The first full-field event of the 2023 golf season is upon us as the PGA Tour stays in Hawaii to play the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. The short par 70 (7,054) sets up well for accurate players off the tee who can dial it in with their irons and catch a hot putter for the week.

Since 2010, the winners at Waialae have gained 48.6% of their strokes against the field putting, which is the highest of any course on TOUR. In the past five editions of the tournament, there have been nine first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the nine, four have come from the morning wave, and five have come from the afternoon wave. It appears there is no real advantage to either starting time historically but that may be impacted this year as a result of the weather.

As of Tuesday, the wind looks as if it may be a factor during round one. The early starters should see winds 12 MPH with gusts up to 17 MPH. The afternoon starters will have the more difficult draw. Winds will be around 20 MPH with gusts up to 28 MPH. For this reason, I’d favor AM starters but wouldn’t rule out the PM wave completely.

Sony Open First-Round-Leader Selections

Billy Horschel +8000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:20 a.m. Local Time

Last week, we saw veteran Chris Kirk benefit from having some time off. I feel the same may apply to Billy Horschel.

Horschel ended 2023 summer strong, finishing 13th at the 3M Open and 4th at the Wyndham Championship. He then went over to the DP World Tour and finished in the top 20 in three of his four starts, including a T14 at the Alfred Dunhill Links. The busy schedule caught up with the 37-year-old, and he missed the cut at the RSM Classic.

If Billy is recharged, Waialae should be a good course for him to perform well at. He finished 7th here in 2021, posting four rounds of 66 or better (65, 66, 66, 65). Horschel should enter 2024 with a chip on his shoulder.

Justin Suh +8000 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 1 p.m Local Time

Last season, Justin Suh seemed to have a habit of starting quickly out of the gates and fizzle over the weekend. Therefore, to start 2024, I’ll be looking to target him in the first-round-leader market rather than the outright market.

The numbers would indicate that Suh being a fast starter is indeed the case. In his past 24 rounds, the USC product ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in round one. A short, scoreable course should suit Suh well this week.

Taiga Semikawa +10000 (Caesars)

First-Round Tee Time: 9 a.m Local Time

Taiga Semikawa has been scorching hot of late, finishing in the top ten of four of his past five starts on the Japan Tour, inlcuding a dominant victory in his most recent start. The 23-year-old is busting at the seams with talent, and I believe will eventually become a factor on the PGA Tour. Waialae should provide a pretty comfortable layout for the young Japanese star.

Did I mention he was named after Tiger Woods?

Jhonnatan Vegas +12500 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:30 a.m Local Time

I am absolutely ecstatic to have Jhonnatan Vegas back on the PGA Tour after an injury hiatus, as he will be featured in my first-round-leader column regularly in 2024.

After eight months off, the Venezuelan played twice this fall on the DP World Tour and looked to have quickly returned to form. After a missed cut to shake off the rust in his first start, he finished 17th at the ISPS Handa Australian Open.

Vegas has historically been a fast starter. In his past 50 rounds, the 39-year-old ranks 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in round one.

Harry Hall +14000 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 1:10 p.m Local Time

Harry Hall finished 28th in his debut at the Sony Open last season, posting four rounds in the 60’s including an opening round 66. The Englishman has been excellent on resort courses and also finished 3rd (and really should have won) the Charles Schwab at Colonial which shares strong leaderboard correlation with Waialae.

I tend to favor good putters for first-round leader bets and Hall ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting in the first round in his past 24 rounds.

Nico Echavarria +14000 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:10 a.m Local Time

Nico Echavarria has his specialty courses on Tour, and there’s plenty of reason to believe that Waialae could be one of them. He finished 12th at the course last year and his season started strong with a 25th place finish at The Sentry last week in a loaded field.

Last season, the Colombian won the Puerto Rico Open while missing four straight cuts prior to the win and missing two cuts immediately after demonstrating his love for the coast. As Ernest Hemingway once said, “A man is never lost at sea”.

Joel Dahmen +15000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:40 a.m Local Time

Joel Dahmen had a strong fall, finishing 13th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and 7th at the Shriners Children’s Open, gaining 4.6 strokes on approach at TPC Summerlin, which is the most he’d gained since November of 2022.

Dahmen has had some solid starts at Waialae, finishing 22nd at the course in 2019 and 12th in 2020, closing with a 4th round 66.

The fan-favorite will be looking to hit the ground running it 2024.