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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s The Sentry betting preview: Spieth primed for fast start to 2024

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The PGA Tour makes it return this week as we head to the Kapalua Plantation Course in Maui to play the Sentry. The course is a unique par 73 measuring 7,515 yards.

The Tournament of Champions is a no-cut event and usually plays pretty easy. Six of the past seven winners have finished with a score of -22 or better, and the 2022 champion, Cameron Smith, set the tournament record by finishing at -34. Jon Rahm went low in 2023 as well, finishing at -27. Wide fairways and soft greens make the event scoreable, but coastal wind and elevation changes can occasionally make some shots difficult.

The field will feature 59 of the world’s top golfers including Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Tony Finau and Jordan Spieth. The new qualification rules allow for anyone in the top 50 in the final FedEx Cup points last season to take part in the event as well as winners from last season. 

Past Winners at The Sentry

  • 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
  • 2021: Harris English (-25)
  • 2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
  • 2018: Dustin Johnson (-24)
  • 2017: Justin Thomas (-22)
  • 2016: Jordan Spieth (-30)
  • 2015: Patrick Reed (-21)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Kapalua’s Plantation Course to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

With Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentages extremely high at Kapalua (78.9%), just getting on the putting surface won’t cut it. In a very low-scoring event, golfers will need to have their irons and wedges dialed in to provide scoring opportunities.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+32.3
  2. Lucas Glover (+29.5) 
  3. Hideki Matsuyama (+23.2) 
  4. J.T. Poston (+22.8) 
  5. Xander Schauffele (+21.9)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

With fairways being wide and easy to hit, bombers should be able to let it rip off the tee this week. Golfers with a strong off-the-tee game should end up with a wedge in their hand for their approach shot which will give them an advantage on the shorter hitters. 

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:

  1. Ludvig Aberg (+24.7)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+24.2)
  3. Viktor Hovland (+21.6)
  4. Byeong Hun An (+18.8)
  5. Corey Conners (+17.8)

Proximity 100-125 Yards

With a good deal of short par 4s on the course and easy-to-hit fairways, golfers will have wedges in their hands looking to attack pins. Historically, wedge play has been a major factor in determining a winner in Maui, and I expect that to continue in the 2024 edition.

Proximity 100-125 in past 24 rounds:

  1. Hideki Matsuyama (+13.0)
  2. Camilo Villegas (+12.4) 
  3. Brendon Todd (+10.7)
  4. Lucas Glover (+7.8)
  5. Russell Henley (+7.7)

Strokes Gained: Par 5

Taking advantage of all of the par 5s will be crucial this week. Historically, par-5 scoring has been more indicative of the winner at this tournament than par-3 or par-4 scoring. The player who posts the lowest cumulative score on the par-5 holes will put themselves in a good position to win come Sunday.

Total Strokes Gained: Par 5 in Past 24 rounds

  1. Cameron Young (+13.6)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+11.8)
  3. Erik Van Rooyen (+11.1)
  4. Lee Hodges (+11.0)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+10.3) 

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) (Velcro)

The Bermudagrass greens at Kapalua are notoriously slow. In a low-scoring event, golfers will need to make a lot of putts to win, and those who prefer putting on slow Bermuda should have the advantage. There have been a good deal of elite putters (Smith, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth) who have had great success at Kapalua in the past.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Andrew Putnam (+1.5)
  2. Jordan Spieth (+0.8)
  3. Patrick Cantlay (+0.6)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+0.5)
  5. J.T.  Poston (+0.4)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%) SG: OTT (20%); SG: Par 5 (20%); Prox 100-125 (15%); and SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) (Velcro) (15%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
  2. Collin Morikawa (+2800)
  3. Xander Schauffele (+1800)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
  5. Russell Henley (+2000)
  6. Viktor Hovland (+1200)
  7. Lucas Glover (+2000)
  8. Adam Svensson (+6000)
  9. Tom Kim (+2000)
  10. J.T. Poston (+1200)

2024 Sentry Tournament of Champions Picks

Jordan Spieth +2800 (BetRivers):

Jordan Spieth was winless in 2023 but continued to play solid golf, finishing 27th in the FedEx Cup standings. The three-time major champion played in Tiger Woods’ Hero World Challenge and showed that he’s been working on his game in the off-season. Spieth finished 6th in the event and shot four rounds under par.

Jordan has had success at Kapalua, winning the tournament in 2016 and also has a 2nd (2014), 3rd (2017) and 9th (2018). In his past 24 rounds at the course, Spieth ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total amongst those playing in the event.

The PGA Tour could certainly benefit from a star player like Jordan Spieth starting off 2024 hot, and I believe he has a chance to get an early win at The Sentry.

Rickie Fowler +3500 (DraftKings):

Rickie Fowler is coming off his best season in a long while and his work with Butch Harmon has clearly paid dividends. The 35-year-old broke through for a victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and had a few additional close calls, including a fantastic performance at the U.S. Open where he finished runner-up to Wyndham Clark.

Fowler has been incredibly consistent over the course of his career at Kapalua. He’s played the event four times since 2013, and boasts finishes of 6th (2013), 5th (2016), 4th (2018) and 5th (2020). It appears that when Rickie is playing well, he finishes near the top of the Sentry.

Rickie certainly has the type of game that should thrive at Kapalua. He is solid with his wedges (20th in the field) and putts well on slow Bermudagrass greens (9th in the field). The PGA Tour season could get off to a flying start with one of the most popular players on Tour winning the first signature event of the season.

Jason Day +5000 (BetRivers):

Jason Day had a resurgent 2023, winning for the first time in five years at the AT&T Byron Nelson.  and if his fall has been any indication, he has no plans on slowing down in 2024. He missed a few cuts after the win, but still managed a runner-up finish at the Open Championship.

Day’s strong season continued into the fall. The Australian and his partner Lydia Ko won the Grant Thornton Invitational, which was closely contested and likely tested his nerves a bit down the stretch. Day then finished 11th at the Hero World Challenge but was in contention going into Sunday prior to a disappointing 74 in the final round.

Day hasn’t played at Kapalua since 2019, but prior to that, he had some encouraging results at the course. He finished 3rd in 2015 and 10th in 2016. Additionally, Australians have won six times in the past.

I don’t typically love backing Day in events where the winner needs to go extremely low, but the 36-year-old managed to reach -23 in his win in Texas last season. A Jason Day who’s shown signs of solid recent form at 50-1 in a 59-man field is too much value to pass up to start the season.

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19th Hole

Paulina Gretzky opens up on receiving death threats following DJ’s move to LIV Golf

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During season two of “Full Swing” on Netflix, the docuseries sat down with Paulina Gretzky, who’s married to Dustin Johnson.

While speaking to the show, Gretzky revealed that her family has received death threats over Dustin’s move to LIV Golf.

“There were people sending death threats and awful, awful, awful things. People were aggressive, that’s for sure, but that’s when I shut it down for a little bit and I was like ’I don’t need to look at this, everyone has an opinion on it and fine.’

“We have a little bit more time together now since things have changed a little, whereas before it was ‘go go go.’ We have more control now of how we do things.

“The old life we had; it was ‘I had to take a back seat’ but now it feels like we’re in the front of the plane together flying. It was the right move.”

Since his move, DJ has been adamant that the decision was what is in the best interest for him and his family. He has wins in each of his three LIV seasons, amassing 5 victories in total and won $35 million alone in his first season on LIV.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Hong Kong betting preview: Trio of major champs primed for big week

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LIV Golf is set to begin its fourth event of the season at Hong Kong Golf Club in Hong Kong, China. This marks the first time that LIV Golf will travel to China for an event.

Hong Kong Golf Club is a par 70 measuring 6,710 yards. LIV will be using the “Fanling Course” for the event.

While speaking with Asian Tour player Travis Smyth, he gave me a rundown on what it takes to be successful at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“Hong Kong golf club, it’s pretty old school, like super short and tight. And I, I don’t think it falls into like a bomber’s hand. I think you’ll see a lot of guys hitting it to roughly the same spots on the majority of the holes. There’s a few holes where Bryson will be able to unleash a few but not many. When I played here, I hit Hybrid on Par 4’s off the tee maybe like seven times.”

Travis also said that the tight fairways and penal potential misses will keep the bombers at bay.

“It’s just that sort of course you’re hitting it like anywhere from 220 to 240 off the tee. And then from there you have a range of holes where it’s like kind of some sort of wedge or nine. It’s not very long.”

Around the green game will also be tremendously important at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“The greens are small as well and it’s usually quite hard to get up and down if you miss the greens. Someone like Cameron Smith I could see doing really well there. He played well in the international series. but just someone that’s, you know, pretty dolled in with their, their scoring clubs, he’s probably going to do well there.”

Players dialed in with their game from tee to green with control over the golf ball should fare extremely well.

“You can’t really scramble from the trees either. So, you really just have to. I’d, yeah, just whoever’s the best ball striker that week, you can’t really strap it around and fake it around there. You got to hit it straight. The tree lines are dead, there’s some hazards and stuff. It’s a short, tight quirky course, not what any of these guys are probably used to.”

Despite it being short, don’t be surprised if it gives players some real trouble.

“It should be fun viewing because there’ll be a lot of opportunities. They’ll feel like they can go low around there because it’s short but, you know, you make a few bogeys, and you get quite frustrated, and you start pushing off the tee and find some trouble and stuff. It can eat you up as well.”

Smyth finished 2nd at Hong Kong Golf Club to qualify for the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

Past Winners at Hong Kong Golf Club

  • 2023: Ben Campbell (-19)
  • 2022: Wade Ormsby (-17)
  • 2018: Aaron Rai (-17)
  • 2017: Wade Ormsby (-11)
  • 2016: Sam Brazel (-13)
  • 2015: Justin Rose (-19)
  • 2014: Scott Hend (-13)
  • 2013: Miguel Angel Jiminez (-12)

The top of the board once again will be a major threat this week. Jon Rahm is still in search of his first win on LIV and has been knocking at the door in each of his first three starts. Brooks Koepka hasn’t yet contended but is playing steady golf and has yet to shoot a round outside of the 60’s this season. Joaquin Niemann is the hottest player on the planet and has shown no signs of slowing down.

However, on a golf course that can neutralize the big hitters, this is an event that seems a bit more up for grabs than we’ve seen in the first three LIV events.

LIV Golf Stats YTD

 

2024 LIV Hong Kong Picks

Cameron Smith +2000 (Bet365, BetRivers)

It’s been a slow start for Cam Smith this season. In his three starts on LIV, he’s finished T8, T15, T41 and has yet to look like the Cam that is one of the best players in the world. Hong Kong Golf Club should be the perfect course fit to get the former Open Champion out of his slump.

Hong Kong Golf Club is tight off the tee, and many players won’t be able to hit driver. That will neutralize some of the best drivers of the golf ball in the field and propel players like Cam, who are almost unbeatable from fairway to green. Cam’s driver has been a weakness throughout his career, and it’s been especially pronounced this season. He’s tied for 51st in fairways hit thus far on the season. Taking driver out of his hand this week could be exactly what he needs to get on track.

Despite the poor tee balls, Smith still ranks 1st in putting and 5th in birdies made. He’s also a great scrambler, and with small greens at the course, having to get up and down is inevitable. If he can play from the fairway this week, he should have a major advantage in the other facets of the game.

Louis Oosthuizen +2000 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen should be an absolutely perfect fit for Hong Kong Golf Club. The South African has been remarkably consistent over the past few months dating back to the fall, where he won two consecutive DP World Tour events and also finished 2nd at the International Series Oman. In his three LIV starts this year, Louis has finished T8 at LIV Mayakoba, 50th at LIV Las Vegas and T2 at LIV Jeddah.

Louis is relatively short off the tee and that won’t hurt him this week. He is one of the best putters and scrambler on LIV, and his silky-smooth swing looks as dialed in as ever at the moment. He’s yet to win a LIV event, but a victory for Louis seems imminent.

Patrick Reed +5000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Reed is another play who’s yet to win a LIV event but has been a winner throughout his entire career. The former Masters champion should love Hong Kong Golf Club as it will play to his strengths on and around the greens.

Reed played on the Asian Tour this fall and finished T15 at the Hong Kong Open and T7 at the Indonesian Masters. The experience in Asia this season should be a benefit for Reed acclimating to the travel and conditions this week.

The 34-year-old should benefit from taking driver out of his hand and similar to Smith, can beat anyone in the world if the tournament become a short game competition.

*Featured Image and Stats Image courtesy of LIV Golf*

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19th Hole

‘It’s a place that I love’ – Joaquin Niemann bullish over 2024 Masters chances

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It would be hard to argue that Joaquin Niemann is one of the hottest golfers on the planet at the moment. The Chilean won the Australian Open in the fall to secure an Open Championship invitation and kicked off his 2024 LIV Golf season by winning two times in three starts.

As a result of his strong play, the 25-year-old was invited by Augusta National to play in the 2024 Masters. He revealed to GolfWRX yesterday that he’s also received an invitation to play in the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla.

Niemann told us that with how he’s playing, he’s right up there with the best golfers in the world.

“I feel like I’m playing great golf, to be winning against the best players, I feel like I might be up there.”

When we asked if he believes he could win the Masters, Niemann was optimistic.

“Yeah, it’s a place that I love. I’ve been playing good golf. Especially last year, I wasn’t playing my best golf, and I had a good week there and made triple on 11 that kind of killed me a little bit.

I feel like I’m getting more ready and more prepared every time. My game is getting better too. I know that I’m playing good enough to be in that situation that I can have a chance to win the Masters and it’s all about how I react to that situation.

So yeah, I’m going to prepare myself to be ready for that situation if it happens and I can fight for the title on the Sunday which would be awesome.”

Experience at Augusta National is always essential, and Niemann has gotten progressively better at each of his Masters starts, culminating with his best finish last year when he tied for 16th place.

Joaco has also won at Riviera, which in the past has been an indicator of players who would perform well at Augusta National. Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson are all relatively recent examples of that.

Current form has also been a strong indicator for Masters champions, and Niemann is scorching hot as the best week in golf rapidly approaches.

*Featured Image courtesy of LIV Golf*

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