of the green this day, and the approach shots were challenging for us amateurs to stuff close. The ball rolled straight and true to where it was aimed, and I only had myself to blame for missed short putts.

I don’t know if its an Asian thing, but we seem to have many courses with big greens and sometimes ridiculously big undulations and plateaus on them. We even have bunkers in the middle of the green, sometimes!

Fairways

Unlike many of the Korean courses I’m used to, the fairways are lush and readily yielded nice dollar-sized divots from well-struck iron shots into the greens. The course itself is huge and it was reflected in the long wide fairways stretching from tee to green.

Most of the fairways seemed to be free of readily noticeable trouble areas, meaning that what you see was what you got. However, upon close inspection, there were many subtle undulations which caused the stance to be slightly uneven at address. It wasn’t like St. Andrews level of fairway undulations, but it was there.

Also, the big prominent fairways bunkers often came into play and caused me to consciously aim away from them, which left longer approach shots into the green. We were somehow feeling confident this day and were playing from the blue tees. And for a guy who averages 240-yard drives on my best days, those small detours inevitably added 1-2 clubs more to the next shot.

Fairways were rolling nicely but were still a bit damp due to the sporadic short rain bursts.

Most fairways were quite wide, though it didn’t keep our balls from escaping into the jungle.

Rough

Truth to tell, the rough wasn’t all that intimidating, as it was only modestly long, and the wide fairways pushed the rough back considerably. As it wasn’t tournament season and the course was set up to mostly cater to vacationers, it made sense not to make the rough too punishing.

Beyond the rough was mostly deep jungle-like vegetation, which made it next to impossible to hit the ball out of, let alone find it in the first place.  Thanks to our amateur ball-striking abilities, however, we easily overpowered the hapless wide fairways to appease the jungle gods with our many golf balls.

The rough is almost non-existent from tee to green, except for a little bit around the bunkers and extreme sides of the fairways. The course is very long, so I guess they want golfers to relax and not get high blood pressure?

Fairway and 1st-cut rough

Bunkers

Blackstone had no shortage of fairway and greenside bunkers to daunt the average golfer. The many fairway bunkers were often quite large, and despite the mostly wide fairways, some were placed just at the right (?) places to catch drives that strayed left or right off the tee. Standing on the tees, the presence of so many bunkers was aesthetically pleasing yet intimidating at the same time.

The bunkers were meticulously raked and pristine, with the sand looking visually heavy but being very soft. Maintaining the bunkers to this level of readiness cannot be easy, as there are 10 courses at this resort! Even if there were just two bunkers per hole, that’s still 360 sand traps to rake and prep each day! Add to this the fairways and greens, not to mention the decorative foliage, the level of course maintenance at this level is quite mind-boggling.

I also don’t recall seeing any flat bunkers, as most seemed to have a healthy amount of incline at the front to make it harder to move the ball forward a long way. The greenside bunkers were also deeper and usually presented an upslope lie, and the shots had to have some climb to escape from them. If you have trouble hitting the ball straight, be sure to sharpen your bunker play when you visit Blackstone.

With the frightening number of bunkers at Blackstone, I only managed to get into two of them. I even managed to get up and down on one of them.

Bunkers and blackstones aplenty.

Despite being only the second time in a bunker, this one on the 18th cost me a devastating double bogey.

Tee To Green

Blackstone’s monstrous 7808 yards should satisfy most golfers’ urge to go all out on their shots. From the blues, it was still a challenging 6722 yards, and I don’t mind saying it felt longer than that all day.

Most of the pins can be seen from the tee box, and despite some slightly rolling fairways, Blackstone is a mostly-level parkland course without any significant drop or rise in elevation. Sprawling over a huge area of land, the holes do not double back in parallel but stretch forward through dense foliage, making for a scenic ride in the golf cart. One thing I also appreciated was the leisurely pace of play. The group ahead and behind were not visible for nearly the entire round, despite our less-than-quick pace of play.

From tee to green in its entirety, the course was in amazing shape and condition. The unexpected tropical golf experience was nothing short of amazing, and if I had to make a comparison to some of the other memorable tracks I’ve visited, the Hoakalei Country Club and Turtle Bay Resort (Palmer design) in Hawaii come to mind, along with Korea’s own Haesley Nine Bridge Club, which consistently ranks as one of the best courses in Asia.

The pictures below don’t do justice to the course, but I’m sure you’ll get the idea.

The sky was particularly blue and the course beautiful; so much so that my foursome didn’t seem to mind carding doubles and triples over and over again. What a joy.

For us short-hitters, we had to aim for the middle of the many bunkers and hope for the best.

If I had a dollar for every time one of us wished we owned a penthouse in one of the many condos dotting the resort…

Many holes are carved right through a lush jungle with a huge modern condo looming in the background.

Cluster bunkers are to be avoided at all costs.

The view from the 1st hole tee at Blackstone.

Looking like a pro in front of the picture board at the 18th tee… then promptly topping a drive 100 yards out. At least I looked good on camera.

Caddies & Carts

Unlike most courses in the West, golf clubs in Asia require each golfer to play with a mandatory caddie and golf cart. Also, if you each decide to have an additional caddie to help hold the umbrella, it can make for a sizeable group of 12 (greens keepers would be tossing in their beds in the west)! So how do the caddies move if you’re driving a power cart, you ask? They simply hop onboard the back of the buggy.

On this day, we ‘only’ had four caddies to attend our play, and they were fantastic. Despite my initial concerns, the language barrier was not an issue as they were conversant in all the needed terminology in English and Korean. This was a pleasant surprise, as I was able to ask more about the course to help my play, and there was always Google Translate.

The caddie fee was 500 yuan each, which is about $70 US. They were highly professional and quick on their feet, and I could tell that the resort had gone to good lengths in training the caddies (said to be 2000 in number!) to make the golfing experience enjoyable for their international guests.

Each foursome of caddies had a ‘master caddie’ that led the other three and acted to translate longer dialogues as needed. They had a good knowledge of the course and general breaks on greens. But don’t expect them to be like the actual caddies like for the pros. They are mostly for offering simple advice on reading greens, cleaning and handing over your clubs, and helping you to find your balls.

Not gonna lie… having a personal caddie wait on your every shot was nerve-wracking at first.

Resort & Facilities

Mission Hills Haikou has a 500-room hotel with several fine-dining restaurants and high-end boutiques within the main wing and the adjoining annex. They also have a shopping mall within the hotel featuring global brands like Taylormade, Adidas, and Skechers, along with a slew of high-end golf brands to luxury watches and whiskies.

The view from my room on the 9th floor was something to write home about, along with the impeccable services. Truth to tell, I had previously heard several horror stories of less-than-friendly services which led me to refrain from visiting China prior. That must’ve been a different country, as Mission Hills pulled out all the stops to impress and awe its visitors, and it certainly worked on me. We were treated like kings on and off the course, and the hotel personnel was on hand to assist us everywhere we went.

The entire resort complex was like a huge labyrinth of spas, pools, shops, and golf courses. They nearly had everything, including an incredible hotel buffet and several ethnic cuisines, a nightclub and karaoke, and an entire museum-like wing dedicated to the many celebrities and pro golfers that have played here. I could have stayed for hours simply looking at their vast collection of golf memorabilia. My golf buddy called it a golf heaven on earth, and I couldn’t agree more.

Again, the pics won’t be able to fully capture the experience, but they’ll give you an idea of the enormous size and quality of the place.

Spic and span to receive guests after a long hiatus during COVID-19, I bet.

I stayed in a nice-sized suite on the 9th floor with a good view overlooking the resort and course.

The tub is actually quite big and probably could fit three of me in it comfy.

The hotel service had complimentary ramen and beers, along with the local fruit.

Early morning view out the window showed the course shrouded in ground fog.

I wasn’t planning to do any swimming when I initially packed for the trip. Next time.

The pool behind the main hotel had sandy beaches!

A huge maze of trails and covered walkways branching off to a vast number of pools, hot springs, and saunas.

The morning buffet was one of the best I had in a while, with a full line up of both Asian and Western foods.

A sign at the entrance of the buffet showed the daily condition of the 10 golf courses.

Hotel Shops & Amenities

The shops inside the lobby were all high-end as well as ones I didn’t think to expect like the NBA-themed shop, Hennessy whiskey and Tabasco hot sauce shops!

Then there were dozens more shops in a whole other building next to the hotel, lined with the palm prints of celebrities and stars. The sheer size and scale of Mission Hills was outrageous.

Trip Overview

Hainan is a tropical Island in the South China Sea and can get quite hot and humid during the summer monsoon season. By plane, it took 4.5 hours from Korea to Hainan.

Interestingly, Hainan Island is designated as a tourist zone by the Chinese government and does not require a visa prior to arrival. It is issued when you arrive at the airport and go through customs.

During the end of 2023 when the trip took place, COVID-19 restrictions were largely over and there were the simplest of checks (1-2 minutes) using a machine to detect any virus before entering and exiting the airport.

The resort itself was only about a 15-minute bus ride from the airport. For those who travel often to Asia, they’ll know that courses and resorts can be up to two hours from the airport.

A brief warm-up on the range and armed with complimentary golf balls, we were off to the first tee.

True to its name, the course had stone walls and fences made from the igneous black lava rock.

Except for the absence of the sound of waves, the ambiance reminded me of courses in Hawaii.

Loved the open skies and the awesome panoramic views!

Be sure to pack some strong sunscreen and sports drinks or salt candy. The tropical climate can get quite hot and humid at midday.

Blackstone plays to par 73 and 6722 yards from the blue. I was happy with the score especially when the caddies told me it was the best they’ve seen in a while, LOL!!!

It looked like they were planning to build even more courses and condos. These folks sure like to think big.

Wall-to-wall memorabilia on display from past majors, champions, and legends of the game. So this is where all those signed Masters flags were!

The three-day stay went by all too fast… (T^T)

As part of the package, we were also shown to the largest duty-free shop in Asia. These guys have a thing for being the biggest, grandest, and most opulent; and it was awesome.

It seemed as if every brand of luxury was represented here, and it would’ve taken hours to see it all. If your partner is into this kind of stuff, leave them at home in case they get in the way of your golf.

A final meal at a popular restaurant before heading to the airport. Can you guess the menu? Yup, Chinese, but like nothing you see in the West. It was all delicious to boot.

Met a new friend while waiting for the limousine bus to take us the rest of the way. Even these guys were BIG.

After a rather simple and quick immigration and boarding process, we were safely on our way home to Korea. I have to give credit to the authorities for making the immigration/airport customs process simple and quick. Sometimes everything can be great, only to be ruined by a last-minute glitch or hold-up at the airport, and there were none.

A short nap and back in Seoul. I can’t wait to go back again soon with the whole family to jump in the hot springs. Now if I can only find a way to go visit Pebble Beach and St. Andrews similarly, I’m set. Wish me luck.

• Related: Vincenzi’s 2024 WM Phoenix Open betting preview: Star names to shine in the desert

In the past five editions of the tournament, there have been nine first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the nine, five have come from the morning wave, and four have come from the afternoon wave. It appears there is no real advantage to either starting time historically but that can always be influenced by weather.

As of Tuesday, the wind looks as if it may be a factor during round one. The early starters should see winds 8 MPH with gusts up to 18 MPH. The afternoon starters will have the slightly more difficult draw. Winds will be around 16 MPH with gusts up to 22 MPH. For this reason, I’d slightly favor AM starters but wouldn’t rule out the PM wave completely.

Waste Management Phoenix Open First-Round-Leader Selections

Keith Mitchell +9000 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 12:22 p.m. Local Time

TPC Scottsdale is the type of course where Keith Mitchell’s skill set could propel him up the leaderboard. He will be able to let it fly off the tee and is always capable of getting a hot putter. Mitchell has had some success in the event, finishing 10th in 2022 while shooting four rounds in the 60’s. He also finished 16th in 2020.

K.H. Lee +10000 (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM)

First-Round Tee Time: 12:55 p.m. Local Time

K.H. Lee famously has played great golf at TPC courses, and TPC Scottsdale is no different. The South Korean came agonizingly close to victory at the event back in 2021, finishing one shot behind Brooks Koepka.

Lee missed the cut at The Farmers but had back-to-back top-30 finishes in his previous two starts at some easier courses in Waialae CC and PGA West. K.H. shot three rounds of 66 at the course when he contended so he’s no stranger to a low round at TPC Scottsdale.

Sam Ryder +12500 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 12:00 p.m. Local Time

Sam Ryder has been a boom-or-bust player, which is exactly what we’re looking for in a first-round leader bet. The 34-year-old recently had a hot stretch with the irons and is always a go-low candidate on easier courses.

Last year, Ryder finished 20th at the event, and he finished 23rd in 2022, but had a 2nd round 64, which would likely be good enough for FRL if he were able to repeat.

Victor Perez +15000 (BetMGM)

First-Round Tee Time: 9:10 a.m. Local Time

Victor Perez hasn’t played much in 2024, so this is more of a gut play than anything else. He missed the cut in his only start at the Farmers Insurance Open but was able to still gain strokes with his irons despite the disappointing finish.

Perez was playing great in the fall and finished 8th at the DPWT Championship. A week on the PGA Tour at Torrey Pines should have been enough to get his feet wet and feel comfortable this week in Phoenix on a course where his strong iron play could help him shoot a low round.

Adrien Dumont De Chessart+20000 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 1:50 p.m. Local Time

This is yet another gut play with Dumont De Chessart. The 23-year-old from Belgium has enormous upside and one of the more talented young players in the world but has struggled to start his PGA Tour career.

De Chessart opened his Farmers Insurance Open with a first-round 68, which was a solid score on a tough track. The laid-back atmosphere of TPC Scottsdale and the scoreable layout could be enough for the rookie to find the form that made him a threat to win multiple Korn Ferry Tour events at the end of last season.

The Waste Management Phoenix Open is no longer a “signature event”, as it was last year, but it has still attracted a very solid group of players. The field will feature plenty of stars including Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Sahith Theegala and Adam Scott. 

TPC Scottsdale is a par-71 that measures 7,261 yards and features Bermudagrass greens (although they are much more of a blend rather than pure Bermudagrass).

Past Winners at the Waste Management Phoenix Open

• 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-22)
• 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
• 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
• 2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
• 2018: Gary Woodland (-18)
• 2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
• 2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14)
• 2015: Brooks Koepka (-15)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for TPC Scottsdale to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Going forward, I’ll be using the brand-new Bet The Number data engine to develop my custom model. All statistics listed come directly from the PGA Tour. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATT for $5 off the Monthly and $50 off the Annual Subscription. 

Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach will once again be very important this week.

Last year, Scottie Scheffler gained 9.1 strokes on approach on his way to victory. In 2021, Brooks Koepka was second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, trailing only Jordan Spieth, who finished fourth. In 2020, Webb Simpson ranked first in the field in the category en route to a playoff victory over Tony Finau.

The greens are relatively flat, and pins should be accessible.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in Past 24 Rounds (per round):

1. Xander Schauffele (+1.1)
2. Mark Hubbard (+.91)
3. Taylor Montgomery (+.90)
4. Scottie Scheffler (+.89)
5. Beau Hossler (+.86)

SG: Off the Tee

TPC Scottsdale is not an overly long golf course. Distance off the tee is not absolutely essential, but it is a definite asset. A good combination of distance and accuracy should be the recipe this week, with distance still being a bit more important.

SG: OTT in Past 24 Rounds (per round):

1. Kevin Yu (+1.0)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+.95) 
3. Keith Mitchell (+.91)
4. Byeong Hun An (+.86)
5. Jhonnatan Vegas (+.81)

Strokes Gained: Putting

Greens tend to get really firm and fast in the Arizona desert. Statistically, players will have to putt well to contend. 

Strokes Gained: Putting in last 24 rounds:

1. Min Woo Lee (+1.3)
2. Sam Ryder (+1.3)
3. Chad Ramey (+1.2)
4. Taylor Montgomery (+1.1)
5. Matt Kuchar (+1.0)

Greens in Regulation Percentage

Statistics from previous years at TPC Scottsdale say Greens in Regulation: Gained at the course is much more indicative of the winner at this tournament than TOUR average.

With many bunkers and firm dry areas around the greens, missing the putting surface can be consequential.

Total Greens in Regulation Gained: Gained in Past 24 Rounds

1. Scottie Scheffler (+82.8%) 
2. Andrew Putnam (+82.6%) 
3. Corey Conners (+80.7%)
4. Lucas Glover (+80.3%)
5. Erik Van Rooyen (+80.2%)

Bogey Avoidance

With the winner in the high teens under par on average, making a lot of bogeys will make it incredibly difficult to contend. 

Bogey Avoidance: Past 24 Rounds

1. Ryan Moore (+7.1)
2. Andrew Putnam (+7.9)
3. Scottie Scheffler (+8.3)
4. Alex Noren (+8.3)
5. Viktor Hovland (+8.4)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (28%), SG: OTT (25%), SG: Putting (17%), GIR %(18%) and Bogey Avoidance (12%).

1. Scottie Scheffler (+550)
2. Xander Schauffele (+1100)
3. Corey Conners (+7000)
4. Sam Ryder (+18000)
5. Adam Svensson (+13000)
6. Erik Van Rooyen (+11000)
7. Viktor Hovland (+1100)
8. Chesson Hadley (+10000)
9. Taylor Montgomery (+8000)
10. Max Homa (+1600)

2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas has been on fire to kick off his 2024 season. He finished 3rd at the American Express and put another great week together at Pebble Beach, finishing in a tie for 6th. Now he will be heading to a course that he absolutely loves in search of his first victory since the 2022 PGA Championship.

Thomas has played some great golf at TPC Scottsdale. He finished 4th at the course last year and 8th in 2022, gaining 7.1 strokes on approach, which was second in the field behind only Bubba Watson. Additionally, Thomas has third place finishes in both 2019 and 2020 as well as a 13th place finish in 2021.  

The Waste Management Phoenix Open is an event I’ve always thought Justin Thomas was destined to win. As we’ve seen at both the Ryder Cup and the President’s Cup, “JT” is a player who thrives off of energy from the crowd, and he’ll certainly get his fair share of that this week in Scottsdale.

Jordan Spieth +2200 (DraftKings)

Spieth hit the ball pretty well at Pebble Beach but just couldn’t get many putts to fall. The former Masters champion has played well at TPC Scottsdale throughout his career, and this should be another event where he has a chance to contend, especially with the field a bit weaker this week.

Last year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Spieth finished in 6th place and gained 11.5 strokes from tee to green including an incredible 8.4 of those strokes on approach, which was second only to the winner Scottie Scheffler. He also has past finishes of 4th in 2021 and 9th in 2017.

Spieth has had a strong start to his season, finishing 3rd at The Sentry prior to a mediocre week at Pebble Beach. Spieth in contention would be a great scene on Super Bowl Sunday.

The tournament will be much different this season than what fans are used to, with plenty of welcome changes to the event. The 2024 edition of the tournament will be a “Signature Event” which means Pebble Beach will finally get the star-studded field it deserves and a prize pool of $20 million, with $3.6 million going to the winner as well as 700 FedExCup points. 

This should be one of the most exciting events of the season, as we will finally get to see many of the best players in the world play at one of the world’s most iconic golf courses over the weekend.

As Johnny Miller once said, “They say it’s the greatest meeting of land and sea in the world. This course was heaven designed”.

The event has previously utilized three courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club, but with the smaller field this year, we will now only see Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill Golf Course. Monterey Peninsula was the easiest of the three courses, so it’s removal should make scoring more difficult overall. It will be a no-cut event, with each golfer playing one round at Spyglass Hill and three at Pebble Beach. The Pro-Am portion of the event will only take place Thursday and Friday. 

The field this week is made up of 70 players including the top 50 from last year’s FedExCup standings, the top 10 available and not otherwise exempt from current FedExCup standings (Aon Next 10), and the top five available and not otherwise exempt FedExCup points earners from the swings leading up to each Signature Event (Aon Swing 5). Adam Scott, Webb Simpson, Maverick McNealy and Peter Malnati have also received sponsor’s exemptions. 

Pebble Beach Golf Links is a par-72 measuring 6,828 yards and featuring Poa Annua greens. Spyglass Hill is a par-72 measuring 7,035 yards, and Monterey Peninsula is a par-71 measuring 6,958 yards.

Past Winners at The Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am

• 2023: Justin Rose (-18)
• 2022: Tom Hoge (-19)
• 2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
• 2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
• 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
• 2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
• 2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
• 2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17)
• 2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22)

Going forward, I’ll be using the brand-new Bet The Number data engine to develop my custom model. All statistics listed come directly from the PGA Tour. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATT for $5 off the Monthly and $50 off the Annual Subscription. 

Strokes Gained: Approach

Unsurprisingly, approach grades out as the most important statistic for Pebble Beach.

On a shorter course, approaches to the green are understandably more indicative of success than smashing it off of the tee. With very small greens, Pebble Beach is undoubtedly a second-shot golf course.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in Past 24 Rounds (per round):

1. Mark Hubbard (+.91)
2. Taylor Montgomery (+.90)
3. Xander Schauffele (+.84)
4. Chris Kirk (+.84)
5. Scottie Scheffler (+.77)

SG: Around the Green

With extremely small greens, Pebble Beach will be suited for players who are good around the green after they inevitably have to scramble for par. 

SG: ARG in Past 24 Rounds (per round):

1. J.J. Spaun (+.61)
2. Russell Henley (+.57)
3. Sahith Theegala (+.51)
4. Beau Hossler (+.45)
5. Jordan Spieth (+.39)

Strokes Gained: Putting (West Coast POA)

With the course being so short, one of its main defenses is its fast Poa Annua greens. Strokes Gained: Putting has historically been extremely important here, as evidenced by former winners (Spieth, Mickelson, Snedeker).

SG: Putting (West Coast POA) Last 24 Rounds (per round):

1. Denny McCarthy (+2.2)
2. Max Homa (+1.9)
3. Peter Malnati (+1.4)
4. S.H. Kim (+1.3)
5. Harris English (+1.1)

Course History

Pebble Beach has historically been a specialist’s course.  Every winner of this event since 2006 has a top-21 finish in a previous appearance. 

Total Strokes Gained (Pebble Beach): Gained per Round in Past 24 Rounds

1. Maverick McNealy (+2.6)
2. Taylor Moore (+2.1)
3. Jordan Spieth (+1.7)
4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.5)
5. Jason Day (+1.4)

Approach 125-150

Pebble Beach is extremely short, and players will be faced with plenty of wedge shots into the course’s tiny greens. 

Approach 125-150 past 24 rounds (per round):

1. Taylor Montgomery (14.9)
2. Mark Hubbard (15.8)
3. Beau Hossler (16.1)
4. Max Homa (16.6)
5. Cameron Young (16.7)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (28%), Approach 125-150 (18%), SG: Putting West Coast Poa (18%), Course History (18%) and ARG (18%).

1. Max Homa (+2000)
2. Taylor Montgomery (+10000)
3. J.T. Poston (+6600)
4. Beau Hossler (+8000)
5. Xander Schauffele (+1800)
6. Scottie Scheffler (+850)
7. Brendon Todd (+8000)
8. Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
9. Collin Morikawa (+2200)
10. Alex Noren (+7500)

2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Cantlay hasn’t been playing his best golf to begin the 2024 season, which is why we are getting a palatable number on the 31-year-old. Cantlay absolutely loves Pebble Beach and hasn’t finished worse than 21st in his last four trips to the course. He finished in a tie for 3rd in 2021 and a tie for 2nd in 2022. In 2021, Cantlay tied a course record (62) at Pebble Beach, matching David Duval’s round in 1997. He was born in Long Beach, California and attended UCLA, which has clearly translated to his performance in the state throughout his career.

Cantlay has been struggling this year but has gotten progressively better in each start in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach, and the putter has been solid in the early part of the season. It hasn’t been pretty, but I believe after shaking the rust off Cantlay will find himself in contention at a golf course he’s very comfortable at.

Jordan Spieth +2000 (BetRivers)

With the exception of Augusta National, there might not be a course on Tour more suited to the strengths of Jordan Spieth.

He struggled last year, but prior to that he was in contention in just about every start at Pebble Beach. He finished 2nd in 2022, 3rd in 2021 and tied for 9th in 2021. He also won the event in 2017 and had two additional top ten finishes in 2014 and 2015.

Spieth is playing well to begin his 2024 campaign, finishing 3rd in his only start at The Sentry while gaining strokes on the field in all significant categories. With LIV Golf kicking off its season this week, the Tour would like nothing more than one of its most recognizable stars in contention at one of the world’s most iconic courses over the weekend.

Byeong Hun An +6600 (BetRivers)

In his two starts in 2024, Byeong Hun An has finished 4th at the Sentry and lost in a playoff at the Sony Open. As frustrating as it was to be on the losing side of his short playoff miss, it’s undeniable that An is currently playing the best golf of his career. 

In his start at the Sony, the South Korean gained 8.3 strokes from tee to green and despite the short miss, exhibited the ability to putt on West Coast POA, gaining 3.4 strokes putting.

An played in the event last year and finished 37th. However, he played in the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach and finished in a tie for 16th, showing he can compete at the course when conditions are tough.

The jury is still out on whether or not An can hit a clutch putt when it matters most, but he’s playing too well to ignore right now.

Beau Hossler +7000 (FanDuel)

Beau Hossler loves Pebble Beach. The 27-year-old grew up in Rancho Santa Margarita, California, which is only a few hours away from Pebble Beach.

In 2022, Hossler finished in solo third place at last year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and gained 4.1 strokes putting in two rounds at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Last year, he finished 11th. While he struggles at times to keep up with the best players in the world at longer tracks, he can catch a hot putter in this event. 

Hossler has had a strong start to his season, finishing 6th at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. The once “can’t miss” prospect has a chance this week to achieve a career defining win at a course that suits him perfectly.

Adam Scott +8000 (FanDuel)

Adam Scott is making his PGA Tour debut this week, but he’s quietly been getting reps throughout the early part of 2024. A few weeks ago, the Australian played in the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and finished in a tie for 7th place. He also played three other times in the fall and finished in a tie for 7th (Bermuda), 6th (Australian PGA), and a tie for 4th (Australian Open).

With Monterey Peninsula out of the mix and cold/rainy weather incoming, I anticipate the scores to be relatively high over the weekend. That should favor Scott and his dependable ball striking. In the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, Scott finished in a tie for 7th place. With difficult conditions and a strong field, the event might play similar to that Pebble Beach rather than the Pro-Am setup. The 41-year-old has played well in California in the past and has a win at Riviera and a runner-up at Torrey Pines.

At long odds, Scott is worth a shot this week.

Patrick Rodgers +150000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Rodgers hasn’t played well at Pebble Beach over the last four tries, but he did finish in a tie for 8th at the 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

In his three starts this season, Rodgers has finished 14th (Sentry), 24th (Sony), and a tie for 9th (Farmers Insurance Open). Last week at Torrey Pines, the former Stanford Cardinal gained 2.5 strokes off the tee and 1.1 on approach.

Pebble Beach may not be an ideal fit for Rodgers on paper, but he’s showing signs of consistency from the 31-year-old that we’ve been waiting to see for many years. His ability to putt on West Coast POA and strong current form makes him worth the chance at triple-digit odds.

Check this out.

There are over 5,000 brain surgeons in the U.S. earning an average income of $368,000. But only 190 PGA Tour professionals had winnings of that much in 2023. Add to that the 68 LPGA players and five Korn Ferry players who surpassed that figure. So, there are less than 270 professional golfers making more than the average brain surgeon. So, attaining the functioning highest level of golf skill must be almost twenty times more difficult than brain surgery…right?

With that bit of levity behind us (though these are real numbers), let’s talk about getting better at this game that has us captivated. I have never met a golfer who admitted he or she had absolutely no interest in getting better. Quite to the contrary, golfers who are even the least bit serious keep score, because they are at least somewhat interested in seeing those numbers get smaller. So, what better time of the year to make that promise to yourself than right now, as a new year begins?

The pathways to improvement can be widely different, depending on how badly you want to improve your golf game and your scoring. So, just for fun (that levity thing again), I thought I would share my observations about some of those pathways you might consider as your own for the coming year:

The “Wish” Path. This path is the easiest to execute because you don’t have to really do anything different from what you’ve always done. Just spend your time sitting around hoping your golf gets better.  I actually know a lot of golfers like that. They barely know where the practice range is, would never consider a real lesson and step up to the first tee shot with not much more than a half-hearted practice swing. And they wonder why they don’t get better.

I lost my father very early in life, but he left me with many “pearls of wisdom”, as he called them. One of my favorites of his more colorful ones was this:

“Son, just go wish in one hand and s**t in the other one and see which one fills up the fastest.”

The “Hope” Path. I’ll be the first to admit that this game is very difficult to attain any level of mastery.  The golf swing and all its many idiosyncrasies are not easy to ingrain to a level that offers any reliable measure of repeatability. And the golfer who can “self-teach” their way to even a consistent high single digit handicap is a rare bird indeed.

I can’t tell you how many golfers I frequently see on our practice range, banging away ball after ball after ball…quite apparently not working on learning a new position or movement, but just hoping that enough repetitions will allow them to create a measure of repeatability to improve their shot-to-shot consistency and therefore lower their scores.

Newsflash…the old saying that “practice makes perfect” does not apply to golf. Practice makes “permanent” and the more you practice that fundamentally unsound sequence of movements, the harder it will be to “unlearn” them and replace them with swing movements that really work.

With those two “fun” paths out of the way, let’s take a turn more serious and lay out three proven pathways to better golf.

• Improve your physical plant.  This is particularly important for those of us who are aging a bit faster than we’d like but applies to all of us who don’t routinely hit hundreds of golf balls a week.  The golf swing takes flexibility to execute and our daily routines are the enemy of flexibility.  Most of us spend too much time sitting and not enough time improving our range of motion that a good golf swing requires.  My key to having maintained my skills into my 70s is that I stretch every day . . . maybe not as much as I really should, but enough to still be able to make a full turn away from the ball and back through to a full follow-through.  Even if you do the minimum, it is remarkable what 10-12 minutes of stretching can do for your golf.  I won’t go into detail here because there are tons of good videos, programs and products out there.  Just do it!
• Learn, learn, learn.  You cannot execute a golf swing until you really understand it.  My father was a Ben Hogan disciple, so I was raised on Power Golf and Five Lessons.  And I was tutored as a youth by my father and our local golf pro.  I just wrote about Learning and Practice a few weeks ago.  Check it out and commit to learning about the golf swing in all its iterations – full swings, pitching, chipping and putting.  With understanding comes enlightenment.
• Carnegie Hall.  The old adage goes . . . “How do I get to Carnegie Hall??  The answer: “Practice. Practice. Practice.”  But practice with a definite purpose . . . ALWAYS.  As I mentioned earlier, just banging balls is fun, but it’s not practice.  And it won’t make you a better golfer.  When the PGA and LPGA tour players go to the range, they have a very specific thing they are practicing.  It might be a minute little adjustment but watch them if/when you get the chance.  They are not just banging balls one after the other.  Each swing is taken with a purpose and intent, followed by an evaluation of how they did.

So, there you have some levity and guidance to start your year.  Let me know your questions and I’ll do my best to give you sound answers you can bank on.  Always feel free to drop me a line.

To many, this event marks the true start of the PGA Tour season as it draws big names and a difficult test, which is something golf fans have been craving after three weeks of low scoring events.

The event will be played from Wednesday through Saturday this week for the second consecutive year to avoid going against the NFL conference championship games so golf fans can enjoy both sports.

Torrey Pines Golf Club (South) is a par-72 measuring 7,765 yards. Golfers will play three rounds on the South Course and one round on the North Course.

The South Course is the far more difficult of the two and features Poa Annua greens. The North Course is 7,258 yards and features Bentgrass greens.

The 2023 Farmers Insurance Open field is a full-field event comprised of 156 golfers. The field is very strong and will include Ludvig Aberg, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Min Woo Lee, Justin Thomas and Sahith Theegala. 

We’ve back tested past tournaments at Torrey Pines to see which metrics matter this week.

Past Winners at The Farmers Insurance Open

• 2023: Max Homa (-13)
• 2022: Luke List (-15)
• 2021: Patrick Reed (-14)
• 2020: Marc Leishman (-15)
• 2019: Justin Rose (-21)
• 2018: Jason Day (-10)
• 2017: Jon Rahm (-13)
• 2016: Brandt Snedeker (-6)
• 2015: Jason Day (-9)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Torrey Pines to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Hitting greens will be important due to the difficult around the green areas at Torrey Pines. Strokes Gained: Approach has been the most indicative statistic of top-10 finishers at the course historically.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Sam Ryder (+22.4)
2. Xander Schauffele (+21.5)
3. Eric Cole (+20.8)
4. Chez Reavie (+19.1)
5. Collin Morikawa (+19.0)

Driving Distance

Torrey Pines is a long course, and distance will absolutely be a major factor. Average driving distance is a far greater factor here than your average TOUR event, while driving accuracy is a lesser factor. We are most definitely looking at a bomber’s track this week.

Driving Distance per round in past 24 rounds:

1. Min Woo Lee (+22.4)
2. Cameron Champ (+21.0)
3. Chris Gotterup (+18.6)
4. Kevin Yu (+15.4)
5. Callum Tarren (+14.6) 

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa)

We typically see a lot of golfers play well in this area year after year. One determining factor in the consistent results is whether or not golfers prefer the Poa out West to other surfaces.

Great Poa putters typically play very well in California.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa) in past 24 rounds:

1. Xander Schauffele (+22.5)
2. Max Homa (+21.2)
3. Justin Suh (+20.5)
4. Peter Malnati (+16.0)
5. Mackenzie Hughes (+15.5)
   

Par 4: 450-500 Yards

Torrey Pines has a total of six par 4s between 450 and 500 yards on the South Course. To play well this week, golfers will need to outplay the field on these particular holes.

Total Par 4: 450-500 in past 24 rounds

1. Xander Schauffele (+15.6)
2. Beau Hossler (+15.0)
3. Eric Cole (+14.5)
4. Patrick Cantlay (+12.8)
5. Sahith Theegala (+12.5)

Par 5: 550-600 Yards

With all four par 5s at the Torrey Pines South Course measuring between 550 and 600 yards, the long hitters will have a major advantage. The course can play difficult, so it’s an absolute must to take care of the par 5s and make birdies.

Keegan Bradley ranked 5th in this range last year and finished runner-up at 60-1.

Par 5: 550-600 in past 24 rounds:

1. Garrick Higgo (+11.1)
2. Lee Hodges (+9.9)
3. Doug Ghim (+8.6)
4. Alexander Bjork (+8.1)
5. S.H. Kim (+8.0)

Course History

Here are the 10 best players in terms of Strokes Gained: Total at Torrey Pines South in the past 24 rounds. 

1. Tony Finau
2. Jason Day
3. Brandt Snedeker
4. Sungjae Im
5. Justin Rose
6. Will Zalatoris
7. Keegan Bradley
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Collin Morikawa
10. Hidedki Matsuyama

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (28%), Driving Distance (22%), Par 4: 450-500 (16%), Par 5: 550-600 (16%) and SG: Putting POA (18%).

1. Patrick Cantlay (+1000)
2. Taylor Pendrith (+8000)
3. Xander Schauffele (+900)
4. Max Homa (+1000)
5. Will Zalatoris (+4500)
6. Sahith Theegala (+4500)
7. Eric Cole (+3500)
8. Ludvig Aberg (+1800)
9. Chesson Hadley (+13000)
10. Shane Lowry (+5500)

2024 Farmers Insurance Open Picks

(Listed odds are at the time of writing)

Jason Day +3000 (FanDuel)

There aren’t many courses in the world that Jason Day has played better at than Torrey Pines. He won at the course in both 2015 and 2018 and also has four top-10 finishes at the course. In his past 24 rounds, Day ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Total at the course.

Day has had a solid start to his season finishing 10th at The Sentry and then 34th in a birdie fest at the American Express. The Australian has come to Torrey Pines and contended in far worse form than he is at the moment and got into contention despite of that fact. 

Putting on the bumpy and fast West Coast POA will be a key this week. Day has putt the ball extremely well at Torrey, including last year where he finished 7th and gained 5.8 strokes putting. In 2022, he finished 3rd and gained 3.9 strokes putting.

Day is currently enjoying one of the longest stretches of good health and consistent play in the past five years or so and is one of the players to beat this week in a historic event. 

Sahith Theegala +4500 (DraftKings)

Sahith Theegala will undoubtedly be a popular bet this week and for good reason. The former Pepperdine star grew up playing on west coast POA and has been fantastic on the west coast in general throughout his career. 

Theegala won the Fortinet Championship in California in the fall similar to how Max Homa won it prior to conquering Torrey Pines. Last year, Theegala finished 4th at the Farmers Insurance Open and was in contention for most of the round on Sunday. He also has plenty of other strong finishes out west including a 3rd at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and a 6th at the Genesis Invitational.

The 26-year-old opened his season with a 2nd place finish at the Sentry prior to missing the cut at the Sony. Theegala has shown consistently that he will show up and play his best at the Tour stops that he is best suited for.

Hideki Matsuyama +6500 (FanDuel)

In an event where a lot of the value on the betting board has seemingly dissipated, the odds for Hideki Matsuyama have drifted to a place where I feel it’s worth taking the chance on the Japanese star. It’s been a rough year for Matsuyama, who’s struggled to consistently play well and has dealt with a nagging neck injury.

The 30-year-old has had some success at Torrey Pines throughout his career and finished third at the course in 2019 and 12th in 2018. He was also able to finish 9th last season despite being in mediocre form, similar to the way he’s playing now. 

The 30th place in his most recent start at the Sony wasn’t extremely impressive, but Matsuyama did gain strokes across the board. He gained 1.7 strokes on approach and 1.2 off the tee, which is encouraging sign.

I’m not sure if we get peak ‘Deki this week, but if we do, he can beat anyone in the field.

Patrick Rodgers +8000 (BetMGM)

Thus far, 2024 has been the year of the Cinderella story. The winners have been Chris Kirk (150-1), Grayson Murray (400-1) and Nick Dunlap (300-1). In addition to the long odds, each of the three players have amazing stories such as Kirk and Murray’s recoveries from personal demons or Dunlap’s amazing feat of becoming the first amateur to win since Phil Mickelson in 1991. 

Patrick Rodgers winning at Torrey Pines would be another remarkable story. The Stanford graduate was once regarded as a can’t miss prospect and even broke Tiger Woods’ win record as a Cardinal. He won the Hogan award and was the top ranked amateur player in the world for 16 weeks.

Things haven’t gone according to plan for the former prodigy, who’s now 31 years old. Rodgers is yet to win on the PGA Tour and has been largely disappointing since turning professional. However, some of Rodgers’ best golf has been played at Torrey Pines. He has finished 4th here in 2017 and 9th in 2020. He’s also showed some encouraging signs of late. He narrowly lost to Akshay Bhatia at the Barracuda Championship late last summer and began his 2024 campaign with back-to-back strong performances, finishing 14th and 24th at the Sentry and Sony Open.

We’ve seen some amazing stories this season, but Patrick Rodgers returning to glory in the state where he was once considered golf’s next big thing may surpass them all.

The tournament is played at three different courses: PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Course and La Quinta Country Club.

Therefore, each golfer will play two rounds at PGA West Stadium Course, one round at PGA West Nicklaus Course, and one round at La Quinta Country Club. The Stadium Course is a 7,113-yard par 72 that was designed by Pete Dye in 1986. The Nicklaus Course is a Par 72 measuring 7,159 yards. La Quinta Country Club is a par 72 measuring 7,060 yards. All of the courses are short for a Par 72 and typically play easy, resulting in some very low winning scores.

The 2024 American Express field is a full-field event comprised of 156 golfers. The field is the strongest it’s been in recent memory, with some notable entrants to the event including Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler and Shane Lowry. Daniel Berger will also be making his return to the PGA Tour after being on medical leave since 2022. 

Past Winners at The American Express

• 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
• 2022: Hudson Swafford (-23)
• 2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
• 2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
• 2019: Adam Long (-26)
• 2018: Jon Rahm (-22)
• 2017: Hudson Swafford (-20)
• 2016: Jason Dufner (-25)
• 2015: Bill Haas (-22)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for PGA West to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

The American Express is another tournament where distance off the tee is not going to be a major factor. With none of the three courses being long this week, strong iron players tend to do very well at PGA West.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Xander Schauffele (+24.8)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+23.7)
3. Sam Ryder (+22.4)
4. Erik Van Rooyen (+20.5)
5. Eric Cole (+19.4)

Opportunities Gained

All three courses this week are among the easiest on Tour. In order to win, golfers are going to have to go very low. Creating as many chances as possible to make birdies from 15 feet and in this week will be crucial.

Total Opportunities Gained in past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+40.5)
2. Chris Kirk (+22.7)
3. Xander Schauffele (+22.5)
4. Justin Thomas (+22.2)
5. J.T. Poston (+22.0)

Proximity 150-175

Approach shots from 150-175 are the most common yardages year after year at The American Express. 24% of approach shots come from this range as opposed to the Tour average of 20.3%.

Proximity 150-175 in past 24 rounds:

1. Akshay Bhatia (+14.9)
2. Xander Schauffele (+11.7) 
3. Sam Ryder (+11.5)
4. Taylor Pendrith (+11.3)
5. Mark Hubbard (+11.2)
   

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

With small greens, there are very few three-putts in this event. Golfers will need to ball strike their way to low scores with smaller greens than Tour average.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+41.4)
2. Erik Van Rooyen (+31.1)
3. Jhonnatan Vegas (+29.9)
4. Patrick Cantlay (+29.5)
5. Xander Schauffele (+28.0)

SG: Pete Dye 

With two of four rounds on the Pete Dye-designed PGA West, it will be important to target players who excel on Pete Dye tracks. Golfers with good history at these styles of course tend to pop up on leaderboards of Dye designs on a regular basis.

Total Strokes Gained: Pete Dye in past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+52.5) 
2. Patrick Cantlay (+47.0)
3. Xander Schauffele (+41.4)
4. Sungjae Im (+39.1)
5. Justin Thomas (+38.4)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (27%); Opportunities Gained (22%); SG: Ball Striking (22%); Proximity 150-175 (12%); and SG: Pete Dye (17%)

1. Scottie Scheffler (+650)
2. Xander Schauffele (+1000)
3. Patrick Cantlay (+1000)
4. Sam Ryder (+12000)
5. Eric Cole (+3500)
6. Chris Kirk (+3500)
7. Shane Lowry (+6000)
8. Doug Ghim (+12000)
9. Erik Van Rooyen (+10000)
10. Alex Smalley (+6500)

2024 American Express Picks

Jason Day +3500 (FanDuel)

Jason Day kicked off his 2024 season with a solid performance at The Sentry, finishing in a tie for 10th. The veteran will now get ready for the west coast swing, which has historically been the stretch of the season where Day has played his best golf, and last season was no exception. The Australian finished 18th, 7th, 5th and 9th at the American Express, Farmers Insurance, Waste Management Phoenix Open and Genesis Invitational. Day showed his preference for putting on west coast greens during that stretch gaining 4.9, 5.8, 3.7 and 4.3 strokes putting respectively.

Day doesn’t typically play at PGA West, but he did last year, finishing 18th in his second ever start at the event. He also showed he can win a low scoring event at last year’s AT&T Byron Nelson, shooting -23 for the event. Another reason to believe Day will have success this week is his history on Pete Dye designed courses. In his past 50 rounds, he ranks 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks.

I believe Day will build on his resurgent 2023 and contend in one or more of these west coast tournaments.

Sam Burns+3500 (DraftKings)

Sam Burns has some encouraging history at the American Express. In his four starts at the course, he has finishes of 18th, 6th and 11th to go along with a missed cut. He also has loved the west coast swing, with a 3rd place finish at Riviera (2021), a 6th place finish at the WMPO (2023), and a 7th at the Fortinet (2020).

Sam Burns has been consistent on Pete Dye designs, ranking 8th in his past 24 rounds on Dye designed courses. The fact that he will play two of the four rounds at the stadium course, including the final round, gives me confidence in his chances to win if he gets in contention.

The American Express can turn into a putting contest, and if it does, Burns has the ability to beat anyone in the field.

Tony Finau +4000 (FanDuel)

Tony Finau is another player who’s done some of his best work on the west coast. In 2021, he finished 2nd at both the Farmers Insurance Open and the Genesis Invitational. In total, Finau has seven top-5 finishes on the west coast including the American Express in 2021, where he was narrowly defeated by Si Woo Kim down the stretch.

Finau didn’t start his season well at the Sentry but managed to gain strokes on approach and with the putter. I believe a trip to a course that he’s contended on in the past will serve him well and is one of the most talented players in the field. Finau has also showed that he loves Pete Dye designs in the past, ranking 9th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds.

Although he’s been inconsistent, the win equity Finau offers is too tempting to ignore at this price.

Adam Hadwin +6500 (FanDuel)

Adam Hadwin is the type of player who consistently performs well on his favorite courses on the PGA Tour. The rotation of courses at the American Express certainly fit that description. In his past seven starts at the event, Hadwin has finished in the top 20 five times, including four of those in the top 6.

Hadwin missed the cut at last week’s Sony Open, but he was top-20 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach in the first round. He’s also shown in the past his Sony Open results don’t translate to the American Express. In 2019, the Canadian was 59th at Sony, losing strokes on approach for the week, and finished runner-up at the American Express the following week.

Hadwin hasn’t won since 2017 and it feels as if he’s long overdue for a win. Three of his seven top-3 finishes on Tour have come at this event. If there’s anywhere that I feel confident that he can get it done, it’s PGA West.

Alex Noren +8000 (DraftKings)

Alex Noren has sneakily played some fantastic golf since the end of the 2023 PGA Tour season. In November, he finished 2nd at the Butterfield Bermuda and 23rd at the RSM Classic. He also finished 3rd at the Shriners in October, which is a course and region that has plenty of similarities to what we will see this week at the American Express.

In addition to the 3rd at TPC Summerlin (2023), Noren also has a 2nd at the Farmers (2018) which ended in a six-hole playoff loss to Jason Day, a sixth at the WMPO (2022) and a 12th at the Genesis Invitational.

The Swede has yet to win on the PGA Tour but has won ten times on the DP World Tour. Noren certainly has the talent to win and is showing signs of returning to the form that made him a Ryder Cup participant in 2018.

Erik Van Rooyen +11000 (FanDuel)

Erik Van Rooyen won in Mexico at the end of 2023 and hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down since. He finished 22nd at the Sentry, gaining 3.3 strokes on approach. He followed it up with an even better iron performance last week at the Sony Open, gaining 4.8 strokes on approach.

EVR finished 6th at the American Express last year despite being in poor form at the time, missing cuts in six of his past seven cuts entering the event. The South African has proven he can win birdie-fests in the past and this is an event where players have consistently won at triple digit odds.

In his past 24 rounds, Van Rooyen ranks 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 2nd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Patton Kizzire +27000 (FanDuel)

Patton Kizzire finished 11th at the American Express last year after a 76th place finish at the Sony Open. He finished 22nd in 2022 and has seemingly begun to figure the courses out if his gradual improvement is any indication.

Kizzire has two top-5’s at the Shriners and a 7th place finish at Torrey Pines in his career, so he’s no stranger to playing well on the west coast. Kizzire has also played well at similar events as Hudson Swafford, who’s won the American Express twice.

A two-time PGA Tour winner, Kizzire is the type of long shot who I believe can pull off an upset if he gets involved over the weekend at PGA West.

Golf can be very chaotic through the course of a round. Once the ball leaves the clubhead, the ball is at the mercy of the golf course and out of your control. You will have good and bad bounces, putts lipping in or out and unexpected gusts of wind.

• Related: Kelley: Focus on what you can control Pt. 1

It is irrational to completely base your performance on your score due to the unknown. Learn to focus or even base a score on what you can control on the course for an optimal performance state. Here is how to start.

1. Establish a gameplan before the round and make a commitment.

Before your round, decide on something you can control to base your performance on. An example of this would be “being present during the round” or “what you are mindful of during shots”. Leading performance coach Karl Morris describes this as a “commitment” made before the round. After the round, develop a scoring system to how well you kept the commitment. Successful NFL teams will develop a well established game plan before the game and stick with the plan despite early setbacks.

2. Your post-shot reactions

This is always easier said then done. It’s one thing to stay neutral on a good shot, but having the discipline to stay neutral on a poor shot takes work. Rather then getting upset or down on yourself after a bad shot, use the bad shot as a chance to learn from the shot.

Learning from a bad shot first entails understanding why the ball flew that direction. For example if the ball started left and hooked, understand the face was closed to the target and path. Knowing what caused these shots with your swing will give you direction on a solution. Embrace the art of managing your misses. Golf should be holistically viewed as one big learning experience from working on your swing to adapting to playing in your club championship.

3. Being present

You hear this term all the time but I find players don’t completely understand the importance and how to go about doing so. The research is overwhelming on what being fully present during tasks can do to not only your mental health, but golf performance.

Being present keeps you not dwelling on the past or “future tripping” which can trigger unwarranted anxiety. Nerves should be embraced in golf, but not anxiety. Looking ahead (future tee-shot on a difficult hole) and not being present, is a recipe for anxiety.

Being present takes practice so start small. A great way to start is to focus on your feet when walking in between shots. Feel the pressure in your feet, what your feet feel like with each step. If your mind wonders, bring your attention back to your feet. The feet are just one example, there are countless others and find what’s best for you. Before you know it, you will be emerged in every shot and the enjoyment of playing golf.

Since 2010, the winners at Waialae have gained 48.6% of their strokes against the field putting, which is the highest of any course on TOUR. In the past five editions of the tournament, there have been nine first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the nine, four have come from the morning wave, and five have come from the afternoon wave. It appears there is no real advantage to either starting time historically but that may be impacted this year as a result of the weather.

As of Tuesday, the wind looks as if it may be a factor during round one. The early starters should see winds 12 MPH with gusts up to 17 MPH. The afternoon starters will have the more difficult draw. Winds will be around 20 MPH with gusts up to 28 MPH. For this reason, I’d favor AM starters but wouldn’t rule out the PM wave completely.

Sony Open First-Round-Leader Selections

Billy Horschel +8000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:20 a.m. Local Time

Last week, we saw veteran Chris Kirk benefit from having some time off. I feel the same may apply to Billy Horschel.

Horschel ended 2023 summer strong, finishing 13th at the 3M Open and 4th at the Wyndham Championship. He then went over to the DP World Tour and finished in the top 20 in three of his four starts, including a T14 at the Alfred Dunhill Links. The busy schedule caught up with the 37-year-old, and he missed the cut at the RSM Classic.

If Billy is recharged, Waialae should be a good course for him to perform well at. He finished 7th here in 2021, posting four rounds of 66 or better (65, 66, 66, 65). Horschel should enter 2024 with a chip on his shoulder.

Justin Suh +8000 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 1 p.m Local Time

Last season, Justin Suh seemed to have a habit of starting quickly out of the gates and fizzle over the weekend. Therefore, to start 2024, I’ll be looking to target him in the first-round-leader market rather than the outright market.

The numbers would indicate that Suh being a fast starter is indeed the case. In his past 24 rounds, the USC product ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in round one. A short, scoreable course should suit Suh well this week.

Taiga Semikawa +10000 (Caesars)

First-Round Tee Time: 9 a.m Local Time

Taiga Semikawa has been scorching hot of late, finishing in the top ten of four of his past five starts on the Japan Tour, inlcuding a dominant victory in his most recent start. The 23-year-old is busting at the seams with talent, and I believe will eventually become a factor on the PGA Tour. Waialae should provide a pretty comfortable layout for the young Japanese star.

Did I mention he was named after Tiger Woods?

Jhonnatan Vegas +12500 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:30 a.m Local Time

I am absolutely ecstatic to have Jhonnatan Vegas back on the PGA Tour after an injury hiatus, as he will be featured in my first-round-leader column regularly in 2024.

After eight months off, the Venezuelan played twice this fall on the DP World Tour and looked to have quickly returned to form. After a missed cut to shake off the rust in his first start, he finished 17th at the ISPS Handa Australian Open.

Vegas has historically been a fast starter. In his past 50 rounds, the 39-year-old ranks 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in round one.

Harry Hall +14000 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 1:10 p.m Local Time

Harry Hall finished 28th in his debut at the Sony Open last season, posting four rounds in the 60’s including an opening round 66. The Englishman has been excellent on resort courses and also finished 3rd (and really should have won) the Charles Schwab at Colonial which shares strong leaderboard correlation with Waialae.

I tend to favor good putters for first-round leader bets and Hall ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting in the first round in his past 24 rounds.

Nico Echavarria +14000 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:10 a.m Local Time

Nico Echavarria has his specialty courses on Tour, and there’s plenty of reason to believe that Waialae could be one of them. He finished 12th at the course last year and his season started strong with a 25th place finish at The Sentry last week in a loaded field.

Last season, the Colombian won the Puerto Rico Open while missing four straight cuts prior to the win and missing two cuts immediately after demonstrating his love for the coast. As Ernest Hemingway once said, “A man is never lost at sea”.

Joel Dahmen +15000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:40 a.m Local Time

Joel Dahmen had a strong fall, finishing 13th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and 7th at the Shriners Children’s Open, gaining 4.6 strokes on approach at TPC Summerlin, which is the most he’d gained since November of 2022.

Dahmen has had some solid starts at Waialae, finishing 22nd at the course in 2019 and 12th in 2020, closing with a 4th round 66.

The fan-favorite will be looking to hit the ground running it 2024.

The Sony Open field is comprised of 144 golfers. Some notable names in the field include Ludvig Aberg, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brian Harman, Corey Conners, Billy Horschel, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama and Will Zalatoris.

The Sony Open is typically a low-scoring affair, and we should see plenty of birdies. Wind is about all the course has in terms of defense, so it may prove wise to keep an eye on the forecast this week.

Past Winners at the Sony Open

• 2023: Si Woo Kim (-18)
• 2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23)
• 2021: Kevin Na (-21)
• 2020: Cameron Smith (-11)
• 2019: Matt Kuchar (-22)
• 2018: Patton Kizzire (-17)
• 2017: Justin Thomas (-27)
• 2016: Fabian Gomez (-20)
• 2015: Jimmy Walker (-23)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Waialae Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Green sizes are much smaller at Waialae than we saw last week at Kapalua. Golfers will also be hitting greens in regulation at a far lower clip, therefore requiring iron play to be even more sharp in order to go low.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Lucas Glover (+20.6)
2. Hideki Matsuyama (+19.2)
3. Gary Woodland (+18.9)
4. Chez Reavie (+18.3)
5. Ryan Moore (+16.5)

Good Drives Gained

Not only are the greens much smaller at Waialae than we saw at Kapalua, but the fairways are also a lot smaller as well. Last week, golfers were spraying errant drives with little consequence; that won’t be the case this week.

While missing the fairway might not be incredibly penal, those who split the middle on the narrow fairways will be rewarded with flat lies and straightforward approach shots.

Total Good Drives Gained in past 24 rounds:

1. Tyler Duncan (+25.0)
2. Josh Teater (+23.8)
3. Andrew Putnam (+23.6)
4. J.J. Spaun (+23.5) 
5. Martin Laird (+20.7)

Strokes Gained: Short Game

With small fairways and greens, it is to be expected that golfers will have to scramble around the green at one point or another. Strokes Gained: Short Game encompasses both chipping around the green and putting to account for tough par putts while scrambling.

Historically, players with great hands and short games have had success here (Justin Thomas, Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Cameron Smith, Kevin Na).

Strokes Gained: Short Game in past 24 rounds:

1. Sahith Theegala (+30.3)
2. Taylor Montgomery (+28.0)
3. J.T. Poston (+26.6)
4. Ludvig Aberg (+25.2)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+25.1)
   

Birdie or Better Gained

While Waialae presents its fair share of challenges, the winning score will likely be somewhere in the -20 to -27 range; therefore, birdies are a must.  In an event where par isn’t good enough on most holes, golfers who can get hot and go low need to be targeted this week.

Birdie or Better Gained past 24 rounds:

1. Eric Cole (+39.9)
2. Ludvig Aberg (+29.0)
3. J.T. Poston (+23.7) 
4. Justin Suh (+19.9)
5. Luke List (+19.3)

Course History

Course history seems to be particularly important at Waialae, as 17 of the past 18 winners have played the course previously before hoisting the trophy. It is also common to see similar players pop up on the leaderboard year after year in Honolulu, so a bit of course history should be factored in.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds (per round, minimum 16 rounds):

1. Corey Conners (+1.8)
2. Justin Rose (+1.7)
3. Chris Kirk (+1.4) 
4. Webb Simpson (+1.2)
5. Russell Henley (+1.2)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (27.5%) Good Drives Gained (22.5%); SG: Short Game (18%); Course History (18%); and Birdie or Better Gained (14%)

1. Russell Henley (+2200)
2. Eric Cole (+3500)
3. Justin Rose (+4000)
4. Brian Harman (+2500)
5. Adam Svensson (+6000)
6. J.T. Poston (+4000)
7. J.J. Spaun (+5500)
8. Alex Noren (+5500)
9. Ben Griffin (+7000)
10. Stephan Jaeger (+5000)

2024 Sony Open Picks

Corey Conners +3300 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners played in last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions, finishing in 33rd place. History would indicate that just playing at Kapalua is a strong indicator of success at the Sony Open, with 17 of the past 25 winners having done so. The Canadian finished strong and shot 67 (-6) in his final round Sunday. In his final round, he led the field in approach (+2.6 strokes) and ranked 4th for the week in Strokes Gained: Approach. 

Another strong indicator of success at the Sony Open has been past success at Waialae. In Conners’ last four starts at the event, he’s finished 3rd, 12th, 11th and 12th. C0nners ranks first in Strokes Gained: Total at the course in his past 24 rounds. 

Conners historically struggles with the putter, but that hasn’t been the case at Waialae. In his past four starts at the course, he’s gained over a stroke per event on the field on the greens. 

After getting the rust off last week at The Sentry, Conners should once again find himself in the mix at one of his favorite courses on the PGA Tour.

Chris Kirk +3500 (FanDuel)

Chris Kirk is fresh off his sixth PGA Tour win. While I don’t typically back players to repeat immediately after a win, Kirk seems like an ideal candidate to go back-to-back in the Hawaii swing. 

Kirk has been fantastic at Waialae in the past, boasting finishes of 3rd (2023), 2nd (2021) and 10th (2018). In his past 24 rounds at the course, the 37-year-old ranks 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total.

The veteran comes into the week booming with confidence. He ranks 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (past 24 rounds) and is playing some of the best golf of his career. Justin Thomas won both The Sentry and the Sony Open in 2017, and five others have achieved the same feat (JT, Cam Smith, Zach Johnson, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els and Jim Furyk).  Kirk will look to add his name to the record books in 2023.

Byeong Hun An +4000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An put in a fantastic performance in his season debut at last week’s The Sentry. The South Korean finished in a tie for 3rd and gained 4.6 strokes from tee to green. An also rolled it well, showing his affinity for putting well on a similar green type to what he’ll see this week.

An finished 12th at last year’s Sony Open in his tournament debut. In addition to the encouraging start at Waialae, the 32-year-old also plays many of the comparable courses to Waialae well also. He has a 2nd place finish at Sedgefield Country Club and a 7th place finish at the RBC Heritage.

Since regaining his PGA Tour card in 2022, An has gotten progressively better. A first PGA Tour win for the veteran feels extremely close.

Cameron Davis +5000 (BetMGM)

Cameron Davis struggled mightily throughout his first three rounds of The Sentry. However, the Aussie shot a 65 (-8) on Sunday and most of his strokes throughout the week were lost around the green. For his career, Davis has had a solid around the green game so that seems to be an outlier.

Davis ranks 14th in Strokes Gained: Total at Waialae and finished 9th in 2020, so he has some familiarity with the course. He’s also had a good deal of success at other similar tracks. The 28-year-old has a 7th place finish at Wyndham (2023) and a 3rd at the RBC Heritage (2022).

Davis is a birdie-maker with winning upside and will look to join Cameron Smith as an Australian to win at Waialae.

Seamus Power +20000 (FanDuel)

2023 was a tough year for Seamus Power. The Irishman has been struggling mightily but was able to get into last week’s Sentry due to his win at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship during the 2022 swing season. The fact that Power played last week and was able to potentially shake off some rust could be a good sign for his chances this week at the Sony Open.

Power finished 3rd at Waialae back in 2022, and is a perfect course fit for him when he is in form. The 36-year-old thrives on coastal Bermuda and loves short courses where he can dial in his wedges and go low.

It’s unclear if Power has found anything in terms of form, but at triple digits in a field that doesn’t feature many of the best in the world, it’s certainly worth chancing.

Joel Dahmen +30000 (FanDuel)

Joel Dahmen is another player who struggled in 2023 but showed some signs of a resurgence during the 2023 swing season. He finished 13th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and 7th at the Shriners Children’s Open, gaining 4.6 strokes on approach at TPC Summerlin, which is the most he’d gained since November of 2022.

If he’s back to what he was pre-funk, Dahmen should set up well for Waialae. He finished 22nd at the course in 2019 and 12th in 2020, and plays many of the comparable courses effectively. The 36-year-old has finished 5th at the RSM Classic (2022), 12th at the RBC Heritage (2022) and won a coastal event at the Corales Puntacana.

Dahmen is a player at long odds who has winning upside if he gets into contention over the weekend.

Nico Echavarria +40000 (FanDuel)

Nico Echavarria is a player that specializes in coastal birdie fests. Last season, the Colombian won the Puerto Rico Open while missing four straight cuts prior to the win and missing two cuts immediately after. He also finished 12th at Waialae two months prior while missing two cuts before and four after.

Echavarria will have the benefit this year of playing the week before at the Sentry, which has been a benefit for most players at this event. The 29-year-old got off to a solid start at Kapalua, finishing 25th and posting a score of -20 for the week.

If the players at the top of the market fail to contend, Nico has experience winning tournaments in a similar environment.

The Tournament of Champions is a no-cut event and usually plays pretty easy. Six of the past seven winners have finished with a score of -22 or better, and the 2022 champion, Cameron Smith, set the tournament record by finishing at -34. Jon Rahm went low in 2023 as well, finishing at -27. Wide fairways and soft greens make the event scoreable, but coastal wind and elevation changes can occasionally make some shots difficult.

The field will feature 59 of the world’s top golfers including Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Tony Finau and Jordan Spieth. The new qualification rules allow for anyone in the top 50 in the final FedEx Cup points last season to take part in the event as well as winners from last season. 

Past Winners at The Sentry

• 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
• 2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
• 2021: Harris English (-25)
• 2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
• 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
• 2018: Dustin Johnson (-24)
• 2017: Justin Thomas (-22)
• 2016: Jordan Spieth (-30)
• 2015: Patrick Reed (-21)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Kapalua’s Plantation Course to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

With Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentages extremely high at Kapalua (78.9%), just getting on the putting surface won’t cut it. In a very low-scoring event, golfers will need to have their irons and wedges dialed in to provide scoring opportunities.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+32.3
2. Lucas Glover (+29.5) 
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+23.2) 
4. J.T. Poston (+22.8) 
5. Xander Schauffele (+21.9)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

With fairways being wide and easy to hit, bombers should be able to let it rip off the tee this week. Golfers with a strong off-the-tee game should end up with a wedge in their hand for their approach shot which will give them an advantage on the shorter hitters. 

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:

1. Ludvig Aberg (+24.7)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+24.2)
3. Viktor Hovland (+21.6)
4. Byeong Hun An (+18.8)
5. Corey Conners (+17.8)

Proximity 100-125 Yards

With a good deal of short par 4s on the course and easy-to-hit fairways, golfers will have wedges in their hands looking to attack pins. Historically, wedge play has been a major factor in determining a winner in Maui, and I expect that to continue in the 2024 edition.

Proximity 100-125 in past 24 rounds:

1. Hideki Matsuyama (+13.0)
2. Camilo Villegas (+12.4) 
3. Brendon Todd (+10.7)
4. Lucas Glover (+7.8)
5. Russell Henley (+7.7)
   

Strokes Gained: Par 5

Taking advantage of all of the par 5s will be crucial this week. Historically, par-5 scoring has been more indicative of the winner at this tournament than par-3 or par-4 scoring. The player who posts the lowest cumulative score on the par-5 holes will put themselves in a good position to win come Sunday.

Total Strokes Gained: Par 5 in Past 24 rounds

1. Cameron Young (+13.6)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+11.8)
3. Erik Van Rooyen (+11.1)
4. Lee Hodges (+11.0)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+10.3) 

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) (Velcro)

The Bermudagrass greens at Kapalua are notoriously slow. In a low-scoring event, golfers will need to make a lot of putts to win, and those who prefer putting on slow Bermuda should have the advantage. There have been a good deal of elite putters (Smith, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth) who have had great success at Kapalua in the past.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

1. Andrew Putnam (+1.5)
2. Jordan Spieth (+0.8)
3. Patrick Cantlay (+0.6)
4. Xander Schauffele (+0.5)
5. J.T.  Poston (+0.4)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%) SG: OTT (20%); SG: Par 5 (20%); Prox 100-125 (15%); and SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) (Velcro) (15%)

1. Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
2. Collin Morikawa (+2800)
3. Xander Schauffele (+1800)
4. Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
5. Russell Henley (+2000)
6. Viktor Hovland (+1200)
7. Lucas Glover (+2000)
8. Adam Svensson (+6000)
9. Tom Kim (+2000)
10. J.T. Poston (+1200)

2024 Sentry Tournament of Champions Picks

Jordan Spieth +2800 (BetRivers):

Jordan Spieth was winless in 2023 but continued to play solid golf, finishing 27th in the FedEx Cup standings. The three-time major champion played in Tiger Woods’ Hero World Challenge and showed that he’s been working on his game in the off-season. Spieth finished 6th in the event and shot four rounds under par.

Jordan has had success at Kapalua, winning the tournament in 2016 and also has a 2nd (2014), 3rd (2017) and 9th (2018). In his past 24 rounds at the course, Spieth ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total amongst those playing in the event.

The PGA Tour could certainly benefit from a star player like Jordan Spieth starting off 2024 hot, and I believe he has a chance to get an early win at The Sentry.

Rickie Fowler +3500 (DraftKings):

Rickie Fowler is coming off his best season in a long while and his work with Butch Harmon has clearly paid dividends. The 35-year-old broke through for a victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and had a few additional close calls, including a fantastic performance at the U.S. Open where he finished runner-up to Wyndham Clark.

Fowler has been incredibly consistent over the course of his career at Kapalua. He’s played the event four times since 2013, and boasts finishes of 6th (2013), 5th (2016), 4th (2018) and 5th (2020). It appears that when Rickie is playing well, he finishes near the top of the Sentry.

Rickie certainly has the type of game that should thrive at Kapalua. He is solid with his wedges (20th in the field) and putts well on slow Bermudagrass greens (9th in the field). The PGA Tour season could get off to a flying start with one of the most popular players on Tour winning the first signature event of the season.

Jason Day +5000 (BetRivers):

Jason Day had a resurgent 2023, winning for the first time in five years at the AT&T Byron Nelson.  and if his fall has been any indication, he has no plans on slowing down in 2024. He missed a few cuts after the win, but still managed a runner-up finish at the Open Championship.

Day’s strong season continued into the fall. The Australian and his partner Lydia Ko won the Grant Thornton Invitational, which was closely contested and likely tested his nerves a bit down the stretch. Day then finished 11th at the Hero World Challenge but was in contention going into Sunday prior to a disappointing 74 in the final round.

Day hasn’t played at Kapalua since 2019, but prior to that, he had some encouraging results at the course. He finished 3rd in 2015 and 10th in 2016. Additionally, Australians have won six times in the past.

I don’t typically love backing Day in events where the winner needs to go extremely low, but the 36-year-old managed to reach -23 in his win in Texas last season. A Jason Day who’s shown signs of solid recent form at 50-1 in a 59-man field is too much value to pass up to start the season.

1.) Viktor Hovland will rise to world No. 1: This prediction didn’t quite come true. However, Hovland had the biggest improvement of any player in the world in terms of strokes gained.

The biggest Strokes Gained changes YoY.

Viktor Hovland jumped from 1.05/rd to 1.69/rd.

Obviously it’s all relative — Rory McIlroy was better than Hovland but was coming off a career year in 2022.

To the surprise of basically no one, both Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele… pic.twitter.com/Nw4UEg42ft

— Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood) December 18, 2023

His star rose exponentially, and he climbed to 4th in the OWGR from 10th at the start of 2023.

2.) The European Team will win the 2023 Ryder Cup: This prediction came true in dominating fashion. At the time of writing it, the European team were +200 to win the Ryder Cup.

3.) Dustin Johnson will win a major championship: This prediction was the worst of the five. Although DJ did finish 10th at the U.S. Open, he underachieved in the majors in their entirety during the 2023 season.

4.) The Masters will see a drastic uptick in TV ratings: This prediction passed with flying colors, as the 2023 Masters was the most-watched edition of the tournament in five years.

CBS Sports' Masters Marathon delivers 16.251 million combined total viewers on CBS for coverage of Sunday's Third and Final Rounds.
 
Details: https://t.co/pusqP8aDYm pic.twitter.com/HMs7WuFAKl

— CBS Sports PR (@CBSSportsGang) April 11, 2023

5.) Rory McIlroy will remain stuck at 4 major championships: Rory came close at the U.S. Open, finishing 2nd to Wyndham Clark, however, he remained stuck at four majors and will now officially go at least a full decade between major championship victories.

Now, on to the predictions for 2024.

1. Bryson DeChambeau will win a major championship

Contrary to what many believed heading into the 2023 season, LIV golfers performed admirably at the major championships. Brooks Koepka was in the final pairing with Jon Rahm at the Masters and finished in a tie for 2nd alongside fellow LIV player Phil Mickelson. LIV Golfers have also been on a recent hot streak, winning five of the past six DP World Tour events. Regardless of how people feel about the LIV Golf product, it’s been proven that the players remain motivated in majors and other events that feature players from other tours.

DeChambeau took some time to begin playing up to his standards, but once he got going, he finished the season strong. After finishing 4th at the PGA Championship (he was also the first-round leader), he went on to finish 2nd at LIV Valderrama and won both LIV Greenbrier and LIV Chicago.

After a few years of substandard play, it finally seems as if DeChambeau is once again becoming the player that won the U.S. Open in 2020 and was one of the best players in the world. I can see Valhalla (PGA Championship) and Pinehurst N0. 2 (U.S. Open) as excellent course fits for the 30-year-old.

2. Justin Thomas will win 3 times

After a dismal 2023, Justin Thomas has slipped all the way to 26th in the OWGR. The two-time major champion missed six cuts in twenty starts on the year and finished better than 10th just twice.

Peaks and valleys in the careers of top professional golfers have been a constant throughout the history of the sport, and Thomas is no exception. In terms of talent, JT is still one of the best players in the world, and I have no doubts that after an off-season of work, he will return in good form for 2024.

I expect Thomas to win three times in 2024 and return to the upper echelon of golfers on the PGA Tour.

3. The Presidents Cup will allow LIV golfers to participate

In 2022, LIV golfers were not allowed to play in the Presidents Cup. Unlike the Ryder Cup, the International players on the Presidents Cup team make up a large portion of the potential best players on the team. The LIV threat was new at the time, so it wasn’t a major surprise that the defectors were banned from the event. However, some players still were shocked by the decision, including South African Louis Oosthuizen.

“There’s no rule that says I need to be a PGA Tour member to play the Presidents Cup, especially as an International team player,” Oosthuizen said after he was banned at the press conference for LIV Golf Chicago. “I didn’t think I did anything wrong. I made my decision where I am playing golf. But I didn’t do anything wrong while I was a PGA Tour member.”

In addition to Oosthuizen, Cameron Smith, Joaquin Niemann, Marc Leishman, Abraham Ancer were also banned from the event. The result was predictable. Despite a valiant effort from Trevor Immelman’s International side, the United States won convincingly, 17.5-12.5.

Since 2022, the golf landscape has changed significantly. Jon Rahm has signed with LIV and that means there will likely be a change in the qualifying system for Ryder Cup. Rory McIlroy, who’s been one of the most outspoken anti-LIV voices, has called for a change to allow for Rahm to play at Bethpage Black in 2025. I expect his wishes to be accommodated and for the Presidents Cup to tweak the language allowing LIV players to participate in 2024.

4. Michael Thorbjornsen will emerge as a star

Towards the end of the 2022-2023 season, the golf world became mesmerized by the emergence of the young Swede, Ludvig Aberg. In a time where the emergence of a star was greatly needed, the now 24-year-old won the Omega European Masters and followed the victory up with a sensational debut in the European Ryder Cup victory.

Towards the back half of the season, I expect Michael Thorbjornsen to flash a similar trajectory. The Stanford senior is currently No. 1 in PGA Tour University’s first ranking for 2024 and should earn a PGA Tour card if he continues to play well until through the NCAA Championship. Once he begins to earn consistent starts on Tour, he has the game to make an immediate impact.

Thorbjornsen has the look, swing, and pedigree to win immediately at the highest level, and I believe he will do so in 2024.

5. Tommy Fleetwood will earn his first PGA Tour victory

Last season, Tommy Fleetwood came torturously close to victory on multiple occasions. The Englishman lost the RBC Canadian Open to Nick Taylor with a nearly 70-foot bomb on the 4th playoff hole and he had five total finishes of T5 or better in 2023.

It’s been a long time coming for Fleetwood, who has six DP World Tour victories, but always seems to come up short on the PGA Tour. In 2024, a handful of the world’s top 15 players will be playing on LIV, including their newest signing, Jon Rahm. The lack of depth on the PGA Tour in conjunction with Tommy’s continuous improvement on the PGA Tour should result in the fan-favorite finally notching a win on United States soil.

On any given day at golf clubs and courses nationwide, individuals queue up and invest upwards of $500 per hour for instruction. The scenario typically unfolds like this: you arrive, hit a few shots, receive some compliments from the instructor, and then endure a 10-15 minute discourse about your swing. The more money you spend, the more the conversation veers into technical jargon, referencing “data” from devices like Trackman or FlightScope. Often, students are unfamiliar with this terminology but hesitate to admit it. The instructor proceeds to explain how difficult it is to implement a specific change, offering a random adjustment, and if fortunate, a practice drill, before moving on swiftly to the next lesson.

Golf guru and thinker Jim McLean notes that instructors fall into three categories: method teacher, system teacher, or non-system teacher. A method teacher employs a uniform teaching style for everyone. A non-system teacher teaches based on trendy moves, often highlighted in recent articles. Finally, a system teacher understands the cause and effect of patterns and movements on trajectory, curve, and distance. Sadly, 99 percent of instructors fall into the method or non-system categories, and 100 percent of these are charlatans.

This isn’t to say that method teachers always fail. Occasionally, a method might yield quick improvements for a few lucky individuals. You might know someone whose game notably improved after receiving feedback from a method or non-systems teacher. However, this improvement is often more a placebo effect than a lasting transformation. As a result; that lesson that went well two weeks ago has all of a sudden turned into a total golf swing overhaul. So begins the journey to “good golf tomorrow” (with tomorrow never coming).

Golfers need to be the star of their own golf lessons. This process begins with ownership and setting expectations for your lessons. While a higher handicap might aim to simply straighten shots, better players should tackle multiple skills in a session. Either way, you must show up early, warm up, and express your expectations clearly. Demand precise feedback on your technique, as well as at least a couple of drills to practice.

After the lesson, spend 5-10 minutes on the drill(s) that were prescribed. Without the instruction there, do you still notice changes? If not, red flags abound!

Once you’ve nailed the basics of arm structure and club face awareness, the rest isn’t really that hard. The problem is that golf magazines and instructors have created a culture of fear and control. Too many instructors want to be the stars and overhaul your swing. Don’t fall for it. Command your lesson. Keep it straightforward. Ask for simple answers that show clear results.

Our last visit to Scottsdale brought my family to the Fairmont Princess during the Christmas season. We just like to visit this time of year because everything is decorated for the holidays. While there, I was able to play at TPC Scottsdale, Grayhawk, and We Ko Pa–all stunning tracks for every handicap level.

For this trip, now four years removed, we wanted to experience two different types of Scottsdale resorts: The first two nights at Boulders Resort and Spa, about 30 minutes north of town, surrounded by (you guessed it) boulders and nature. For the second two nights, my wife wanted to be a bit closer to the city life so we picked the JW Marriott Camelback Inn, minutes from Old Town Scottsdale.

There are many differences between the two resorts, but both somehow maintained the vibe of being in the Valley.

BOULDERS RESORT AND SPA 

The Boulders Resort and Spa sprawls out across an enormous piece of property, which includes two award-winning, Jay Morrish-designed golf courses that both rank well as playable golf courses in the state. When you check in, they give you a map and a flashlight to help you navigate the grounds at night.  The rooms (or casitas) are villa-esque, complete with your own fireplace and wood to burn on cold nights. The place just smells like fresh air and chimineas.

The lodge itself is nestled beneath a small mountain with accessible hiking trails along both sides. Behind the main lobby sits a good-sized pool, which was heated when we visited and allowed for swimming in November. Temperatures this time of year are typically pretty chilly, especially for early morning golf, so to be able to swim in warm water was a nice treat.

The two courses are both on the property, making Boulders Resort a truly ‘never have to leave’ type of resort. There are also multiple restaurants on-site, including Bogey’s Bar near the pro shop and 18th greens for both courses. Boulders is home to about 400 golfing membership families but also remains open for public play as well. The members and public alternate courses each day, which apparently works great and keeps a high-season traffic light on both courses. I played the North Course but also walked the South to get a good feel for each.

View from clubhouse over 18 of South Course

Boulders Pro Shop

Number one tee- Boulders North

The North course tips out at 6,959 yards but can play as short as 4900 from the red tees. There are six tee box options in total, which helps on a desert course like this because between the frequently watered green grass come many different varieties of wasteland carries and sandy ravines. With options on tees and course length, many of the challenging shots can be added or taken out depending on skill level.

You can expect a lot of uneven lies at Boulders, as most of the fairways and playing surfaces undulate to blend right in with the surrounding mountains. Saguaro cacti are in every site line, but the predominant feature of both courses is the elephant-sized boulders on nearly every hole. Some appear to teter on their end, ready to roll down into the bunker where your ball is resting.

Of course, like most desert-style courses, errant shots are findable in the sandy soil, but not without risk of being pricked, poked, or bitten. My general rule is that if I can’t see it from the green grass, I’m better off not wandering too far out in search of what might be painful to find. Drop a ball and take my medicine. That proved to be true at Boulders as well. There are many thick areas just off the fairway where man should not be. And a better golfer than myself would only look in that direction to view the beauty of the Sonoran Desert.

Both courses do have a few splatters of water hazards here and there. Most folks I spoke to on the property noted that the South Course has a couple more breathtaking views and elevation changes than its counterpart North, but the North Course provides a wider array of shot-making options for the more serious golfer. I thought both courses were stunning to the eye, but it wouldn’t shock me if, had I played South, I found it a bit easier and more resort-style friendly.

Non-member tee times can be booked online or through the pro shop but if you are staying at the lodge, you’re more than likely going to get a better hotel rate to play. In November, which is almost peak season, mid-week greens fees range from around $100-$200 with dynamic pricing throughout the day. Both courses are incredibly walkable and a caddie or pushcart can be available upon request.

After my round, I took my son on a hike up the mountain above the lodge for some pretty stunning views of both courses. My wife escaped to the spa for a 90-minute hot stone massage, which was my way of saying thank you for another golf trip for the family. The least I could do. She said it was incredible and unlike any other massage she has ever had in her life. They even put hot stones between her toes, which I suppose feels good.

We wrapped up our stay at Boulders with a fantastic dinner at Palo Verde, located at the resort headquarters. We were able to sit outside under the stars with the help of a few closely placed heaters. With the golf, the restaurants, and the natural activities available, Boulders proved to be a wonderful spot to relax and get some swings in. If your partner is a fan of spa days and calm settings, this is the golf resort in Scottsdale to stay at. The food, drinks, and lodging are all upscale.  I would say it is a perfect couples’ getaway resort. We didn’t see any other kids so there may be better places to stay if you’re bringing the little ones along, though. With kids, I’d stay closer to town (see below) and head up to Boulders for a round of golf only.

Palo Verde dining room at Boulders

TROON NORTH

The next morning, I took an Uber just a few minutes away to the Troon North campus for a round at the Pinnacle Course. Troon North is home to two tracks, both designed by Tom Weiskopf and both immaculately maintained year round. The Pinnacle course is more links-style than its sister, the Monument Course, which is widely considered the signature course between the two.

The clubhouse is first class, with a well-stocked 2,200 square foot pro shop, and a legitimate locker room for public use. And the logo is fantastic.

Troon North offers a membership plan as well as public play, and daily fees are dynamicly priced. 

Pinnacle course plays over 7,000 yards from the back tees but provides seven different tee boxes allowing you to play the course as short as 4831 yards. Though more links style than Monument, the course still provides a very Sonoran desert feel and carries over thorny brush on nearly every hole.

Both courses were ranked in the “Top 10” best courses you can play in Arizona by Golfweek.

I thoroughly enjoyed my round at Troon North. The facility is about 35 minutes north of the Phoenix airport so it’s a bit closer to downtown Scottsdale than Boulders. It is also closely connected to the Four Seasons should you be looking to stay nearby.

The course felt pristine and special. You can tell the place pays attention to detail and takes great pride in the condition of the courses. The layout has some elevation changes so it may not be the easiest to walk. The routing never really brings you back to the clubhouse until the 18th hole, either, but there is a comfort station out there and beverage carts making the rounds.

The bunkering is fair and not very deep, but they are strategically placed right where you don’t want them to be. The par 71 has only one par 5 on the front nine but boasts a 609-yarder on the back that plays every bit as long as it reads. The par threes are scenic but lengthy as well, generally playing around 200 yards from the backs except for the short 140-yard 16th.

The fairways are bermuda grass and the greens are bent. Overseeding is done in the fall but the schedule is posted online to help avoid any unpleasant rounds. There are valley quail all over the course that walk in front of you on fairways and tee boxes like schools of fish.

The course is just so scenic and first-class. The mountains are in view the entire time and the course provides a wide array of options and shotmaking opportunities. I played early and alone and I genuinely enjoyed my time on the course. It was my favorite round of the trip.

The 18th green is huge and it blends into the practice green near the clubhouse, snaking around a giant rock to protect the practice green from shots gone long. It is a very unique site from both the clubhouse and the 18th hole but adds some character to the facility.

CAMELBACK INN RESORT AND GOLF 

The JW Marriott Camelback Inn is an incredible hotel. I am not really sure how else to describe it. Being there feels the way an in-city Scottsdale hotel is supposed to feel. You’re surrounded by Camelback mountain on one side and Mummy Mountain on the other. The adobe buildings feel like they have been there forever and yet are still perfectly maintained. There are sitting areas near fireplaces around every turn and the landscaping is quintessentially desert floral.

We heard from more than one person that the Camelback Inn is Mr. Marriott’s favorite hotel within his entire company and he spends one month there every year. That is saying something!

Our room was standard size but wonderfully located just a hundred yards or so away from the main lodge and restaurants. Between us was a green space with lawn activities for guests of all ages. There is a playground and putting green on site and several pools (some heated) for swimming year-round. And the views are just spectacular. To be only minutes away from Old Town while still being able to hike up multiple mountains of your choosing is one of the most special things about Scottsdale.

We ate breakfast, lunch, and dinner at Rita’s Cantina and Bar…simply because the menus change for each meal and the outside patio seating is so incredible. Hoppin’ Jacks at the pool is another dining option but the Lincoln Steakhouse and Bar is the upscale dinner spot…and the gem of the dining options.

The Camelback Golf Courses, Ambiente, and Padre, are not on site, but the resort provides you with a free shuttle service for your tee time. The ride is only about five minutes and they start at 7:00 am.

The clubhouse is large with a spacious golf shop. The Camelback logo, while a bit cartoony, is pretty fantastic in a 1960s Bob Hope Classic kind of way.

I played the Ambiente course, which I was told has a bit more character than the Padre. Ambiente goes straight out for 3 miles, following along a gulch on your right the whole way, and then turns around and comes right back to the clubhouse for the back nine. If you are walking, make sure you’re in it for an entire 18-hole round. There’s no stopping after nine if you are on foot and three miles away from the clubhouse.

These courses are more parkland than desert. That’s especially true of the Padre course. But even Ambiente, which translates to ‘environment,’ is not very ‘deserty’ in comparison to Troon North or Boulders. There are a lot more grassy rough areas off the fairway and very little cactus. The gulch, which is seen on nearly every hole, feels more native and marshy than anything I saw in my previous rounds. It’s a gorgeous course, but not what you imagine when you think of Scottsdale golf.

The course itself, with its unique straight-out, straight-back routing, lengthens out to 7,225 yards from the tips and 5,538 from the forward tees. The par 72 Jason Straka design is not an easy course. Many of the holes require precision tee shots and a bit of course knowledge doesn’t hurt as the driver is not always proper. The par threes play long, with the shortest being 185 from the back tees. The 8th hole can stretch back to 241 yards and then number 15 goes even longer to 245. Of course, you don’t have to hit back there unless you’re a glutton for punishment.

The bunkering is deep in certain areas, which you realize as early as the greenside on the first hole. Playing this course after the other desert layouts I have played made me wonder if this is the true ‘nature’ of the area and perhaps the other desert courses are a bit more…manufactured. Ambiente feels native. I think I enjoy the other desert style aesthetics of the other courses more, but from a pure golf perspective, Ambiente at Camelback is a real deal course.

SCOTTSDALE LIFE

The beauty of Scottsdale as a golf destination is that no matter which courses or resorts you decide to enjoy, you are still always within 30 minutes of a fantastic city center, with great shops and world-class restaurants. Old Town is only one little pocket of what Scottsdale has to offer, but because of the neat stores for our kiddo and walkability, we spent most of our time away from the resort here.

Like any great city, anyone who has visited will be able to give you a list of their favorite places to play, shop, and eat.  For us, we loved going to Popstroke, the Tiger Woods-designed miniature golf course, as well as Mavrix for bowling and laser tag. When you’ve got a five-year-old, you do what makes him happy too. We also went to Isabella’s Kitchen for lunch on one of our days, which overlooks the McDowell Mountains and Grayhawk Golf Course. The food is always delicious and it’s a really fun location for the kiddo to run around while mom and dad can have a margarita.

We went to The Montauk in Old Town for our only dinner outside of the resort and it did not disappoint. It’s a really neat atmosphere and the menu was a mix between The Hamptons and Southwest tastings. They had live music and friendly staff. It doesn’t get much better.

And if you find yourself out and about for breakfast, you need to stop in at the Daily Dose for some Cinamon Roll Pancakes or Breakfast Nachos. We made a quick stop here on our way to the airport and didn’t need to eat for the rest of the day!

Having been traveling for golf for some time now, people always ask my opinion on my favorite courses or favorite city to go to for a golf trip. My answer always starts with “It depends on who you are going with…”

If you are heading out for a golf trip with your family, I don’t think you can pick a better city than Scottsdale. The travel itself (airport, rental car, etc..) is always a breeze. The resort options (and spas) are plentiful and offer a variety of different setups for couples or kid-friendly atmospheres. And there are hundreds of golf courses to choose from. All the while, Scottsdale has one of the best restaurant and entertainment scenes in the United States.

I’m sure I will keep getting the question. But if you are thinking of a golf trip with the family, the answer is Scottsdale.

If you want help planning your next golf experience or just have any questions about some of mine, reach out to me on Twitter or Instagram and shoot me a message. And feel free to check out my other golf experience articles. I look forward to hearing from you!

As I grew up in the game, my father and I spent hours talking about golf and swing technique, from the grip to positions at impact to conceptual aspects of the game and swing. I’ve continued to study and have conversations with knowledgeable golf professionals and players throughout my life. But back to my father, one thing he made very clear to me early on is that there is a big difference between understanding, learning, and practice.

Understanding and learning are two very different aspects of getting better at this game. The understanding part is where you actually grasp the basic concepts of a functionally correct golf swing. This includes the fundamentals of a proper grip, to the geometry of sound setup up, and alignment to the actual role and movements of the various parts of your body from start to finish.

Only after understanding can you begin the learning process of incorporating those fundamentals and mechanical movements into your own golf swing. I was taught and continue to believe the best way to do that is to start by posing in the various positions of a sound golf swing, then graduating to slow motion movement to connect those poses – address to takeaway to mid-backswing to top of backswing to first move down, half-way down…through impact and into the follow-through.

Finally, the practice part of the equation is the continual process of ingraining those motions so that you can execute the golf swing with consistency.

The only sure way to make progress in your golf is through technique improvement, whether it is a full swing with the driver or the small swings you make around the greens. There are no accomplished players who simply practice the same wrong things over and over. Whether it is something as simple as a grip alteration or modification to your set up position, or as complex as a new move in the swing, any of these changes require first that you understand…then clearly learn the new stuff. Only after it is learned can you begin to practice it so that it becomes ingrained.

If you are trying to learn and perfect an improved path of your hands through impact, for example, the first step is to understand what it is you are trying to achieve. Only then can you learn it. Stop-action posing in the positions enables your muscles and mind to absorb your new objectives. Then, slow-motion swings allow your muscles to feel how to connect these new positions and begin to produce this new coordinated motion through them. As your body begins to get familiar with this new muscle activity, you can gradually speed up the moves with your attention focused on making sure that you are performing just as you learned.

As you get comfortable with the new muscle activity, you can begin making practice swings at half speed, then 3/4 speed, and finally full speed, always evaluating how well you are achieving your objectives of the new moves. This is the first stage of the practice process.

Only after you feel like you can repeat this new swing motion should you begin to put it into practice with a golf ball in the way. And even then, you should make your swings at half or ¾ speed so that you can concentrate on making the new swing – not hitting the ball.

The practice element of the process begins after the learning process is nearly complete. Practice allows you to ingrain this new learning so that it becomes a habit. To ensure your practice is most effective, make several practice swings for each ball you try to hit.

I hope all this makes sense. By separating understanding from the learning process, and that from the practice that makes it a habit — and getting them in the proper sequence — you can begin to make real improvements in your game.

TLDR: I am back to report that I may have found the ultimate breakthrough involving how golf shafts are manufactured. It will sound mind-boggling and counter-intuitive, but the new technology involves controlling a shaft’s variables of weight, flex (CPM), and torsional strength (torque) all independently of one another. As if this alone doesn’t sound far-fetched enough, it also purports to control the subjective aspect of how stiff the shaft feels without affecting the other variables.

To the best of my knowledge, I never knew any of these were possible, but seeing (and feeling) is believing, though I’m still reeling from my recent experience. Moreover, I dare predict that the sheer novelty of this discovery has the potential to redefine the golf shaft industry as we know it.

Also, the article is long. You’ve been warned.

In A League Of Their Own

Over the years, I have reported on several golf innovations and technologies that made golfers sit up and take notice. Of those finds, let me briefly recap two products that especially stood out before I unveil my most recent discovery further below.

Starting at number three, I present the now-famous Autoflex shaft by Dumina. Introduced in early 2020 during the COVID epidemic, the small Korean company claimed that their shafts didn’t use any flex designations and are to be selected solely based on a golfer’s swing speed. Against conventional wisdom, the company claimed that a super flexible, ultralight shaft can improve distance and accuracy for golfers of all swing speeds. The AF shaft, with its mysterious Korea Hidden Technology (KHT), sounded too good to be true, but more often than not, golfers who braved the steep price and the hot pink color agreed that the shaft seemed legitimate. Many also credit it with creating a whole new category of soft and hyper-flexible performance shafts.

Next in the number two spot is the groundbreaking FreeFlex shaft from SJ Golf Lab, also out of Korea. When the FF shafts surfaced in early 2023, I first thought they were a slightly improved version of the Autoflex. At weights and flex even softer than the AF, the shafts also improved distance and accuracy at a lower price point than their counterparts.

Upon delving further, FreeFlex Technology (FFT) was far more amazing than I could have ever imagined. Against the norm, the inventor of FFT claimed that a shaft’s weight, flex (CPM), and torque are NOT relative to each other and that each variable can be controlled separately. According to SJ Lab, a lightweight, flexible shaft with a strong torque was possible, and vice-versa. The incredulous claim went largely unnoticed at the time, but the folks at SJ Lab recently decided to prove their technology by introducing the ultimate unicorn of a shaft.

Aptly named ‘Hammer Throw’ the rubber-like shaft featured a conventional shaft’s weight of 62g yet measured only 140 CPM to be incredibly soft and flexible. To top it off, it also featured a strong 3.5 torque similar to an S-flex shaft, all unlikely numbers that have never been combined in a single shaft before. The Hammer Throw proved to be a wonder shaft for slower swingers, helping to increase club head speed, distance, and even accuracy.

Ultimately, SJ Lab redefined the concept of ‘shaft customization’ by proving that a shaft’s WT, CPM, and TQ can be controlled independently to any degree.

Featuring SJ Golf’s FFT technology, the Hammer Throw and FF38 also caught the attention of many WLD athletes with swing speeds over 150mph.

Mind-Bending Revelation

The AF and FF shafts are indeed quite amazing, but what I’m about to share with you may be an even bigger discovery than both of them combined.

It was a Thursday afternoon in October when I arrived at SJ Golf Lab. I had just finished a round of golf that morning and felt flush after having bested my buddies on a tough track. I was to cover the story of a new line of putter shafts (based on the Chaos Theory in physics, no less) and was looking forward to seeing if it could help my putting.

I was making small talk with Dr. Choi, the inventor & CEO of SJ Golf Lab, when a courier arrived to hand him a sealed envelope. Inside was a patent certificate for a new golf shaft manufacturing process, which was to be featured in SJ Lab’s latest MetaFlex series of shafts.

“Oh, that sounds interesting” I said politely. “Is it like FreeFlex technology?”

What came next was a barrage of information so contradictory and yet so transformative in its revelation that I forgot all about the putter shafts.

Entering The Realm Of The Senses

Carbon Bending Technology (CBT) is the latest brainchild of Dr. Choi, the inventor of FreeFlex shafts. As incredulous as his FFT may seem, his new CBT technology takes it even further by stating that a fourth variable, the shaft’s level of firmness, can also be controlled independently of the other variables.

“CBT technology involves bending or wrapping carbon in a certain way to control how stiff a shaft feels, independently of weight, flex, and torque.” – Dr. Seung-jin Choi, inventor of CBT Technology 

Take a moment to let that sink in. Not only is he saying that the objective values of WT, CPM, and TQ can be controlled in any manner desired, but he can also control the subjective aspect of how firm a
shaft feels.

If CBT technology is legitimately possible, the implications of his discovery are immense and may well change the way golf shafts are made. Needless to say, such a spectacular assertion begs the question, “How can such an improbable idea be possible?”

As I struggled to comprehend what I just heard, Dr. Choi handed me a shaft and asked me to try and bend it. Grabbing it at both ends, the shaft felt light and soft, and I was able to bend and flex it easily. I was then given another shaft and asked to do the same. The new shaft felt much firmer from the get-go, similar to what I’d expect from a typical S-flex shaft. When I said that the second shaft felt much stronger than the first, I was in for a rude awakening.

“They’re the same shafts” Dr. Choi said. “The only difference is that the second one was treated with the CBT process. Other than that, both are practically the same in CPM and torque.”

“What do you mean these are the same shafts? This one is definitely stiffer.” My eyebrow arched in puzzlement at such a blatant contradiction.

After all, I was holding both shafts in my hands, and no one in the world was going to convince me that these two had the same CPM and TQ measurements.

The skepticism in my voice must’ve been obvious as I was led to a measuring device. I wish I could’ve seen the look on my face at that exact moment when my eyes confirmed both shafts to have the same CPM and torque.

Two same-looking shafts measured similarly in CPM and torque, despite one feeling much stiffer.

Goosebumps broke out on my arms, and my brain felt numb. Stunned, I took turns grabbing each shaft by the ends and bent them over and over again. There was absolutely no doubt that one was stiffer than the other. It wasn’t even close. Yet, if the numbers don’t lie, how was I to reconcile the two empirical facts at odds with each other before my very eyes?

Seeing Is Believing… Or Is It?

After repeated measurements to ensure I wasn’t dyslexic, I regained enough sense to sit down with Dr. Choi to hear more about the sorcery of carbon bending.

ME: How does CBT differ from your earlier FFT technology?

CHOI: CBT came as a result of golfers loving our FreeFlex shafts with the FFT technology but wanting even more. The FFT allows us to control the weight, flex, and torque independently. We used this discovery to design a new breed of shafts that help all levels of golfers increase club head speed and distance. But some of the stronger, faster-speed golfers were eventually turned off from it, as they couldn’t get accustomed to the soft feel and flex. The fear of spraying the ball all over the course was just too much.

To solve this issue, I looked at many factors that led golfers to describe whether a shaft is soft or stiff. Similar to FFT, I soon discovered that a shaft’s stiffness is not relative to its CPM value. By reinforcing a shaft through a special process I call carbon-bending, it can be made to feel as stiff as I wish without changing the original CPM or torque.

ME: (blank stare)

CHOI: Did that answer the question?

ME: Uhh… no? What do you mean the CPM doesn’t change? If the shaft became stiffer, it means the CPM value must have increased, doesn’t it? How we perceive stiffness is subjective, so we measure the CPM value objectively with a machine. That way, we can compare the CPM values of different shafts to see which one is stiffer with the higher number.

CHOI: Normally yes, but like I said, how stiff the shaft feels does not have to correlate with the CPM. They are independently controllable. As I just showed you with the two shafts earlier, both measured at the same CPM and torque. It was only when I applied the CBT method to one of them that it became stiffer than before, as you have seen for yourself.

ME: Yeah, I’m still not sure how that is, feeling firm in my hands but the machine reading it as soft. Is this like the cat in Schrodinger’s box, where the cat is both alive and dead at the same time? This shaft is also both soft and firm simultaneously?

CHOI: Not quite. But how about this? What if the CPM measurement we currently use to gauge and compare stiffness between shafts is not the only method? What if there were other ways that we haven’t considered to control the feeling of firmness?

ME: So you’re saying you discovered a new way to objectively measure how we feel or perceive stiffness?

CHOI: I think it’s better to say that I realized that a shaft’s CPM and stiffness can be independent of each other, whereas before, we thought they were directly relative. It led to look for other ways to make the shaft firmer, which is what I did. In the process, it also made me think, what else are we missing? Maybe we’ve been limiting ourselves in believing there’s nothing new left to discover.

Shaft Manufacturing 101

According to Dr. Choi, the method of manufacturing carbon shafts has remained largely unchanged since 1979, when Taylormade first introduced the first graphite shaft that offered many advantages over conventional steel shafts. Since then, various new materials and technologies have made the shafts lighter and stronger, but the basic shaft-making process remains the same.

The making of a modern golf shaft consists of wrapping layers of prepreg (treated carbon fiber) sheets around a steel shaft (mandrel). As more layers are applied, the shaft becomes progressively thicker and heavier (WT), which makes the flex (CPM) stiffer and increases the torsional (TQ)
strength.

The characteristics of a shaft depend on the amount of material and how each layer is oriented on the mandrel. How this is done varies among OEMs.

The current method and its proportional relationship between WT, CPM, and TQ is widely accepted. However, it also presents a big challenge for shaft-makers, whose main goal is to make shafts that improve distance with more accuracy. This is because generating more club speed for more distance necessitates a light and flexible shaft; while improving shot accuracy requires the shaft to be firm in both flex and torsional strength.

To balance the trade-off as best they could, OEMs have continually researched new materials and higher-quality carbon, along with their own, often secret, ways of weaving and arranging the carbon prepreg. A good example to illustrate shaft improvement in this manner is the lighter 50-gram range of X-flex shafts, which were a rarity only a few years ago.

At least for now, 5X shafts seem to be the pinnacle of conventional shafts that can be made with the existing process.

Shaft Manufacturing 2.0

In physics, Force equals Mass multiplied by Acceleration (F=MA). The same can be applied to golf at impact, but since a golf club is designed to be in motion, its dynamic energy is calculated as Impulse=MAT, where T is the time the ball stays in contact with the club face.

Dr. Choi explained that increasing any of the three factors would transfer more energy to the ball (I).

In other words, by making the club head heavier (M), faster (A), and getting the ball to remain in contact with the clubface longer (T), the distance will increase as a result.

Now that we can get faster club head speed (FF shafts), how can the shaft be made to feel stiff while retaining a longer distance? The solution was surprisingly simple, as most discoveries tend to be at first.

“Imagine wearing a pair of skin-tight nylon stockings,” Dr. Choi said. “It’s tight, but you can still move and bend your knees easily.” Truth be told, I’d never worn stockings before, but I nodded to see where it would lead.

“If you were to put on one more, your legs will feel stiff, and with yet another, it’ll now be very difficult to even bend your knees,” he was building up towards a big reveal. “But no matter how stiff your legs now feel with the layers of stockings, you can still rotate them.” Come again?

“When you try to sit down, the legs will stick straight out like they’re in a cast, right? But you’d still be able to twist or rotate your leg [left and right] because the stockings are not exerting force in that direction.”

Dazed at the anticlimactic turn, I tried to recall the last time I had a cast but he plowed on. “The original characteristics of your legs don’t change because of the stockings. They’re still your legs, which are bendy and flexible.”

I may have missed a whole lot there, but loosely translated, CBT technology is like adding tight pairs of stockings to make a shaft feel firmer, but won’t change what the original shaft was in terms of
torque or CPM.

Helical Carbon Armour

Carbon bending involves a new step in the shaft manufacturing process, where a thin strip of carbon is helically wrapped tightly around the shaft to increase stiffness. This new sheath of armor will firm up the feel of the shaft but will not affect the CPM or torque. In addition, Dr. Choi’s in-depth research further showed that the width of the strip band and the spacing between the helical spirals all played a part in changing the characteristics of the shaft in minute ways.

Each shaft has been treated with CBT and using different carbon weave, band width, materials and alignment to display a unique characteristics that can be tailored to a golfer’s swing

The truly mind-blowing prospect of CBT, however, is its ability to create an endless number of unique shafts with specific performance characteristics. For example, the number of new shaft possibilities can reach tens or even hundreds of thousands, depending on various factors, including but not limited to the width and thickness of the band, the spacing and orientation of the helical spiral, the weave pattern of the band fabric, and each of the different materials that all of these factors can be applied to.

“Can you imagine a PGA tour pro being able to dial in a golf shaft to squeeze 99.9% of the performance potential from their favorite shaft, without giving up anything they prefer in WT, CPM, TQ, and now FEEL?” – SJ Golf Lab 2023 

If It Looks And Barks Like A Dog?

Several days later, I returned to SJ Lab to test the new MetaFlex CBT shafts. The lineup consisted of three driver shafts of 5H, 6H, 6.5M, and iron ix90 shafts (H for high kick, M for mid-kick). Again, the MF series is designed for faster-speed golfers who swing at least 100mph to well over 120mph. I purposely asked not to see the shaft specs beforehand, as I wanted to remain neutral in determining how the new shafts felt and performed.

Waggling the 5H shaft first, it felt similar in weight and flex to a typical R-shaft. I usually average a smooth swing of about 95 mph with my FF38, but the 5H shaft instinctively made me try to swing harder to compensate for the firmer feel. The good drives launched high and carried as far, with spin between 1900~2000 rpm. As I warmed up, I was hitting it quite well, despite swinging a bit harder than usual.

I had grown accustomed to swinging smoothly and in tempo with FF shafts, so it felt good to swing hard again and not worry about the head catching up. The overall distance was comparable with my own driver at 240~250 yards, so I guessed the 5H specs to be about 220 CPM and close to 4.0 torque. On the downswing, the shaft reminded me of the many 5S shafts I had been using before being turned onto softer shafts. I imagined I could play it well, but struggle to keep it straight on the back nine when I gradually get tired.

Next, the 6H shaft felt like a conventional 5S on the waggle, but much stiffer like a 5X shaft on the actual downswing. I guessed it to be about 230~240 CPM and 3.5 in torque, as I was only able to turn the club head over about one-third of the time. I got a couple out to 240 yards but the rest of the shots varied from a fade bordering on a slice interspersed with low pulls. I felt the shaft demanded more speed for it to show its potential, and my slower speed wasn’t making it sing as it should.

Lastly, the MetaFlex 6.5M told me right away that it was out of my league. The waggle reminded me of a Ventus or a Tensei shaft, and the actual swing was even stiffer and closer to a 6X shaft. As expected, my shots were mostly pushed dead right, as I couldn’t effectively load the shaft with speed.

When I tried to force the head to turn over, I’d overcompensate to flip the wrist and pull it low left. The few that managed to land on the fairway barely traveled 210 yards with a noticeable decrease in ball speed. I can usually muster enough muscle to make a typical stiff shaft work over nine holes at least, but the 6.5M felt like an iron rod.

Overall, MF shafts’ waggles felt similar to conventional aftermarket shafts and felt even firmer during the actual swing.

I was now ready to see the actual spec measurements of the three shafts.

I could never have imagined such numbers corresponding to the firmness I experienced with MetaFlex shafts.

“There’s no way these numbers are the actual specs,” I protested. “These are softer than my FF38, so how…?” Hearing my voice hit a high pitch, I quickly closed my mouth. I already knew to expect something different, but this? Trying to reconcile the stiffness with such low numbers was just as difficult as it was the first time I encountered this phenomenon.

For lack of a better comparison, imagine picking up a cute kitten to hear it purr, only to be shocked at hearing it bark like a big angry pitbull with its tail stepped on. Does this mean I can no longer use phrases like “seeing is believing,” What will happen to “if it looks like a dog and barks like a dog?”

More importantly, what does this mean for the future of golf shafts?

Implications For The Future

Deep down, I believe every golfer wants to increase their driver distance. It doesn’t matter if you average 150 yards or 300 yards. As golfers, the need to hit it farther is in our DNA.

Since discovering that longer, easier distance (and accuracy to boot) is possible with the advent of AF shafts, I’ve never looked back. When FreeFlex shafts debuted earlier this year, I switched all my shafts throughout the bag and couldn’t be happier. I’ve received dozens of similar emails from golfers who read about my experiences and took the plunge, mostly to their pleasant surprise.

As amazing as the shafts are, some scoffed at the absence of such shafts on professional tours. If they’re so good, why aren’t they used more? After all, a distance gain of 10 yards on drives can mean as much as 5-10 percent closer to the pin on approach shots for shorter putts, which can translate to millions of dollars in winnings. In fact, dozens of pros from all major tours have tried them, some openly and some in secret.

As a recreational golfer, I can live with an occasional OB if it means consistently out-driving my friends. But an elite tour pro for whom a single stroke may be worth millions? Not a chance. Even the best can become a psychological wreck if the shaft flexed more than Arnold Schwarzenegger in his prime. Especially on the back nine of a major on Sunday afternoon.

But for the sake of argument, let’s suppose there exists a shaft that truly offers longer distance and accuracy of the soft FF shaft with the reassuring feel and playability of a stiff shaft. Better yet, what if your favorite shaft can be readjusted to fit all of your needs for maximum performance output and feel preferences? I’d bet my last Pro V1s that elite professional golfers will stop at nothing to have them tested and optimized to benefit each of their own swing metrics and performance. It’s in their DNA.

Dr. Choi also mentioned that he is nearing completion of his state-of-the-art swing and shaft diagnostic system, which can prescribe precisely the type of shaft (weight, flex, torque, feel, kick, kitchen sink?) needed for a player. And he builds it to that specification. Customization to the fullest.

As the company’s name implies, that is the ultimate goal of SJ Golf Lab and Dr. Choi, who hopes his shafts will come as a “Special Joy” for each and every golfer.

All in all, CBT certainly felt to me like the next evolutionary step in golf shaft technology.

So, what do you think? Can we trust the accuracy of the statements made by SJ Golf Lab? I would love to hear from other golfers and knowledgeable shaftoids in the industry, and what it can mean going forward.