Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: The lessons and legacy of Rose Zhang

Published

4 months ago

Nov 2, 2023

During her dominant college career, Zhang won 12 out of 20 starts, leading her team to the 2022 NCAA title. On May 30, Rose Zhang turned pro after spending 141 weeks as the number one amateur in the world. Then, on June 4, she won her first LPGA event in her debut appearance.

There is no doubt that Rose is a star. The question is, what does Rose tell us about our system?

The question of whether Rose Zhang will be the last great American player to emerge from college is a compelling one. Her outstanding performance in college and successful transition to the professional circuit indicate that she possesses immense talent and potential. However, the landscape of women’s golf in the U.S. presents some challenges that could impact the development of future stars like her.

Rose Zhang represents the face of the junior girls’ and women’s college golf meritocracy. She has achieved success at every level, including winning on the LPGA tour. However, the system in the U.S. for women’s golf tends to breed overconfidence and lacks the necessary guidance to produce world-class players. While outliers like Rose Zhang may emerge, the future of women’s golf is likely to remain international, unless changes are made.

Photo via Adidas Golf

As a best guess, there are about 400 junior girls in the U.S. who are plus handicaps or have the chance to break par in tournament golf. In Korea, by the same estimations, the number is close to 1,500 (4x). This means that women’s junior golf is not a meritocracy: Even the very best junior events in America have, at best, 20 percent of the best players. Adding players from Europe and Australia, it’s more likely 15 percent.

The overconfidence in the system of junior and women’s college golf is on display weekly. The vast majority of even the best junior girls and college players have limited control and diversity of shots.

On average, most elite college or junior women would have about five different stock shots, while elite men’s college players would have an arsenal of 15-plus different shots with the biggest gap in short game shots and approach.

Each week, potentially dozens of college coaches (many of whom know nothing about golf) spend tens of thousands of dollars recruiting these players. This wrongfully reaffirms to kids that their development is on track and they are special. Once in college, even the most mediocre women’s college players will be treated to four-star accommodations, steak dinners, and trips across the country. However, this pampering doesn’t necessarily lead to excellence or skill development. Instead, at best it fosters comfort and overconfidence, setting up players for failure in both the short and long term.

The emphasis in junior girls golf needs to shift towards fostering a true meritocracy where more players have the opportunity to compete against the best, including internationally allowing them to gauge their skills accurately. Coaches and instructors must focus on enhancing players’ skill sets, ensuring they possess the diversity and control of shots required to excel at the highest level.

Furthermore, the system needs to put values back at the core of junior sports. The focus on playing golf should be fostering a kid’s passion and joy, whereby using the player’s internal drive to build skill. Instead, it’s likely that the current system’s reliance on external rewards may not provide the necessary motivation for players to continuously improve, challenge themselves, and find the process ultimately rewarding.

Rose Zhang represents the very best that our system has to offer. The question is how good is our best talent? My guess is not as good as we think. I think that should give us pause and have us re-evaluate the system to make sure that not only are girls prepared for professional golf but we are teaching them the values and giving them the experience they deserve along the way.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Hong Kong betting preview: Trio of major champs primed for big week

Published

2 days ago

Mar 5, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

LIV Golf is set to begin its fourth event of the season at Hong Kong Golf Club in Hong Kong, China. This marks the first time that LIV Golf will travel to China for an event.

Hong Kong Golf Club is a par 70 measuring 6,710 yards. LIV will be using the “Fanling Course” for the event.

While speaking with Asian Tour player Travis Smyth, he gave me a rundown on what it takes to be successful at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“Hong Kong golf club, it’s pretty old school, like super short and tight. And I, I don’t think it falls into like a bomber’s hand. I think you’ll see a lot of guys hitting it to roughly the same spots on the majority of the holes. There’s a few holes where Bryson will be able to unleash a few but not many. When I played here, I hit Hybrid on Par 4’s off the tee maybe like seven times.”

Travis also said that the tight fairways and penal potential misses will keep the bombers at bay.

“It’s just that sort of course you’re hitting it like anywhere from 220 to 240 off the tee. And then from there you have a range of holes where it’s like kind of some sort of wedge or nine. It’s not very long.”

Around the green game will also be tremendously important at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“The greens are small as well and it’s usually quite hard to get up and down if you miss the greens. Someone like Cameron Smith I could see doing really well there. He played well in the international series. but just someone that’s, you know, pretty dolled in with their, their scoring clubs, he’s probably going to do well there.”

Players dialed in with their game from tee to green with control over the golf ball should fare extremely well.

“You can’t really scramble from the trees either. So, you really just have to. I’d, yeah, just whoever’s the best ball striker that week, you can’t really strap it around and fake it around there. You got to hit it straight. The tree lines are dead, there’s some hazards and stuff. It’s a short, tight quirky course, not what any of these guys are probably used to.”

Despite it being short, don’t be surprised if it gives players some real trouble.

“It should be fun viewing because there’ll be a lot of opportunities. They’ll feel like they can go low around there because it’s short but, you know, you make a few bogeys, and you get quite frustrated, and you start pushing off the tee and find some trouble and stuff. It can eat you up as well.”

Smyth finished 2nd at Hong Kong Golf Club to qualify for the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

Past Winners at Hong Kong Golf Club

2023: Ben Campbell (-19)
2022: Wade Ormsby (-17)
2018: Aaron Rai (-17)
2017: Wade Ormsby (-11)
2016: Sam Brazel (-13)
2015: Justin Rose (-19)
2014: Scott Hend (-13)
2013: Miguel Angel Jiminez (-12)

The top of the board once again will be a major threat this week. Jon Rahm is still in search of his first win on LIV and has been knocking at the door in each of his first three starts. Brooks Koepka hasn’t yet contended but is playing steady golf and has yet to shoot a round outside of the 60’s this season. Joaquin Niemann is the hottest player on the planet and has shown no signs of slowing down.

However, on a golf course that can neutralize the big hitters, this is an event that seems a bit more up for grabs than we’ve seen in the first three LIV events.

LIV Golf Stats YTD

2024 LIV Hong Kong Picks

Cameron Smith +2000 (Bet365, BetRivers)

It’s been a slow start for Cam Smith this season. In his three starts on LIV, he’s finished T8, T15, T41 and has yet to look like the Cam that is one of the best players in the world. Hong Kong Golf Club should be the perfect course fit to get the former Open Champion out of his slump.

Hong Kong Golf Club is tight off the tee, and many players won’t be able to hit driver. That will neutralize some of the best drivers of the golf ball in the field and propel players like Cam, who are almost unbeatable from fairway to green. Cam’s driver has been a weakness throughout his career, and it’s been especially pronounced this season. He’s tied for 51st in fairways hit thus far on the season. Taking driver out of his hand this week could be exactly what he needs to get on track.

Despite the poor tee balls, Smith still ranks 1st in putting and 5th in birdies made. He’s also a great scrambler, and with small greens at the course, having to get up and down is inevitable. If he can play from the fairway this week, he should have a major advantage in the other facets of the game.

Louis Oosthuizen +2000 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen should be an absolutely perfect fit for Hong Kong Golf Club. The South African has been remarkably consistent over the past few months dating back to the fall, where he won two consecutive DP World Tour events and also finished 2nd at the International Series Oman. In his three LIV starts this year, Louis has finished T8 at LIV Mayakoba, 50th at LIV Las Vegas and T2 at LIV Jeddah.

Louis is relatively short off the tee and that won’t hurt him this week. He is one of the best putters and scrambler on LIV, and his silky-smooth swing looks as dialed in as ever at the moment. He’s yet to win a LIV event, but a victory for Louis seems imminent.

Patrick Reed +5000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Reed is another play who’s yet to win a LIV event but has been a winner throughout his entire career. The former Masters champion should love Hong Kong Golf Club as it will play to his strengths on and around the greens.

Reed played on the Asian Tour this fall and finished T15 at the Hong Kong Open and T7 at the Indonesian Masters. The experience in Asia this season should be a benefit for Reed acclimating to the travel and conditions this week.

The 34-year-old should benefit from taking driver out of his hand and similar to Smith, can beat anyone in the world if the tournament become a short game competition.

*Featured Image and Stats Image courtesy of LIV Golf*

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational betting preview: Big names ready to pounce at Bay Hill

Published

3 days ago

Mar 4, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour continues its Florida Swing at Bay Hill Club & Lodge to play the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. The event has been a mainstay on Tour, appearing on the schedule every year since 1979. However, this year the tournament will be the fourth of eight “signature events” this season, which offer a $20 million prize pool.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par-72 measuring 7,454 yards featuring Bermudagrass greens. Bay Hill can play extremely difficult if the wind picks up, but the course certainly has teeth whether there is wind or not.

The event being “signature” just about guarantees that all of the top players on TOUR will be in attendance this week. Of the 55 players eligible entering last week, only Tony Finau will not be in the field.

Past Winners at Bay Hill

2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
2017: Marc Leishman (-11)
2016: Jason Day (-17)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

5 Key Stats For Bay Hill

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for Bay Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach is often the most important statistic, and this week will be no different. This is a difficult golf course, and players will be penalized for missing greens in regulation.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

Matthieu Pavon (+1.61)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.31)
Tom Hoge (+1.18)
Adam Scott (+0.93)
Tom Kim (+0.78)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

To compete at Bay Hill, golfers will need an excellent performance off the tee. Distance is important due to the length of the course and its layout, but accuracy is just as important.

We have seen recent events in which golfers can get away with bad tee shots, but Bay Hill isn’t one of those courses. The rough is extremely thick and penal, so saving par after a poor tee shot isn’t likely.

SG: OTT Over Past 24 Rounds

Rory McIlroy (+1.12)
Scottie Scheffler (+0.69)
Sam Burns (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.67)
Min Woo Lee (+0.66)

3. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Fast)

A major reason Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on TOUR is the incredibly fast greens. The Bermuda putting surfaces will be some of the fastest players see all season long.

SG: Putting (Bermuda and Fast) over past 24 rounds:

Mackenzie Hughes (+1.08)
Xander Schauffele (+0.93)
Harris English (+0.82)
Eric Cole (+0.77)
Adam Svensson (+0.69)

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

While ball-striking is in part off the tee and approach, I want the total tee-to-green package built into the model this week as it will take a well-rounded effort from tee to green to get it done at Bay Hill.

SG: BS Over Past 24 Rounds

Matthieu Pavon (+2.01)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.00)
Xander Schauffele (+1.38)
Adam Scott (+1.28)
Corey Conners (+1.21)

5. Strokes Gained: Florida

With certain players favoring different regions of the country, I’m once again going to incorporate Strokes Gained: Total in the state of Florida.

SG: Florida Over Past 36 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+2.10)
Viktor Hovland (+1.87)
Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
Justin Thomas (+1.68)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.62)

Arnold Palmer Invitational Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories discussed above — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (25%), SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Lightning (18%), SG: Ball Striking (20%) and SG: Florida (12%).

Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Adam Svensson
Sam Burns
Kurt Kitayama
Corey Conners
Justin Thomas
Cameron Young
Wyndham Clark
Tom Kim

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Rory McIlroy +900 (DraftKings)

Rory McIlroy is coming off a T22 finish at the Cognizant Classic where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (+6.44) and also gained 1.6 strokes on approach. Rory has played sparingly so far this season, so the solid finish last week in Florida was a good way for the Northern Irishman to gain some momentum heading into the signature event at Bay Hill.

Rory has been absolutely spectacular at Bay Hill throughout his career. In his last seven trips to the course, the four-time major champion is yet to finish worse than 13th. He won the event in 2018 and has finished 4th in 2017, 5th in 2020, and runner-up last season.

In his past 24 rounds, Rory ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (by a significant margin), 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida and 6th in Strokes Gained: Putting on firm and fast Bermudgrass greens.

Thus far in 2024, the big names haven’t been winning on the PGA Tour. I believe that changes with a Rory McIlroy victory at one of the world’s most iconic courses.

Tommy Fleetwood +2800 (FanDuel)

Tommy Fleetwood has played great golf in the state of Florida throughout his career. The Englishman has eight career top-10 finishes in the Sunshine State, including three of them at Bay Hill (2017, 2019 and 2021).

Although Tommy hasn’t been known as a “winner” in the United States throughout his career, it seems as if the 33-year-old turned a last season. He had ten top-ten’s worldwide including some encouraging results in big events such as T5’s at the Wells Fargo Championship and the U.S. Open. He’s also started 2024 similarly to how he played in 2023, winning the Dubai Invitational back in January. In his most recent start, Fleetwood finished 10th at the Genesis Invitational.

Tommy may have never won on American soil, but he’s taken his game to another level. He’s now one of the best players on the PGA Tour and a tough scoring, windy event in Florida would be a perfect scenario for Fleetwood to finally get that first victory in the United States.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Jeddah betting preview: Course specialist ready to steal the show in Saudi

Published

1 week ago

Feb 27, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

LIV Golf makes its third stop at Royal Greens Golf & Country Club in King Abdullah Economic City this week to play LIV Golf Jeddah.

Royal Greens Golf & Country Club is a par-72 that measures 7,010 yards. There is plenty of water on the course and it features large greens and numerous sand traps. The fairways are Zoysia grass and the greens are Paspalum. The course has hosted several prestigious events in the past including the Saudi International, LIV Golf Jeddah, the Aramco Team Series and the Aramco Saudi Ladies International. The course is undoubtedly one of the best tracks that the Middle East has to offer.

LIV Jeddah will be absolutely loaded with storylines this week. Perhaps the most exciting of them all is the return of Anthony Kim to professional golf.

Last seen at Quail Hollow in the 2012 Wells Fargo Championship, the golf world often wondered aloud what ever happened to the charismatic party boy who once played a major role in the United States 2008 Ryder Cup win at Valhalla, thrashing Ryder Cup legend Sergio Garcia 5&4 in a singles match.

Throwback to one of the most ultimate “in the zone” moments from golf history. After dispatching Sergio in the ‘08 Ryder Cup, Anthony Kim walked straight to the next tee without realising he had closed out the match. That’s focus!@ewanports

pic.twitter.com/0dDPtwzXYK

— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) August 28, 2023

Six months later, “AK” made eleven birdies in a single round at Augusta National, shooting a -7 (65). The following year, Kim would finish 3rd at The Masters.

Kim was a “can’t miss” star who was poised to be near the top of the world rankings for the next decade. Until he wasn’t.

Starting in around 2010, injuries started to derail AK, causing him to have surgery on his Achilles tendon in June of 2012.

Reportedly, the then 26-year-old cashed in on an insurance policy that paid him somewhere between $10 and $20 million, which would force him into retirement.

Twelve years later, Kim will be playing at Royal Greens Golf & Country Club beginning on Friday this week.

There is still a great deal of mystery regarding what’s occurred in the past twelve years, but reports indicate that Kim is receiving somewhere between $5 and $10 million to sign with LIV Golf.

Details aside, Kim’s return to golf should be absolutely captivating.

Anthony Kim hitting the range in Jeddah. ?

(?: @carters_golf) pic.twitter.com/smQc0lb5Ia

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 27, 2024

Past Winners at LIV Jeddah

2023: Brooks Koepka (-14)
2022: Brooks Koepka (-12)

Past Winners at the Saudi International

- 2023: Abraham Ancer (-19)
- 2022:Harold Varner III (-13)
- 2021: Dustin Johnson (-15)
- 2020: Graeme McDowell (-12)
- 2019: Dustin Johnson (-19)

The top of the odds board will be tough to beat this week. Jon Rahm has played well to start the year but still hasn’t gotten in the winner’s circle. He ought to be hungry to get it done this week. Brooks Koepka has won the event two straight years and is a force to be reckoned with. Dustin Johnson has a staggering record at Royal Greens Golf & Country Club. In six trips to the course, he’s finished in the top-8 each time including two wins and a runner-up.

Stats From LIV Las Vegas

2024 LIV Jeddah Picks

Sergio Garcia (+2500 FanDuel)

Sergio Garcia began his 2024 LIV Golf season with a bang, losing in a four-hole playoff to the Chilean superstar Joaquin Niemann at LIV Golf Mayakoba. Despite the runner-up finish, it was an encouraging start to the season for the former Masters Champion.

Garcia’s strong week didn’t directly follow him to LIV Las Vegas, where he finished 26th, but the unfamiliar course didn’t necessarily fit his skill set. Royal Greens Golf & Country Club is a relatively short course that can get extremely windy. Garcia still has the iron game to compete with the elite players in this field, and is a great wind player and shot maker.

In Sergio’s seven trips to the course, he’s finished in the top-6 three times, and finished 3rd in both of LIV’s trips to Jeddah.

The 44-year-old can still stripe it and my gut tells me he will be a part of the story late on Sunday.

Paul Casey (+3500 DraftKings)

I’ve been extremely high on Casey to kick off 2024 and thus far things have gone extremely well for the Englishman. In his two starts this season, Casey has finished in a tie for 11th and a tie for 5th, and was the first-round leader at LIV Las Vegas.

Casey has had success at Royal Greens Golf & Country Club and has finished 5th in two of his past three trips to the golf course. The 46-year-old is a superb ball striker and wind player when he’s healthy, and all signs point to him finally being back to full strength.

In Vegas, Casey led the field in birdies made (tied with a few at the top), and finished in the top ten in both fairways hit and greens in regulation.

Veterans have done well on LIV to date, and Casey may be next in line of players on the back nine of their careers who show they still have the game to compete with some of the world’s best.

Matt Wolff (+4100 FanDuel)

The mercurial Matt Wolff has seemingly found a comfortable home with the RangeGoats and has been playing his best golf to date on LIV in his two starts this season. Wolff finished 4th at LIV Las Vegas and followed that up with a tie for 7th place finish at the Asian Tour’s International Series Oman.

In his past four trips to the course, the 23-year-old (Wow! He’s still only 23?) has finished in the top-10 three times.

The Oklahoma State product was once tabbed as a future superstar, and it’s still far too early to give up on such a talented player. A win is coming soon.

Bubba Watson (+8000 FanDuel)

It’s been a long road back for Bubba Watson since he had surgery to repair his meniscus a few years ago, but the two-time Masters champion is beginning to show some signs that he may once again be healthy enough to complete.

In his two starts this season, Bubba has finished T21 (Mayakoba) and T15 (Vegas). Watson has always been a player who plays “his” tracks well, with multiple wins at Augusta, Riviera and TPC River Highlands. With a few more cracks at it, Royal Greens Golf & Country Club could certainly be one of those courses. He’s only played the course three times, but has a 2nd place finish in 2022 when he lost to Harold Varner III in a playoff.

In Vegas, Watson was 7th in the field in Greens in Regulation. When he’s on his game, there are few players more fun to watch than Bubba.

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