19th Hole
Tyrrell Hatton reveals why he needed to rescue LIV teammate during hotel check-in for this week’s event
The LIV Golf series moves onto Las Vegas this week for its second event of the year, and apparently Caleb Suratt had a tricky time checking into his hotel room.
The youngest player on LIV was playing at the University of Tennessee as a Freshman this year, and suddenly found himself as the newest teammate of Jon Rahm on his new team, Legion XIII. Tyrrell Hatton, who also joined Legion XIII recently, told the story of when he saw Suratt trying to check into the hotel in Las Vegas this week, telling media:
“Checking in yesterday, I kind of kept looking over to Caleb, and he was looking over at me quite nervous, so once I finished checking in, I sort of wandered over to make sure that he was OK, and as I got there, the lady checking him in said that he needed someone over 21 to be on the reservation to allow him to stay in the room. I had to hand over my driver’s license to make sure he had a bed for the night.”
Last week, Legion XIII went on to win the team competition, and Suratt contributed enormously, shooting -4 on Sunday when all four team scores were counted towards the total.
More from the 19th Hole
- Report: Viktor Hovland surprisingly splits with swing coach ahead of 2024 season
- Phil Mickelson urges fans not to ‘pile on’ Rory over latest LIV comments and calls for end to hostilities
- Brooks Koepka and Jena Sims lead golfers’ New Year celebrations with raunchy display
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19th Hole
Vincenzi: 2024 WM Phoenix Open First Round Leader picks
The Waste Management Phoenix Open begins on Thursday in what is sure to be one of the most exciting events of the year. The PGA Tour is back to playing one course per event, which I find to be much more conducive to first round leader betting.
In the past five editions of the tournament, there have been nine first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the nine, five have come from the morning wave, and four have come from the afternoon wave. It appears there is no real advantage to either starting time historically but that can always be influenced by weather.
As of Tuesday, the wind looks as if it may be a factor during round one. The early starters should see winds 8 MPH with gusts up to 18 MPH. The afternoon starters will have the slightly more difficult draw. Winds will be around 16 MPH with gusts up to 22 MPH. For this reason, I’d slightly favor AM starters but wouldn’t rule out the PM wave completely.
Waste Management Phoenix Open First-Round-Leader Selections
Keith Mitchell +9000 (Bet365)
First-Round Tee Time: 12:22 p.m. Local Time
TPC Scottsdale is the type of course where Keith Mitchell’s skill set could propel him up the leaderboard. He will be able to let it fly off the tee and is always capable of getting a hot putter. Mitchell has had some success in the event, finishing 10th in 2022 while shooting four rounds in the 60’s. He also finished 16th in 2020.
K.H. Lee +10000 (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM)
First-Round Tee Time: 12:55 p.m. Local Time
K.H. Lee famously has played great golf at TPC courses, and TPC Scottsdale is no different. The South Korean came agonizingly close to victory at the event back in 2021, finishing one shot behind Brooks Koepka.
Lee missed the cut at The Farmers but had back-to-back top-30 finishes in his previous two starts at some easier courses in Waialae CC and PGA West. K.H. shot three rounds of 66 at the course when he contended so he’s no stranger to a low round at TPC Scottsdale.
Sam Ryder +12500 (Bet365)
First-Round Tee Time: 12:00 p.m. Local Time
Sam Ryder has been a boom-or-bust player, which is exactly what we’re looking for in a first-round leader bet. The 34-year-old recently had a hot stretch with the irons and is always a go-low candidate on easier courses.
Last year, Ryder finished 20th at the event, and he finished 23rd in 2022, but had a 2nd round 64, which would likely be good enough for FRL if he were able to repeat.
Victor Perez +15000 (BetMGM)
First-Round Tee Time: 9:10 a.m. Local Time
Victor Perez hasn’t played much in 2024, so this is more of a gut play than anything else. He missed the cut in his only start at the Farmers Insurance Open but was able to still gain strokes with his irons despite the disappointing finish.
Perez was playing great in the fall and finished 8th at the DPWT Championship. A week on the PGA Tour at Torrey Pines should have been enough to get his feet wet and feel comfortable this week in Phoenix on a course where his strong iron play could help him shoot a low round.
Adrien Dumont De Chessart+20000 (Bet365)
First-Round Tee Time: 1:50 p.m. Local Time
This is yet another gut play with Dumont De Chessart. The 23-year-old from Belgium has enormous upside and one of the more talented young players in the world but has struggled to start his PGA Tour career.
De Chessart opened his Farmers Insurance Open with a first-round 68, which was a solid score on a tough track. The laid-back atmosphere of TPC Scottsdale and the scoreable layout could be enough for the rookie to find the form that made him a threat to win multiple Korn Ferry Tour events at the end of last season.
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19th Hole
LIV Golf analyst: Majors on the verge of becoming “asterisk” majors
With more players heading to LIV Golf and the OWGR still refusing to budge, many critics are questioning whether or not the major championships will still be a true test of who the best players in the world.
Last week, with a Signature Event at Pebble Beach being canceled on Sunday due to weather, LIV Golf found itself on the world stage. Chilean Joaquin Niemann was able to fend off Jon Rahm and eventually, Sergio Garcia in four playoff holes, to prevail at Mayakoba with no daylight left to spare. Niemann’s win reminded many people of how talented he is and the fact that, as it stands, will only be playing in one or two of the majors next year.
Niemann qualified for the Open Championship with his win in Australia in the fall and has a real chance at being top 100 in the OWGR to play in the PGA Championship. However, he currently is not in the Masters field and would have to attend a qualifier to make it into the U.S. Open.
LIV Golf analyst, Jerry Foltz, is amongst those who are questioning whether or not the majors will have an “asterisk” if some LIV players aren’t in the field.
“I think the majors are really close to – if not already on the verge of – becoming asterisk majors, in my opinion.”
“If they don’t do what their institutions have always guaranteed – and that is try to gather the greatest players in the world to compete for the most coveted titles – then I think as long as this political stronghold over the world rankings continues to be allowed to be the barometer by which players are entered into the majors, I think they become a little bit lessened to the historical significance of those championships.”
“But it’s not too late. All you’d have to do is create a different category with a fair ranking system and add it to the current system.”
With plenty still up in the air, professional golf once again finds itself in quite the predicament.
More from the 19th Hole
- Report: Viktor Hovland surprisingly splits with swing coach ahead of 2024 season
- Phil Mickelson urges fans not to ‘pile on’ Rory over latest LIV comments and calls for end to hostilities
- Brooks Koepka and Jena Sims lead golfers’ New Year celebrations with raunchy display
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 WM Phoenix Open betting preview: Star names to shine in the desert
After a windy week at Pebble Beach, golf fans will be treated to an outstanding field at one of the best tournaments for viewing of the season. The raucous crowd at the famous 16th hole followed by a memorable finishing stretch of holes has turned into a Super Bowl Sunday staple leading up to the big game.
The Waste Management Phoenix Open is no longer a “signature event”, as it was last year, but it has still attracted a very solid group of players. The field will feature plenty of stars including Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Sahith Theegala and Adam Scott.
TPC Scottsdale is a par-71 that measures 7,261 yards and features Bermudagrass greens (although they are much more of a blend rather than pure Bermudagrass).
Past Winners at the Waste Management Phoenix Open
- 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
- 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-22)
- 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
- 2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
- 2018: Gary Woodland (-18)
- 2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
- 2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14)
- 2015: Brooks Koepka (-15)
Let’s take a look at several metrics for TPC Scottsdale to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:
Going forward, I’ll be using the brand-new Bet The Number data engine to develop my custom model. All statistics listed come directly from the PGA Tour. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATT for $5 off the Monthly and $50 off the Annual Subscription.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach will once again be very important this week.
Last year, Scottie Scheffler gained 9.1 strokes on approach on his way to victory. In 2021, Brooks Koepka was second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, trailing only Jordan Spieth, who finished fourth. In 2020, Webb Simpson ranked first in the field in the category en route to a playoff victory over Tony Finau.
The greens are relatively flat, and pins should be accessible.
Total Strokes Gained: Approach in Past 24 Rounds (per round):
- Xander Schauffele (+1.1)
- Mark Hubbard (+.91)
- Taylor Montgomery (+.90)
- Scottie Scheffler (+.89)
- Beau Hossler (+.86)
SG: Off the Tee
TPC Scottsdale is not an overly long golf course. Distance off the tee is not absolutely essential, but it is a definite asset. A good combination of distance and accuracy should be the recipe this week, with distance still being a bit more important.
SG: OTT in Past 24 Rounds (per round):
- Kevin Yu (+1.0)
- Scottie Scheffler (+.95)
- Keith Mitchell (+.91)
- Byeong Hun An (+.86)
- Jhonnatan Vegas (+.81)
Strokes Gained: Putting
Greens tend to get really firm and fast in the Arizona desert. Statistically, players will have to putt well to contend.
Strokes Gained: Putting in last 24 rounds:
- Min Woo Lee (+1.3)
- Sam Ryder (+1.3)
- Chad Ramey (+1.2)
- Taylor Montgomery (+1.1)
- Matt Kuchar (+1.0)
Greens in Regulation Percentage
Statistics from previous years at TPC Scottsdale say Greens in Regulation: Gained at the course is much more indicative of the winner at this tournament than TOUR average.
With many bunkers and firm dry areas around the greens, missing the putting surface can be consequential.
Total Greens in Regulation Gained: Gained in Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+82.8%)
- Andrew Putnam (+82.6%)
- Corey Conners (+80.7%)
- Lucas Glover (+80.3%)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+80.2%)
Bogey Avoidance
With the winner in the high teens under par on average, making a lot of bogeys will make it incredibly difficult to contend.
Bogey Avoidance: Past 24 Rounds
- Ryan Moore (+7.1)
- Andrew Putnam (+7.9)
- Scottie Scheffler (+8.3)
- Alex Noren (+8.3)
- Viktor Hovland (+8.4)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG: App (28%), SG: OTT (25%), SG: Putting (17%), GIR %(18%) and Bogey Avoidance (12%).
- Scottie Scheffler (+550)
- Xander Schauffele (+1100)
- Corey Conners (+7000)
- Sam Ryder (+18000)
- Adam Svensson (+13000)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+11000)
- Viktor Hovland (+1100)
- Chesson Hadley (+10000)
- Taylor Montgomery (+8000)
- Max Homa (+1600)
2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open Picks
Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)
Justin Thomas has been on fire to kick off his 2024 season. He finished 3rd at the American Express and put another great week together at Pebble Beach, finishing in a tie for 6th. Now he will be heading to a course that he absolutely loves in search of his first victory since the 2022 PGA Championship.
Thomas has played some great golf at TPC Scottsdale. He finished 4th at the course last year and 8th in 2022, gaining 7.1 strokes on approach, which was second in the field behind only Bubba Watson. Additionally, Thomas has third place finishes in both 2019 and 2020 as well as a 13th place finish in 2021.
The Waste Management Phoenix Open is an event I’ve always thought Justin Thomas was destined to win. As we’ve seen at both the Ryder Cup and the President’s Cup, “JT” is a player who thrives off of energy from the crowd, and he’ll certainly get his fair share of that this week in Scottsdale.
Jordan Spieth +2200 (DraftKings)
Spieth hit the ball pretty well at Pebble Beach but just couldn’t get many putts to fall. The former Masters champion has played well at TPC Scottsdale throughout his career, and this should be another event where he has a chance to contend, especially with the field a bit weaker this week.
Last year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Spieth finished in 6th place and gained 11.5 strokes from tee to green including an incredible 8.4 of those strokes on approach, which was second only to the winner Scottie Scheffler. He also has past finishes of 4th in 2021 and 9th in 2017.
Spieth has had a strong start to his season, finishing 3rd at The Sentry prior to a mediocre week at Pebble Beach. Spieth in contention would be a great scene on Super Bowl Sunday.
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