The PGA TOUR heads to historic Pebble Beach this week to play the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

The tournament will be much different this season than what fans are used to, with plenty of welcome changes to the event. The 2024 edition of the tournament will be a “Signature Event” which means Pebble Beach will finally get the star-studded field it deserves and a prize pool of $20 million, with $3.6 million going to the winner as well as 700 FedExCup points. 

This should be one of the most exciting events of the season, as we will finally get to see many of the best players in the world play at one of the world’s most iconic golf courses over the weekend.

As Johnny Miller once said, “They say it’s the greatest meeting of land and sea in the world. This course was heaven designed”.

The event has previously utilized three courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club, but with the smaller field this year, we will now only see Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill Golf Course. Monterey Peninsula was the easiest of the three courses, so it’s removal should make scoring more difficult overall. It will be a no-cut event, with each golfer playing one round at Spyglass Hill and three at Pebble Beach. The Pro-Am portion of the event will only take place Thursday and Friday. 

The field this week is made up of 70 players including the top 50 from last year’s FedExCup standings, the top 10 available and not otherwise exempt from current FedExCup standings (Aon Next 10), and the top five available and not otherwise exempt FedExCup points earners from the swings leading up to each Signature Event (Aon Swing 5). Adam Scott, Webb Simpson, Maverick McNealy and Peter Malnati have also received sponsor’s exemptions. 

Pebble Beach Golf Links is a par-72 measuring 6,828 yards and featuring Poa Annua greens. Spyglass Hill is a par-72 measuring 7,035 yards, and Monterey Peninsula is a par-71 measuring 6,958 yards.

Past Winners at The Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am

• 2023: Justin Rose (-18)
• 2022: Tom Hoge (-19)
• 2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
• 2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
• 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
• 2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
• 2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
• 2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17)
• 2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22)

Going forward, I’ll be using the brand-new Bet The Number data engine to develop my custom model. All statistics listed come directly from the PGA Tour. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATT for $5 off the Monthly and $50 off the Annual Subscription. 

Strokes Gained: Approach

Unsurprisingly, approach grades out as the most important statistic for Pebble Beach.

On a shorter course, approaches to the green are understandably more indicative of success than smashing it off of the tee. With very small greens, Pebble Beach is undoubtedly a second-shot golf course.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in Past 24 Rounds (per round):

1. Mark Hubbard (+.91)
2. Taylor Montgomery (+.90)
3. Xander Schauffele (+.84)
4. Chris Kirk (+.84)
5. Scottie Scheffler (+.77)

SG: Around the Green

With extremely small greens, Pebble Beach will be suited for players who are good around the green after they inevitably have to scramble for par. 

SG: ARG in Past 24 Rounds (per round):

1. J.J. Spaun (+.61)
2. Russell Henley (+.57)
3. Sahith Theegala (+.51)
4. Beau Hossler (+.45)
5. Jordan Spieth (+.39)

Strokes Gained: Putting (West Coast POA)

With the course being so short, one of its main defenses is its fast Poa Annua greens. Strokes Gained: Putting has historically been extremely important here, as evidenced by former winners (Spieth, Mickelson, Snedeker).

SG: Putting (West Coast POA) Last 24 Rounds (per round):

1. Denny McCarthy (+2.2)
2. Max Homa (+1.9)
3. Peter Malnati (+1.4)
4. S.H. Kim (+1.3)
5. Harris English (+1.1)

Course History

Pebble Beach has historically been a specialist’s course.  Every winner of this event since 2006 has a top-21 finish in a previous appearance. 

Total Strokes Gained (Pebble Beach): Gained per Round in Past 24 Rounds

1. Maverick McNealy (+2.6)
2. Taylor Moore (+2.1)
3. Jordan Spieth (+1.7)
4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.5)
5. Jason Day (+1.4)

Approach 125-150

Pebble Beach is extremely short, and players will be faced with plenty of wedge shots into the course’s tiny greens. 

Approach 125-150 past 24 rounds (per round):

1. Taylor Montgomery (14.9)
2. Mark Hubbard (15.8)
3. Beau Hossler (16.1)
4. Max Homa (16.6)
5. Cameron Young (16.7)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (28%), Approach 125-150 (18%), SG: Putting West Coast Poa (18%), Course History (18%) and ARG (18%).

1. Max Homa (+2000)
2. Taylor Montgomery (+10000)
3. J.T. Poston (+6600)
4. Beau Hossler (+8000)
5. Xander Schauffele (+1800)
6. Scottie Scheffler (+850)
7. Brendon Todd (+8000)
8. Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
9. Collin Morikawa (+2200)
10. Alex Noren (+7500)

2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Cantlay hasn’t been playing his best golf to begin the 2024 season, which is why we are getting a palatable number on the 31-year-old. Cantlay absolutely loves Pebble Beach and hasn’t finished worse than 21st in his last four trips to the course. He finished in a tie for 3rd in 2021 and a tie for 2nd in 2022. In 2021, Cantlay tied a course record (62) at Pebble Beach, matching David Duval’s round in 1997. He was born in Long Beach, California and attended UCLA, which has clearly translated to his performance in the state throughout his career.

Cantlay has been struggling this year but has gotten progressively better in each start in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach, and the putter has been solid in the early part of the season. It hasn’t been pretty, but I believe after shaking the rust off Cantlay will find himself in contention at a golf course he’s very comfortable at.

Jordan Spieth +2000 (BetRivers)

With the exception of Augusta National, there might not be a course on Tour more suited to the strengths of Jordan Spieth.

He struggled last year, but prior to that he was in contention in just about every start at Pebble Beach. He finished 2nd in 2022, 3rd in 2021 and tied for 9th in 2021. He also won the event in 2017 and had two additional top ten finishes in 2014 and 2015.

Spieth is playing well to begin his 2024 campaign, finishing 3rd in his only start at The Sentry while gaining strokes on the field in all significant categories. With LIV Golf kicking off its season this week, the Tour would like nothing more than one of its most recognizable stars in contention at one of the world’s most iconic courses over the weekend.

Byeong Hun An +6600 (BetRivers)

In his two starts in 2024, Byeong Hun An has finished 4th at the Sentry and lost in a playoff at the Sony Open. As frustrating as it was to be on the losing side of his short playoff miss, it’s undeniable that An is currently playing the best golf of his career. 

In his start at the Sony, the South Korean gained 8.3 strokes from tee to green and despite the short miss, exhibited the ability to putt on West Coast POA, gaining 3.4 strokes putting.

An played in the event last year and finished 37th. However, he played in the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach and finished in a tie for 16th, showing he can compete at the course when conditions are tough.

The jury is still out on whether or not An can hit a clutch putt when it matters most, but he’s playing too well to ignore right now.

Beau Hossler +7000 (FanDuel)

Beau Hossler loves Pebble Beach. The 27-year-old grew up in Rancho Santa Margarita, California, which is only a few hours away from Pebble Beach.

In 2022, Hossler finished in solo third place at last year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and gained 4.1 strokes putting in two rounds at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Last year, he finished 11th. While he struggles at times to keep up with the best players in the world at longer tracks, he can catch a hot putter in this event. 

Hossler has had a strong start to his season, finishing 6th at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. The once “can’t miss” prospect has a chance this week to achieve a career defining win at a course that suits him perfectly.

Adam Scott +8000 (FanDuel)

Adam Scott is making his PGA Tour debut this week, but he’s quietly been getting reps throughout the early part of 2024. A few weeks ago, the Australian played in the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and finished in a tie for 7th place. He also played three other times in the fall and finished in a tie for 7th (Bermuda), 6th (Australian PGA), and a tie for 4th (Australian Open).

With Monterey Peninsula out of the mix and cold/rainy weather incoming, I anticipate the scores to be relatively high over the weekend. That should favor Scott and his dependable ball striking. In the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, Scott finished in a tie for 7th place. With difficult conditions and a strong field, the event might play similar to that Pebble Beach rather than the Pro-Am setup. The 41-year-old has played well in California in the past and has a win at Riviera and a runner-up at Torrey Pines.

At long odds, Scott is worth a shot this week.

Patrick Rodgers +150000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Rodgers hasn’t played well at Pebble Beach over the last four tries, but he did finish in a tie for 8th at the 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

In his three starts this season, Rodgers has finished 14th (Sentry), 24th (Sony), and a tie for 9th (Farmers Insurance Open). Last week at Torrey Pines, the former Stanford Cardinal gained 2.5 strokes off the tee and 1.1 on approach.

Pebble Beach may not be an ideal fit for Rodgers on paper, but he’s showing signs of consistency from the 31-year-old that we’ve been waiting to see for many years. His ability to putt on West Coast POA and strong current form makes him worth the chance at triple-digit odds.