Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: Is your handicap a real reflection of your ability?

Published

4 months ago

Oct 18, 2023

Today’s post is somewhat of a continuation of some prior writings on the subject of the relative difficulty of the courses we play versus the difficulty of the courses the tour professionals play every week. In those articles, I’ve suggested — no, declared — that most recreational golfers are playing much a much tougher game than the tour players, based solely on the difference in strength profiles.

Today’s tour professionals are big, strong athletes who have amazingly powerful swings. Because of that power, they reduce most golf courses to a display of big drives and lots of wedge shots, and there are very few legitimate par-5 holes for them – by that I mean a hole long enough to make them position a second shot to leave a preferred approach shot to the green.

In contrast, that’s just not the course set-ups most of us face when we take to the first tee.

Being 71 years old now, I still find myself desiring the challenge of our men’s regular tees. The course presents me with a through-the-bag experience, meaning all facets of my game are tested, from wedge play to short irons to mid-irons to long irons and fairway woods. It is rare that I come off the course with even one club that I did not hit that day.

I play with many friends who are older and just do not have my distance, so they tee it from the gold, or “senior” tees. But for too many of them, that’s just not enough to let them play the game as it is designed. One friend in particular is bound and determined to be a nine handicap again, though he’s currently playing to a 23. I know his game and he moves it around pretty good for 83 years old, but he just does not have the strength to get to a nine handicap from those tees.

Just last night, I was explaining to him that he’s effectively playing a par 83 to 85 golf course, so his mid-90s scores ARE making him a nine handicap. For him, our longest par five is at least driver, two 3-woods and a mid-iron. The other two par 5s require two good 3-wood shots after his best drive to even have a chance of being on or around the green. One par 3 requires his best driver shot to have a remote chance of reaching the green, and at least 10 of the par 4 holes are out of reach with his best drive and 3-wood. If tour players had to play the game that way, I don’t think you would ever see any of them break 80.

The USGA has long pushed the idea of “tee it forward,” but I don’t think most golf courses have taken that honestly to heart and set up their courses and tee locations for their members with their relative strength profiles in mind. There will always be back tees to challenge those stronger players, but why can’t every golfer find a set of tees that gives them relatively the same challenge?

And while we’re on the subject, why are the forward tees so often labeled “seniors,” “ladies” and “super seniors”? The golf ball doesn’t know anything about you. Should our young high school star — a girl who hits it about as far as I do — play the “ladies” tees? Should my friend who’s in his forties but just doesn’t hit it very far not be allowed to play the “senior” tees if that’s where the game is the most fun and challenging?

This game is supposed to be challenging, sure, but it’s also supposed to be enjoyable and fun. And it’s supposed to offer up this measure of “par” that is difficult, but reasonable to attain, whether on any given hole or any given round.

If you are playing a set of tees that makes anything close to par golf completely out of reach, then move up to a set of tees that better fits your game.

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Terry Koehler

Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”. But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

22 Comments

Wilt

Oct 22, 2023 at 9:38 am

I play a variety of courses in my area. My general observation is that a lot of people, regardless of age should be moving up. That includes a lot of young guys who swing out of their shoes trying to get enough distance and as a result are all over the course. Most people do not reach the green or somewhere around the green in regulation. That is true on most holes. Move up and speed up!

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Jim Thomson

Oct 21, 2023 at 11:30 am

I’m 72 and the longest hitter in my regular foursome. Last year, at my insistence, we moved up one set of tees because they matched most of the criteria used for determining an appropriate course length for us and also because I was getting tired of wearing out my hybrids and fairway metals. The game is much more enjoyable now hitting short- and mid-irons into greens and instead of hitting 3-6 greens per round it’s now 6-12. My index has dropped from the high-12/low-13 range to the high-9s/low-10s, where it was five years ago. Unfortunately the same cannot be said for the other three guys who consistently hit their approach shots on par-4s and tee shots on par-3s 10 yards short of the green no matter the pin placement. I don’t get it. If you can hit your 140-yard approach shot 10 yards short, why can’t you hit a 130-yard approach on the green? The mind boggles.

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Brandon

Oct 19, 2023 at 7:41 pm

I’m 41 and move the ball pretty well, but my short game is terrible. When I play with people who want to play the whites it puts me at a big disadvantage because I’m frequently hitting half or three quarter wedge shots into par 4s when I’m much better taking a full swing. If I was going off just handicap, I should probably play the whites. But I score better and enjoy the game more from the blues.

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Stephen Lee

Oct 19, 2023 at 7:41 pm

I agree. I say golf is hard enough m, why make it harder? Lets make it easier by moving up the tee. I always encourage my group to play whites instead of blue and they are skeptical at first but at the end of the day they are all happy to have chance at par and occasional birdie. And also 3.5 hours round instead of 5 hours.

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Roy

Oct 19, 2023 at 8:53 am

I appreciate your view but I think your title is a bit misleading. Play from whatever tees you want, you’re not making a paycheck from playing golf. But if you want to truly talk about handicaps, and it being a measure of playing ability then that’s a completely different discussion. It’s independent from driving distance.

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Ned

Oct 19, 2023 at 6:12 am

I’m 80 and play from the senior tees but as I age and lose more distance I will move to the forward tees to keep enjoying this great game. I use a sim in my house and it has junior tees on most courses. This is a great idea for young people and super seniors as it runs about 3500 yards. My wife plays from they and can get on most par 4’s in 2. Every golfer should have a change to play the second shot on most par 4’s with a mid iron. This is how the game was meant to be played. I don’t think it would be much of an expense for the course only new tee markers and maybe a little dirt.

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Golf Puff

Oct 18, 2023 at 11:26 pm

Years ago, I was asked to establish new yardages for ‘senior’ tees at the private course where I worked. One thing I never really grasped was why the green (‘senior’) tees on one hole, at a par 4 for the ‘men’, played longer than the red (‘women’s’ tees) played as a par 5. There was no possible way anyone playing from the ‘senior’ tees would get within 80 yards of the green in two strokes, yet it was still regarded as a par 4. The handicap system doesn’t help here because, as a golfer moves forward with shorter tees, the associated course rating and slope drops off and does not take into consideration how far the golfers using these tees actually hit the ball. So, the ‘senior’ golfer moves up 500+ yards on the tee markers, but his handicap goes down 3 or more shots. And, there are still holes that he can’t possible reach with two of his Sunday ‘bests’.

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Chris

Oct 18, 2023 at 10:53 pm

Agree, agree, agree!! I moved up to the white tees when I turned 65 almost five years ago, and can still break 80 from there. But I know that any par 4 over 400 yards is really a par 5 for me now, and the shirt game has to save me.
But why, on a 430 yard par 4, are the white tees only 20 yards ahead of the blues? And there are courses without “senior” tees, although seniors play more golf than any other demographic.

Thanks for a great article. Golf should be fun first, challenging second.

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Bob Jones

Oct 18, 2023 at 10:43 pm

Twelve years ago,when I was 62, I played to a 9.5 handicap. Now, I have the same skills. I hit the ball straight, and am just as good around the green. But because I can’t hit the ball as far anymore, my handicap makes it look like I took up the game last week because I’ve moved up to the tees that are rated much lower so I can make the same scores from as before. Something about that isn’t right.

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Mason

Oct 18, 2023 at 3:12 pm

“he moves it around pretty good for 83 years old, but he just does not have the strength to get to a nine handicap from those tees.”

It is true that you can get potentially lower your handicap from playing a specific set of tees, but usually not by much, I’d estimate a stroke or two on average, and not much more BECAUSE THE RATING DECREASES AS THE DISTANCE OF EACH SET OF TEES DECREASES and adjusts your handicap. So yeah the author’s friend may shoot a few strokes less from the forward tees, but most of that gain will not be reflected in his handicap due to the decreased rating. In fact I wouldn’t surprise me if many golfers handicaps would actually go down if they played longer tees, couldn’t reach greens, and simply played smart. They could effectively hit easy layups, short irons/wedges on and make a lot of bogeys instead of trying to hit greens with long irons and fairway woods, putting themselves in bad spots, penalty strokes… Even if their score was a stroke or two higher, their handicap would sti

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1 hcp

Oct 18, 2023 at 1:54 pm

I am a 1 hcp and I can’t remember the last time I played from the back tees. I can’t remember the last time I hit a par5 in two, so why would I add an additional 200 meters to the course length? A buddy of mine is a plus handicap and he plays solely from the longest tees because he’s capable of hitting one par5 with the driver and the hybrid. The idea I am pointing out is that everyone should play their own length so that they are reaching par3 in one shot, par4 in 2, and par5 in 3 shots. Are you a 70 years old who plays from red tees? Who cares?

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Sean Gregory

Oct 18, 2023 at 12:21 pm

In addition, I regularly encounter forward tee boxes 10-20 yards ahead of the white tees. What is the point of 10-20 yards? This is no advantage. Develop tee boxes that really give an advantage to move up.

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- Chuck
  
  Oct 18, 2023 at 1:11 pm
  
  There is not supposed to be an “advantage”. The point is equity. The tees are supposed to be separated by using average driving distance. The average senior drive is about 30 yards less than the average male. The same for the forward tees. The objective is to have equitable tee shots that end up in relatively the same place, equalizing the approach.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Golf Puff
    
    Oct 18, 2023 at 11:19 pm
    
    No, I have to disagree. If my drives are shorter than another golfers, but the tees are only adjusted for this distance, then my approach will play 2-4 clubs longer than the other golfers. That is not equity, it is false equity. If you don’t believe me, let’s go play when I am hitting wedge approaches and you are hitting 6 irons.
    
    Reply Report comment
  - James Kendzior
    
    Oct 18, 2023 at 11:51 pm
    
    Except that ending up in relatively the same place doesn’t equalize the approach since the person who hits it 20 or 30 yards farther than me with his driver is probably going to hit a couple of clubs less than I need for the approach shot from the same distance.
    
    Another problem is that a lot of the courses I play have regular tees that are too long and senior tees that are too short. It’s almost like the courses don’t want you to be able to play the proper length.
    
    Reply Report comment
  - garyt
    
    Oct 19, 2023 at 9:35 am
    
    Not true at all. If the forward tees allow a person to end up at the same place as my drive from the back tees he’s at a severe disadvantage. I may have a 7 iron into the green while he’ll have 4 hybrid. The drives of a person playing the forward tees should finish well ahead of the drive of the person playing the back tees so they both have relatively the same club in.
    
    Reply Report comment
H

Oct 18, 2023 at 11:29 am

The handicap system is completely skewed and incorrect for the public. It doesn’t relate anywhere near to what the Pros are doing, even for scratch guys, and so the whole index and rating systems need to be revised, as do golf course set ups. But they won’t – it’s there to make money for everybody, the courses and the equipment manufacturers, is why it is the way it is. If they ball flies farther, and there is chance that you would lose more of them, then they would sell more of them. If they can write a narrative that makes people believe that the latest models are better than the previous and helps them hit them farther, they would sell more of them. They have people believing that a “nice” or “good” courses are in better condition generally, but are also more difficult with slick greens and more numerous penalty areas, but why would you pay more to lose more balls and shoot higher scores? Those are the tricks of the trade, not the things that make golf more fun to play.

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Fredo

Oct 18, 2023 at 11:24 am

Praise the lord! You are absolutely correct that courses should set up tees more fairly. I will be turning 69 in a week and contend with longer approach shots that are testing my nerves LOL. It’s all about saving par with my short game now. It is difficult to increase clubhead speed so I am constantly reevaluating my swing and sticking to the basics. More often than not, as I age my swing gets sloppy, and that’s when I go deep into the weeds and try to be more efficient like the women on the LPGA do.

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- John Harrison
  
  Oct 18, 2023 at 12:13 pm
  
  Absolutely spot on. I became tired of slugging it out from the white tees all the time. I now play from the gold tees once a week and find it to be quite a bit more fun. I enjoy being able to putt for birdies on par fours that I can’t get much closer than 30 yards from the green from the white tees.
  
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dixiedoc

Oct 18, 2023 at 10:54 am

Interesting piece. As a 78 y/o avid golfer I found it difficult to move up but as I have I have come to find that I enjoy the game more. I will never be a single digit handicapper again but that’s vanity and not reality. My one complaint is that my club caters to the “back tee” guys ever though us seniors spend vastly more money at the club. The Gold and Silver tees are not kept well and are sort of a ragtag mound of dirt on the fairway whereas the back tees are well groomed with nice grass. Clubs should pay attention to the members who actually support them.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi: 2024 WM Phoenix Open First Round Leader picks

Published

3 days ago

Feb 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The Waste Management Phoenix Open begins on Thursday in what is sure to be one of the most exciting events of the year. The PGA Tour is back to playing one course per event, which I find to be much more conducive to first round leader betting.

Related: Vincenzi’s 2024 WM Phoenix Open betting preview: Star names to shine in the desert

In the past five editions of the tournament, there have been nine first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the nine, five have come from the morning wave, and four have come from the afternoon wave. It appears there is no real advantage to either starting time historically but that can always be influenced by weather.

As of Tuesday, the wind looks as if it may be a factor during round one. The early starters should see winds 8 MPH with gusts up to 18 MPH. The afternoon starters will have the slightly more difficult draw. Winds will be around 16 MPH with gusts up to 22 MPH. For this reason, I’d slightly favor AM starters but wouldn’t rule out the PM wave completely.

Waste Management Phoenix Open First-Round-Leader Selections

Keith Mitchell +9000 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 12:22 p.m. Local Time

TPC Scottsdale is the type of course where Keith Mitchell’s skill set could propel him up the leaderboard. He will be able to let it fly off the tee and is always capable of getting a hot putter. Mitchell has had some success in the event, finishing 10th in 2022 while shooting four rounds in the 60’s. He also finished 16th in 2020.

K.H. Lee +10000 (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM)

First-Round Tee Time: 12:55 p.m. Local Time

K.H. Lee famously has played great golf at TPC courses, and TPC Scottsdale is no different. The South Korean came agonizingly close to victory at the event back in 2021, finishing one shot behind Brooks Koepka.

Lee missed the cut at The Farmers but had back-to-back top-30 finishes in his previous two starts at some easier courses in Waialae CC and PGA West. K.H. shot three rounds of 66 at the course when he contended so he’s no stranger to a low round at TPC Scottsdale.

Sam Ryder +12500 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 12:00 p.m. Local Time

Sam Ryder has been a boom-or-bust player, which is exactly what we’re looking for in a first-round leader bet. The 34-year-old recently had a hot stretch with the irons and is always a go-low candidate on easier courses.

Last year, Ryder finished 20th at the event, and he finished 23rd in 2022, but had a 2nd round 64, which would likely be good enough for FRL if he were able to repeat.

Victor Perez +15000 (BetMGM)

First-Round Tee Time: 9:10 a.m. Local Time

Victor Perez hasn’t played much in 2024, so this is more of a gut play than anything else. He missed the cut in his only start at the Farmers Insurance Open but was able to still gain strokes with his irons despite the disappointing finish.

Perez was playing great in the fall and finished 8th at the DPWT Championship. A week on the PGA Tour at Torrey Pines should have been enough to get his feet wet and feel comfortable this week in Phoenix on a course where his strong iron play could help him shoot a low round.

Adrien Dumont De Chessart+20000 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 1:50 p.m. Local Time

This is yet another gut play with Dumont De Chessart. The 23-year-old from Belgium has enormous upside and one of the more talented young players in the world but has struggled to start his PGA Tour career.

De Chessart opened his Farmers Insurance Open with a first-round 68, which was a solid score on a tough track. The laid-back atmosphere of TPC Scottsdale and the scoreable layout could be enough for the rookie to find the form that made him a threat to win multiple Korn Ferry Tour events at the end of last season.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 WM Phoenix Open betting preview: Star names to shine in the desert

Published

4 days ago

Feb 5, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After a windy week at Pebble Beach, golf fans will be treated to an outstanding field at one of the best tournaments for viewing of the season. The raucous crowd at the famous 16th hole followed by a memorable finishing stretch of holes has turned into a Super Bowl Sunday staple leading up to the big game.

The Waste Management Phoenix Open is no longer a “signature event”, as it was last year, but it has still attracted a very solid group of players. The field will feature plenty of stars including Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Sahith Theegala and Adam Scott.

TPC Scottsdale is a par-71 that measures 7,261 yards and features Bermudagrass greens (although they are much more of a blend rather than pure Bermudagrass).

Past Winners at the Waste Management Phoenix Open

2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-22)
2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
2018: Gary Woodland (-18)
2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14)
2015: Brooks Koepka (-15)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for TPC Scottsdale to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Going forward, I’ll be using the brand-new Bet The Number data engine to develop my custom model. All statistics listed come directly from the PGA Tour. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATT for $5 off the Monthly and $50 off the Annual Subscription.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach will once again be very important this week.

Last year, Scottie Scheffler gained 9.1 strokes on approach on his way to victory. In 2021, Brooks Koepka was second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, trailing only Jordan Spieth, who finished fourth. In 2020, Webb Simpson ranked first in the field in the category en route to a playoff victory over Tony Finau.

The greens are relatively flat, and pins should be accessible.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in Past 24 Rounds (per round):

Xander Schauffele (+1.1)
Mark Hubbard (+.91)
Taylor Montgomery (+.90)
Scottie Scheffler (+.89)
Beau Hossler (+.86)

SG: Off the Tee

TPC Scottsdale is not an overly long golf course. Distance off the tee is not absolutely essential, but it is a definite asset. A good combination of distance and accuracy should be the recipe this week, with distance still being a bit more important.

SG: OTT in Past 24 Rounds (per round):

Kevin Yu (+1.0)
Scottie Scheffler (+.95)
Keith Mitchell (+.91)
Byeong Hun An (+.86)
Jhonnatan Vegas (+.81)

Strokes Gained: Putting

Greens tend to get really firm and fast in the Arizona desert. Statistically, players will have to putt well to contend.

Strokes Gained: Putting in last 24 rounds:

Min Woo Lee (+1.3)
Sam Ryder (+1.3)
Chad Ramey (+1.2)
Taylor Montgomery (+1.1)
Matt Kuchar (+1.0)

Greens in Regulation Percentage

Statistics from previous years at TPC Scottsdale say Greens in Regulation: Gained at the course is much more indicative of the winner at this tournament than TOUR average.

With many bunkers and firm dry areas around the greens, missing the putting surface can be consequential.

Total Greens in Regulation Gained: Gained in Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+82.8%)
Andrew Putnam (+82.6%)
Corey Conners (+80.7%)
Lucas Glover (+80.3%)
Erik Van Rooyen (+80.2%)

Bogey Avoidance

With the winner in the high teens under par on average, making a lot of bogeys will make it incredibly difficult to contend.

Bogey Avoidance: Past 24 Rounds

Ryan Moore (+7.1)
Andrew Putnam (+7.9)
Scottie Scheffler (+8.3)
Alex Noren (+8.3)
Viktor Hovland (+8.4)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (28%), SG: OTT (25%), SG: Putting (17%), GIR %(18%) and Bogey Avoidance (12%).

Scottie Scheffler (+550)
Xander Schauffele (+1100)
Corey Conners (+7000)
Sam Ryder (+18000)
Adam Svensson (+13000)
Erik Van Rooyen (+11000)
Viktor Hovland (+1100)
Chesson Hadley (+10000)
Taylor Montgomery (+8000)
Max Homa (+1600)

2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas has been on fire to kick off his 2024 season. He finished 3rd at the American Express and put another great week together at Pebble Beach, finishing in a tie for 6th. Now he will be heading to a course that he absolutely loves in search of his first victory since the 2022 PGA Championship.

Thomas has played some great golf at TPC Scottsdale. He finished 4th at the course last year and 8th in 2022, gaining 7.1 strokes on approach, which was second in the field behind only Bubba Watson. Additionally, Thomas has third place finishes in both 2019 and 2020 as well as a 13th place finish in 2021.

The Waste Management Phoenix Open is an event I’ve always thought Justin Thomas was destined to win. As we’ve seen at both the Ryder Cup and the President’s Cup, “JT” is a player who thrives off of energy from the crowd, and he’ll certainly get his fair share of that this week in Scottsdale.

Jordan Spieth +2200 (DraftKings)

Spieth hit the ball pretty well at Pebble Beach but just couldn’t get many putts to fall. The former Masters champion has played well at TPC Scottsdale throughout his career, and this should be another event where he has a chance to contend, especially with the field a bit weaker this week.

Last year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Spieth finished in 6th place and gained 11.5 strokes from tee to green including an incredible 8.4 of those strokes on approach, which was second only to the winner Scottie Scheffler. He also has past finishes of 4th in 2021 and 9th in 2017.

Spieth has had a strong start to his season, finishing 3rd at The Sentry prior to a mediocre week at Pebble Beach. Spieth in contention would be a great scene on Super Bowl Sunday.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am betting preview: Patrick Cantlay to hit form at iconic venue

Published

2 weeks ago

Jan 29, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to historic Pebble Beach this week to play the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

The tournament will be much different this season than what fans are used to, with plenty of welcome changes to the event. The 2024 edition of the tournament will be a “Signature Event” which means Pebble Beach will finally get the star-studded field it deserves and a prize pool of $20 million, with $3.6 million going to the winner as well as 700 FedExCup points.

This should be one of the most exciting events of the season, as we will finally get to see many of the best players in the world play at one of the world’s most iconic golf courses over the weekend.

As Johnny Miller once said, “They say it’s the greatest meeting of land and sea in the world. This course was heaven designed”.

The event has previously utilized three courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club, but with the smaller field this year, we will now only see Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill Golf Course. Monterey Peninsula was the easiest of the three courses, so it’s removal should make scoring more difficult overall. It will be a no-cut event, with each golfer playing one round at Spyglass Hill and three at Pebble Beach. The Pro-Am portion of the event will only take place Thursday and Friday.

The field this week is made up of 70 players including the top 50 from last year’s FedExCup standings, the top 10 available and not otherwise exempt from current FedExCup standings (Aon Next 10), and the top five available and not otherwise exempt FedExCup points earners from the swings leading up to each Signature Event (Aon Swing 5). Adam Scott, Webb Simpson, Maverick McNealy and Peter Malnati have also received sponsor’s exemptions.

Pebble Beach Golf Links is a par-72 measuring 6,828 yards and featuring Poa Annua greens. Spyglass Hill is a par-72 measuring 7,035 yards, and Monterey Peninsula is a par-71 measuring 6,958 yards.

Past Winners at The Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am

2023: Justin Rose (-18)
2022: Tom Hoge (-19)
2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17)
2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22)

Strokes Gained: Approach

Unsurprisingly, approach grades out as the most important statistic for Pebble Beach.

On a shorter course, approaches to the green are understandably more indicative of success than smashing it off of the tee. With very small greens, Pebble Beach is undoubtedly a second-shot golf course.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in Past 24 Rounds (per round):

Mark Hubbard (+.91)
Taylor Montgomery (+.90)
Xander Schauffele (+.84)
Chris Kirk (+.84)
Scottie Scheffler (+.77)

SG: Around the Green

With extremely small greens, Pebble Beach will be suited for players who are good around the green after they inevitably have to scramble for par.

SG: ARG in Past 24 Rounds (per round):

J.J. Spaun (+.61)
Russell Henley (+.57)
Sahith Theegala (+.51)
Beau Hossler (+.45)
Jordan Spieth (+.39)

Strokes Gained: Putting (West Coast POA)

With the course being so short, one of its main defenses is its fast Poa Annua greens. Strokes Gained: Putting has historically been extremely important here, as evidenced by former winners (Spieth, Mickelson, Snedeker).

SG: Putting (West Coast POA) Last 24 Rounds (per round):

Denny McCarthy (+2.2)
Max Homa (+1.9)
Peter Malnati (+1.4)
S.H. Kim (+1.3)
Harris English (+1.1)

Course History

Pebble Beach has historically been a specialist’s course. Every winner of this event since 2006 has a top-21 finish in a previous appearance.

Total Strokes Gained (Pebble Beach): Gained per Round in Past 24 Rounds

Maverick McNealy (+2.6)
Taylor Moore (+2.1)
Jordan Spieth (+1.7)
Patrick Cantlay (+1.5)
Jason Day (+1.4)

Approach 125-150

Pebble Beach is extremely short, and players will be faced with plenty of wedge shots into the course’s tiny greens.

Approach 125-150 past 24 rounds (per round):

Taylor Montgomery (14.9)
Mark Hubbard (15.8)
Beau Hossler (16.1)
Max Homa (16.6)
Cameron Young (16.7)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (28%), Approach 125-150 (18%), SG: Putting West Coast Poa (18%), Course History (18%) and ARG (18%).

Max Homa (+2000)
Taylor Montgomery (+10000)
J.T. Poston (+6600)
Beau Hossler (+8000)
Xander Schauffele (+1800)
Scottie Scheffler (+850)
Brendon Todd (+8000)
Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
Collin Morikawa (+2200)
Alex Noren (+7500)

2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Cantlay hasn’t been playing his best golf to begin the 2024 season, which is why we are getting a palatable number on the 31-year-old. Cantlay absolutely loves Pebble Beach and hasn’t finished worse than 21st in his last four trips to the course. He finished in a tie for 3rd in 2021 and a tie for 2nd in 2022. In 2021, Cantlay tied a course record (62) at Pebble Beach, matching David Duval’s round in 1997. He was born in Long Beach, California and attended UCLA, which has clearly translated to his performance in the state throughout his career.

Cantlay has been struggling this year but has gotten progressively better in each start in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach, and the putter has been solid in the early part of the season. It hasn’t been pretty, but I believe after shaking the rust off Cantlay will find himself in contention at a golf course he’s very comfortable at.

Jordan Spieth +2000 (BetRivers)

With the exception of Augusta National, there might not be a course on Tour more suited to the strengths of Jordan Spieth.

He struggled last year, but prior to that he was in contention in just about every start at Pebble Beach. He finished 2nd in 2022, 3rd in 2021 and tied for 9th in 2021. He also won the event in 2017 and had two additional top ten finishes in 2014 and 2015.

Spieth is playing well to begin his 2024 campaign, finishing 3rd in his only start at The Sentry while gaining strokes on the field in all significant categories. With LIV Golf kicking off its season this week, the Tour would like nothing more than one of its most recognizable stars in contention at one of the world’s most iconic courses over the weekend.

Byeong Hun An +6600 (BetRivers)

In his two starts in 2024, Byeong Hun An has finished 4th at the Sentry and lost in a playoff at the Sony Open. As frustrating as it was to be on the losing side of his short playoff miss, it’s undeniable that An is currently playing the best golf of his career.

In his start at the Sony, the South Korean gained 8.3 strokes from tee to green and despite the short miss, exhibited the ability to putt on West Coast POA, gaining 3.4 strokes putting.

An played in the event last year and finished 37th. However, he played in the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach and finished in a tie for 16th, showing he can compete at the course when conditions are tough.

The jury is still out on whether or not An can hit a clutch putt when it matters most, but he’s playing too well to ignore right now.

Beau Hossler +7000 (FanDuel)

Beau Hossler loves Pebble Beach. The 27-year-old grew up in Rancho Santa Margarita, California, which is only a few hours away from Pebble Beach.

In 2022, Hossler finished in solo third place at last year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and gained 4.1 strokes putting in two rounds at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Last year, he finished 11th. While he struggles at times to keep up with the best players in the world at longer tracks, he can catch a hot putter in this event.

Hossler has had a strong start to his season, finishing 6th at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. The once “can’t miss” prospect has a chance this week to achieve a career defining win at a course that suits him perfectly.

Adam Scott +8000 (FanDuel)

Adam Scott is making his PGA Tour debut this week, but he’s quietly been getting reps throughout the early part of 2024. A few weeks ago, the Australian played in the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and finished in a tie for 7th place. He also played three other times in the fall and finished in a tie for 7th (Bermuda), 6th (Australian PGA), and a tie for 4th (Australian Open).

With Monterey Peninsula out of the mix and cold/rainy weather incoming, I anticipate the scores to be relatively high over the weekend. That should favor Scott and his dependable ball striking. In the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, Scott finished in a tie for 7th place. With difficult conditions and a strong field, the event might play similar to that Pebble Beach rather than the Pro-Am setup. The 41-year-old has played well in California in the past and has a win at Riviera and a runner-up at Torrey Pines.

At long odds, Scott is worth a shot this week.

Patrick Rodgers +150000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Rodgers hasn’t played well at Pebble Beach over the last four tries, but he did finish in a tie for 8th at the 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

In his three starts this season, Rodgers has finished 14th (Sentry), 24th (Sony), and a tie for 9th (Farmers Insurance Open). Last week at Torrey Pines, the former Stanford Cardinal gained 2.5 strokes off the tee and 1.1 on approach.

Pebble Beach may not be an ideal fit for Rodgers on paper, but he’s showing signs of consistency from the 31-year-old that we’ve been waiting to see for many years. His ability to putt on West Coast POA and strong current form makes him worth the chance at triple-digit odds.

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